Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

I guess this forum is never going to be a place of teaching, so why come down to the newbie level...

I mean this in the nicest possible way Goat and its not meant as a criticism but I think you need to slightly readjust your attitude if you're going to make a real go of this.

When you're manual trading you seem to think there's some kind of conspiracy and that people are keeping stuff from you (they aren't) but automated trading is a completely different story. People work for months even years on their automation and their not going to share their secrets with anyone and nor should they.

My advice to you would be to stick to manual trading until you get a better understanding of the market. If you think manual trading is frustrating you'll probably find automated trading a 1000 times more frustrating.

As for your stop loss query I think 3 ticks is too tight unless you're trading something like the Grand National, 5 ticks would be more sensible but even then you wont make a profit long term unless you're very selective with your entry criteria. And getting your entry criteria right comes down to a better understanding of the market. So like I said I'd stick to manual trading, if you're getting frustrated its probably down to overstaking, reduce your stakes and if you're still getting frustrated then you may have to admit that trading isn't for you.

Yeah, see what you mean about Automation,
Today's results 15 markets and 100% losses!
How's that even possible!?

[goat68]

I think I'm tackling Automation from the difficult side first, I was working on scalping and I think the noise gets me every time...
I'm going to look at a longer timeframe and swing, I do have one setup I think from manual trading that might be +even, but it will be tricky to automate, but I'll try

[goat68]

I think I'm tackling Automation from the difficult side first, I was working on scalping and I think the noise gets me every time...
I'm going to look at a longer timeframe and swing, I do have one setup I think from manual trading that might be +ev, but it will be tricky to automate, but I'll try

[CallumPerry]

I've enjoyed glancing at this thread from time to time, great to see you've joined the automated trading side like me

With automation, you need to find one very specific niche you'd like to take advantage of so narrowing your mindset to specifics may, in turn, help with your development in manual trading also. It is a very frustrating avenue; for example, I've been working on a strategy for nearly two weeks now, should be done by next week. If it doesn't work, that's three whole weeks wasted which is difficult mentally. Especially when it's a regular occurrence Suits my availability and mindset much better than manually trading though, I enjoy messing about with spreadsheets when I get home from work and once you have at least one working, it's an amazing feeling!

Are you using Automation within Bet Angel or Excel?

[goat68]

I've enjoyed glancing at this thread from time to time, great to see you've joined the automated trading side like me

With automation, you need to find one very specific niche you'd like to take advantage of so narrowing your mindset to specifics may, in turn, help with your development in manual trading also. It is a very frustrating avenue; for example, I've been working on a strategy for nearly two weeks now, should be done by next week. If it doesn't work, that's three whole weeks wasted which is difficult mentally. Especially when it's a regular occurrence Suits my availability and mindset much better than manually trading though, I enjoy messing about with spreadsheets when I get home from work and once you have at least one working, it's an amazing feeling!

Are you using Automation within Bet Angel or Excel?

Hi Callum,
So I am using BA Guardian, very early days, but I am a decent programmer, so pick it up quickly. I've got one pattern I recognize from manual trading, which I have high hopes is +ve ev. So going to work on that...
Interesting you mention availability, as my change of work schedule means Automation is going to suite me, if I can crack it !!
Manual trading is going to be difficult for me next year, so we will see how this goes...

[decomez6]

I think I'm tackling Automation from the difficult side first, I was working on scalping and I think the noise gets me every time...
I'm going to look at a longer timeframe and swing, I do have one setup I think from manual trading that might be +even, but it will be tricky to automate, but I'll try

the noise is your friend until it goes against you and just like a wild horse demands respect and assurance ,its important you spend lots of time whispering to volatility.
my personal approach is to come up with a random bot that scans the market ( or so i think) as to break even in an effecient market. This should in theory allow you to observe the market characteristics without loosing a penny and as a result adjust the bot accordingly .
may be you or any member of the forum can add some rules to the bot below making it as random as possible.

how it works:( or how i think its working)
randomly throws back and lay orders taking a tick profit and trailing a stop with a -3 tick loss. It will cancel all bets remaining and start again whenever there is one unmathched bet, allowing it to start the cycle again.

NB: the bot only for experimenting so run it in practice mode and work your way out. i am not proficient in coding and may be this is where your IT background becomes handy.

[decomez6]

I think I'm tackling Automation from the difficult side first, I was working on scalping and I think the noise gets me every time...
I'm going to look at a longer timeframe and swing, I do have one setup I think from manual trading that might be +even, but it will be tricky to automate, but I'll try

the noise is your friend until it goes against you and just like a wild horse demands respect and assurance ,its important you spend lots of time whispering to volatility.
my personal approach is to come up with a random bot that scans the market ( or so i think) as to break even in an effecient market. This should in theory allow you to observe the market characteristics without loosing a penny and as a result adjust the bot accordingly .
may be you or any member of the forum can add some rules to the bot below making it as random as possible.

how it works:( or how i think its working)
randomly throws back and lay orders taking a tick profit and trailing a stop with a -3 tick loss. It will cancel all bets remaining and start again whenever there is one unmathched bet, allowing it to start the cycle again.

NB: the bot only for experimenting so run it in practice mode and work your way out. i am not proficient in coding and may be this is where your IT background becomes handy.

one more thing, the bot is a servant and you can convert it into a guardian file by changing the options in the general rule file tab.

[LinusP]

Hi Linus, thank you very much for writing this up, it does help.
So I understand what you're saying now, when you say crossing over the spread, you're saying the stop distance goes from the back bet price 'over' the one tick spread. I would agree having a one tick stop on an entry like this would be stupid.
However, in my example I am using a 3 tick stop and entering at the best reverse price if matched. So in your example I am a queued back bet at 2.10, and a stop at 2.16. My premise being I've identified a slight directional bias at this time such that my 1tick profit (2.08) occurs over 3times more often than the 3tick loss.

I do understand what you're saying James as well, in that I don't really know this is a +ev model, so why have a stop,ie.let it run till post time, but then that might not be +ev either, or preferably develop a closing trade model that makes it +ev, equally working that out is hard but better.

Thanks again, I got there in the end (I think!)

Doesn't matter how many ticks the principle is the same, stop losses are -ev.

Just one other thing though, with regards value trading, I questioned Peter over whether his pre race horses was in any way value trading and he said no. As with horses there is no correct modelled price, it can keep coming in even if the horse will never win... A fair coin has physical characteristics in the real world which means evens price is the expected model.

It is mathematically impossible to make money without getting value.

[jamesg46]

https://twitter.com/betangel/status/134 ... 40228?s=19

If you understand what is being said here then you'll do well. I don't seek value, I seek the value seekers because generally they're all looking for the same things. Get ahead of value and naturally you'll be in the right place.

[wearthefoxhat]

Thanks for the great ideas guys.
I think one limiting aspect I suffer is not having clearly defined 'setups', as I find every market is subtly different, and hardly ever fits a standard setup, so I have to interpret it a bit to make something fit.
Also the markets at the moment seem to be impossible to run winners due to the volatility, so I typically aim for 1:1 risk: reward.
So I'll try and improve these

Hi goat,

The advice given in this thread alone is enough to make you a successful trading plan.

This might be worth a revisit.

I've been guilty in the past of chopping and changing, tweaking, backfitting...Etc... So, part of my approach was to set up and review a trading plan. Maybe for those that feel pulled around with lots of ideas and are beginning to get muddled, this might help and form a clean start for the new year, or review the best parts of your trading to-date.

Of course, you/we will all have our own take on what to include, but as an exercise, it could help re-focus....

tradingplan.png

[decomez6]

Thanks for the great ideas guys.
I think one limiting aspect I suffer is not having clearly defined 'setups', as I find every market is subtly different, and hardly ever fits a standard setup, so I have to interpret it a bit to make something fit.
Also the markets at the moment seem to be impossible to run winners due to the volatility, so I typically aim for 1:1 risk: reward.
So I'll try and improve these

Hi goat,

The advice given in this thread alone is enough to make you a successful trading plan.

This might be worth a revisit.

I've been guilty in the past of chopping and changing, tweaking, backfitting...Etc... So, part of my approach was to set up and review a trading plan. Maybe for those that feel pulled around with lots of ideas and are beginning to get muddled, this might help and form a clean start for the new year, or review the best parts of your trading to-date.

Of course, you/we will all have our own take on what to include, but as an exercise, it could help re-focus....


tradingplan.png

thanks weatherfox, every little helps.
i took note of the Little Acorn strategy you suggested within the thread,i find it promising(work in progress) especially when combined with the lay square root staking plan just as you explained . its always encouraging to have senior members chipping in to help whenever they can, so thanks again.

[Trader724]

Hi Linus, thank you very much for writing this up, it does help.
So I understand what you're saying now, when you say crossing over the spread, you're saying the stop distance goes from the back bet price 'over' the one tick spread. I would agree having a one tick stop on an entry like this would be stupid.
However, in my example I am using a 3 tick stop and entering at the best reverse price if matched. So in your example I am a queued back bet at 2.10, and a stop at 2.16. My premise being I've identified a slight directional bias at this time such that my 1tick profit (2.08) occurs over 3times more often than the 3tick loss.

I do understand what you're saying James as well, in that I don't really know this is a +ev model, so why have a stop,ie.let it run till post time, but then that might not be +ev either, or preferably develop a closing trade model that makes it +ev, equally working that out is hard but better.

Thanks again, I got there in the end (I think!)

Doesn't matter how many ticks the principle is the same, stop losses are -ev.

Just one other thing though, with regards value trading, I questioned Peter over whether his pre race horses was in any way value trading and he said no. As with horses there is no correct modelled price, it can keep coming in even if the horse will never win... A fair coin has physical characteristics in the real world which means evens price is the expected model.

It is mathematically impossible to make money without getting value.

[wearthefoxhat]

Hi goat,

The advice given in this thread alone is enough to make you a successful trading plan.

This might be worth a revisit.

I've been guilty in the past of chopping and changing, tweaking, backfitting...Etc... So, part of my approach was to set up and review a trading plan. Maybe for those that feel pulled around with lots of ideas and are beginning to get muddled, this might help and form a clean start for the new year, or review the best parts of your trading to-date.

Of course, you/we will all have our own take on what to include, but as an exercise, it could help re-focus....


tradingplan.png

thanks weatherfox, every little helps.
i took note of the Little Acorn strategy you suggested within the thread,i find it promising(work in progress) especially when combined with the lay square root staking plan just as you explained . its always encouraging to have senior members chipping in to help whenever they can, so thanks again.

Your welcome.

Yep, that one has stood the test of time. The original rules using the fibonacci staking plan (increase to chase losses) aren't recommended for sure. It certainly adds a second string to your/our bow if used with the Lay Square root plan. (increase from winnings)

FYI, here's a .baf that will identify the selections. Not sure where it came from, but there's no reason we can't share. Might be worth tweaking the entry point to suit your findings and adjust stakes as and when required.

Happy Christmas et al..

LAcorns.baf

[decomez6]

This might be worth a revisit.

I've been guilty in the past of chopping and changing, tweaking, backfitting...Etc... So, part of my approach was to set up and review a trading plan. Maybe for those that feel pulled around with lots of ideas and are beginning to get muddled, this might help and form a clean start for the new year, or review the best parts of your trading to-date.

Of course, you/we will all have our own take on what to include, but as an exercise, it could help re-focus....


tradingplan.png

thanks weatherfox, every little helps.
i took note of the Little Acorn strategy you suggested within the thread,i find it promising(work in progress) especially when combined with the lay square root staking plan just as you explained . its always encouraging to have senior members chipping in to help whenever they can, so thanks again.

Your welcome.

Yep, that one has stood the test of time. The original rules using the fibonacci staking plan (increase to chase losses) aren't recommended for sure. It certainly adds a second string to your/our bow if used with the Lay Square root plan. (increase from winnings)

FYI, here's a .baf that will identify the selections. Not sure where it came from, but there's no reason we can't share. Might be worth tweaking the entry point to suit your findings and adjust stakes as and when required.

Happy Christmas et al..


LAcorns.baf

U ‘s a legend ! Thanks and merry Christmas

[goat68]

How can I possibly fail?!

GoatsMarvel.jpg