Greyhound Mystique

[spreadbetting]

Yep I wasn't convinced by archery's 99% claim in his opening post either. But like a lot of ideas on the forum if someone's put in the early leg work it shouldn't be too hard to tip it into profit. The dogs just aren't liquid enough to ever make you massive profits but there's so many races you can get a reasonable return automated if you're not greedy.

[BertieBert]

the fact its been shared on a forum with lots of automated traders, in a relatively low liquidity and capacity market, on a thread with hundreds of posts would strongly suggest that the edge is long gone now.

[MemphisFlash]

or has it?

[spreadbetting]

You only need to look at the numerous challenge threads to see the majority of the forum give up after a few days if they don't see profits coming thick and fast. And long may that last

[MemphisFlash]

from initial strategy other branches form

Capture.JPG

[The Silk Run]

I think MEMF carry's his creativity in his heart, it shows. Just remember intellectual property !!! Look out for Vlad

Happy New Year
Minnie LAI

[MemphisFlash]

I think MEMF carry's his creativity in his heart, it shows. Just remember intellectual property !!! Look out for Vlad

Happy New Year
Minnie LAI

happy new year to you too.

[Archery1969]

One mistake people make when trading the dogs is to take the current back price when backing and the current lay price when laying. Because of the liquidity in the majority of races that is something you should never do.

The original method works fine with some modifictions.

1. Never take the prices on offer. There shite up until the last minute of trading.
2. If you have an A3 race but one or more dogs last race was an A2 or A4 then adjust their times +/- 0.10s.
3. If you have a 460m race but one or more dogs last race was shorter or longer then scrap the race. As the times will be fucked up when doing comparisons. The other dogs will have times around 30s but one or more might be 15s. Usually because its last race was a sprint.

Once you have your selection then look at the current prices on offer, if their poor value (they will be) then offer your own.

Example: Trap 2 - Current Back Price = 3.0 and Current Lay Price is 4.0. If you were too back @ 3.0 then you would be totally stupid. In that case then you should be looking to back at 3.95. Then act accordingly. If the selection gets backed and we got accepted at 3.95 then its highly likely it will shorten enough to get out with a profit. But if you had taken the best back price on offer then you would have put yourself at a massive disadvantage and relying on the selection being pushed below 3.0.

Some people worked the above out on their own but obviously some did not.

[BertieBert]

over the last year the returns on the strategy have disappeared. I was measuring it before this thread, and very clearly since after the summer the return has gone. that is very unsurprising given we've a thread posting code. a typical market is only trading 20k, you must have had at least 30 competent people if not more look at the strategy and likely bet it, upping their stakes as it worked, it would be very strange if there was still edge there given that it is a market with generally declining retail interest and volume. it isn't horse racing or football, the capacity is very limited.

[Archery1969]

over the last year the returns on the strategy have disappeared. I was measuring it before this thread, and very clearly since after the summer the return has gone. that is very unsurprising given we've a thread posting code. a typical market is only trading 20k, you must have had at least 30 competent people if not more look at the strategy and likely bet it, upping their stakes as it worked, it would be very strange if there was still edge there given that it is a market with generally declining retail interest and volume. it isn't horse racing or football, the capacity is very limited.

I suspect the reason why people say there is no comparison to the method and price shortening is because they based it on the current back price on offer. Something I always said you should never do.

[Archery1969]

This is a made up example but will give you an idea of the modified selection method.

Every dog's last race was run at the same distance but we have 2 who are now stepping up in grade. Therefore we increase there last run times by 0.10s.

If one of the dogs had run over a shorter or longer distance then we would scrap that race altogether.

Trap 1 would be the selection we are interested in. So, from 5 mins out start monitoring its lay price and matched volume, when it increases then back at the current lay price - 1 tick. NEVER BACK AT THE CURRENT BACK PRICE ON OFFER.

[The Silk Run]

Out of curiosity Archery would you say the system is now over bet, or is it still viable.

[BertieBert]

no that isn't the reason. you'll see the returns of this indicator have cratered this year.

that isn't surprising though, the strategy is now effectively public in a relatively limited capacity market.

[Archery1969]

Out of curiosity Archery would you say the system is now over bet, or is it still viable.

Its still viable from my point of view. But one thing which has changed is the market makers have adjusted their pricing earlier on. So i adjusted my monitoring times.

- Morning and afternoon racing i start monitoring from 5 mins out. But 10 mins if A1, A2 or A3 grade race.
- Evening racing i start monitoring from 10 mins out.

In all cases i wait for market volume matched > £1,000 and selection volume matched > £100. Also, i only trade A1 to A11 grade races. Nothing else. Not even 'OR' races.

And once again i never look at the current back price on offer, always the current lay price on offer and act accordingly.

[The Silk Run]

That's GOOD. Long may it continue ...