Trading What I see !?

[Kai]

@Lurking Newbies

A little footnote for any lurking newbies out there (with perhaps some ambitious New Year's resolutions?), I think this thread is perhaps the perfect representation of your typical trading journey, sadly with the final destination not yet in sight.

That journey usually starts with you watching a few random trading videos on Youtube, but where and when that journey ends is entirely up to you. This thread for example has been running from July so it's obviously long-winded and filled with frustration, as you'd expect, as the thoughts scatter across different trading approaches but without any clear focus and strong determination, which are probably the two main prerequisites!

There's also a lot of random noise in the thread, just like in the markets themselves, but ignoring it is easier said than done. The name of the thread is a bit ironic as well if you think about it, because as a newbie you can't really see much of what's actually going on, so you are expected to lose by default, until you are able to see more and read and anticipate the markets better.

So just saying it's not a bad idea to extract whatever notes and lessons you can from the thread overall, every little bit helps to start building that mindset and start figuring out the markets.

(Not a criticism of you Goaty by any means, wish you well in 2021!)

[goat68]

@Lurking Newbies

A little footnote for any lurking newbies out there (with perhaps some ambitious New Year's resolutions?), I think this thread is perhaps the perfect representation of your typical trading journey, sadly with the final destination not yet in sight.

That journey usually starts with you watching a few random trading videos on Youtube, but where and when that journey ends is entirely up to you. This thread for example has been running from July so it's obviously long-winded and filled with frustration, as you'd expect, as the thoughts scatter across different trading approaches but without any clear focus and strong determination, which are probably the two main prerequisites!

There's also a lot of random noise in the thread, just like in the markets themselves, but ignoring it is easier said than done. The name of the thread is a bit ironic as well if you think about it, because as a newbie you can't really see much of what's actually going on, so you are expected to lose by default, until you are able to see more and read and anticipate the markets better.

So just saying it's not a bad idea to extract whatever notes and lessons you can from the thread overall, every little bit helps to start building that mindset and start figuring out the markets.

(Not a criticism of you Goaty by any means, wish you well in 2021!)

nicely said Kai

[goat68]

So today's bot heading for a score-draw again!
I'm starting to think there's not a lot of "historic" information in a market that indicates where it is going to go... Although, then how can anyone make money (face of quandary!). Surely Peter and co don't enter markets randomly, they see something there, which by definition must be historic information, which leads them to a trade...
I feel as though i'm trying to make a bot that's looking at things too detailed, eg.WOM >65% but less then 70% (made up example!), but you get my point... Manual traders can't see that detail as it is fleeting information.
Hmm, some food for thought...

[goat68]

I think i'm going to "bin" my current Hcap market strategy, and re-think how to handle Hcaps. It's currently responsible for most of the bot's downside

[Tetras]

If it makes you feel any better you did better than me today, and I can't even blame those on the robot

If your bot is profitable on everything bar handicaps, that sounds like a winner?!!

BF_2020-01-02.png

[goat68]

Just turned off Hcaps bot, it's gone seriously down hill...today:
- Non-Hcap : +£1.28 : 3 wins : 3 losses
- Hcap: -£4.68 !! : 3 wins : 9 losses

[Tetras]

Just turned off Hcaps bot, it's gone seriously down hill...today:
- Non-Hcap : +£1.28 : 3 wins : 3 losses
- Hcap: -£4.68 !! : 3 wins : 9 losses

Is that a consistent pattern from every day, that your bot does better in non-hcap? If so, it sounds like maybe you build a bot more suited to swings, big differences in odds, or small fields?

[goat68]

Just turned off Hcaps bot, it's gone seriously down hill...today:
- Non-Hcap : +£1.28 : 3 wins : 3 losses
- Hcap: -£4.68 !! : 3 wins : 9 losses

Is that a consistent pattern from every day, that your bot does better in non-hcap? If so, it sounds like maybe you build a bot more suited to swings, big differences in odds, or small fields?

Yes, it's being consistent. I'm running one set of rules for hcap and another for non-hcap, so 2 bots.
I'm going to concentrate on just non-hcap for the moment as I seem to be doing better there...

[goat68]

Moves in hcaps can be only small, and the ratio of noise to real moves is quite large, so there's a good chance you're trading noise! Which is random..

[Tetras]

Moves in hcaps can be only small, and the ratio of noise to real moves is quite large, so there's a good chance you're trading noise! Which is random..

For sure, I can imagine a bot going for small moves with tight stops in handicaps would get hammered, unless the entries were pretty tight. I can't figure out a reliable way to trade a lot of handicaps manually, so heck knows how a bot would find an in. That said, their profiles are very different, some races are very nice to trade, some are stinkers.

[Trader724]

Just turned off Hcaps bot, it's gone seriously down hill...today:
- Non-Hcap : +£1.28 : 3 wins : 3 losses
- Hcap: -£4.68 !! : 3 wins : 9 losses

Is that a consistent pattern from every day, that your bot does better in non-hcap? If so, it sounds like maybe you build a bot more suited to swings, big differences in odds, or small fields?

Yes, it's being consistent.

How many trades?

[goat68]

Is that a consistent pattern from every day, that your bot does better in non-hcap? If so, it sounds like maybe you build a bot more suited to swings, big differences in odds, or small fields?

Yes, it's being consistent.

How many trades?

171

[goat68]

Moves in hcaps can be only small, and the ratio of noise to real moves is quite large, so there's a good chance you're trading noise! Which is random..

For sure, I can imagine a bot going for small moves with tight stops in handicaps would get hammered, unless the entries were pretty tight. I can't figure out a reliable way to trade a lot of handicaps manually, so heck knows how a bot would find an in. That said, their profiles are very different, some races are very nice to trade, some are stinkers.

Same here, I've not much success at manually trading hcaps, so I didn't have much confidence in this bot. Some will say too few trades, but it's not just that, I have no confidence in it, and it is demonstrating...
I'm going to concentrate on the better bot for the moment.

[alexmr2]

I'm now on month 26 of my trading journey. Last month started well and I had my best week ever, but after couple of weeks of success I tried to scale up too fast which turned into a disaster where all logic went out the window. There are some things in trading that just need to be avoided altogether (mainly overstaking for me), and I hope I've finally learned my lesson from the pain.

I've been slowly building some profits up and only been caught out badly once in the last couple of weeks which took a chunk of my profits back. It's usually when everything points to a horse being weak and then 1-2 minutes to post it starts steaming in without a retracement. Those ones really catch me out now and then, I believe it just takes one sloppy entry and then a big spike to throw me off, or money piling in so fast that I miss dumping the position where I should have.

This will be my third year of trading so hopefully I'm going to improve and finish 2021 in profit

[TraderFred]

I'm now on month 26 of my trading journey. Last month started well and I had my best week ever, but after couple of weeks of success I tried to scale up too fast which turned into a disaster where all logic went out the window. There are some things in trading that just need to be avoided altogether (mainly overstaking for me), and I hope I've finally learned my lesson from the pain.

I've been slowly building some profits up and only been caught out badly once in the last couple of weeks which took a chunk of my profits back. It's usually when everything points to a horse being weak and then 1-2 minutes to post it starts steaming in without a retracement. Those ones really catch me out now and then, I believe it just takes one sloppy entry and then a big spike to throw me off, or money piling in so fast that I miss dumping the position where I should have.

This will be my third year of trading so hopefully I'm going to improve and finish 2021 in profit

Good luck, alexmr2.

If you are profitable using smaller stakes I wouldn’t be in any huge rush to start scaling up. As you have found out , over staking can kill almost any profitable strategy.

Let your bank and stakes grow slowly and organically. It will do wonders for both your confidence and your learning to get several profitable back to back months under your belt. It is far easier to motivate yourself to do all the work and research needed to improve when you have a positive base to start from.

Whilst you can learn a lot from your mistakes and losses, in truth, the last thing anyone wants to do after blowing half their bank is to start going back through their trades and watching markets back etc. Winning can help to motivate you to improve further.

I’m sure if you put as much effort into researching your trading as you do into researching your anti mask and anti lockdown theories, you will do just fine !