90 Day Football Trading Challenge

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
Alexander_99
Posts: 95
Joined: Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:48 am

DAY 7: 9 % loss from yesterday. Total bank: 29% up from DAY 1.

Watched roughly 40 matches today and traded around 30 of them, including 5 matches simultaneously this evening (French ligue 1 AC Milan vs Torino)

Good wins on overs market completely negated by massive losses on match odds over the last 2 days. Over the last 2 days, I have lost almost 33% of my bank on match odds. Absolutely unacceptable performance. For a long time, I've been of the opinion that probably, I should abandon trading match odds (save for certain special situations), and exclusively trade under / overs markets.

Just looked at the betfair spreadsheet of profits / losses over last 7 days. As a % of my STARTING BANK:

I incurred a total 34% loss on match odds
I obtained a total 64% profit on over / under markets

flipping Hell. If only I stuck to unders / overs, my bank would have been roughly 64% up in one week.

What I think I'll do from now is bet with roughly 5-6% of my bank per each under / over trade and keep to absolute max 2-3% on match odds.
dm1900
Posts: 50
Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:02 pm

Alexander_99 wrote:
Sat Jan 09, 2021 10:39 pm

flipping Hell. If only I stuck to unders / overs, my bank would have been roughly 64% up in one week.
This is an interesting comment. Are you sure this is not an example of survivorship bias?
Alexander_99
Posts: 95
Joined: Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:48 am

Day 8: another shit day, but up 3% from yesterday.
Alexander_99
Posts: 95
Joined: Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:48 am

dm1900 wrote:
Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:18 am
Alexander_99 wrote:
Sat Jan 09, 2021 10:39 pm

flipping Hell. If only I stuck to unders / overs, my bank would have been roughly 64% up in one week.
This is an interesting comment. Are you sure this is not an example of survivorship bias?
Well, I can't be sure. But for a while I've been of the opinion that trading on unders / overs markets can be a smarter choice in many situations than match odds. Why do you think it's "interesting", though? Purely because of 64% figure?
Alexander_99
Posts: 95
Joined: Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:48 am

DAY 9: a decent day. 19% bank growth from yesterday. Total bank growth from day 1: 58%.
Anbell
Posts: 943
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

Alexander_99 wrote:
Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:38 pm
DAY 9: a decent day. 19% bank growth from yesterday. Total bank growth from day 1: 58%.
Seems like it was a good idea to post publicly so you have to answer to others if you do something contrary to your plan. Good job.
DarkPrince87
Posts: 6
Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2020 4:01 am

DarkPrince87 wrote:
Wed Jan 06, 2021 8:52 pm
Day 1 - 7/7 Trades - $110 Total Staked - $14.09 Profit
Day 2 - 4/6 Trades - $160 Total Staked - $6.39 Profit
Day 3 - 8/8 Trades - $85 Total Staked - $9.89 Profit
Day 4 - 9/11 Trades - $260 Total Stakes - $20.21 Profit
Day 5 - 5/5 Trades - $110 Total Stakes - $12.02 Profit
Day 6/7/8/9/10 - 80/89 Trades - $Too lazy to add it up - $29.52 Profit

Main focus was testing if the bot would work as expected (which it doesnt, need lots more work on it)...so I ended up doing ALOT of trades overnight while I slept with $1 stakes hoping the bot would work (I can get the entry criterion working and the bet placed with the right conditions, just not the trade out)...majority of the time the trade (well really at this stage its more like a bet) would be successful...in saying that there are a handful of games where I should have traded out for a small loss if the bot had worked as intended.

Without getting the strategy automated I am really restricted to a handful or so games a day (most of which poor liquidity), would really love to be able to tap into those European leagues.
Alexander_99
Posts: 95
Joined: Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:48 am

Days 10 and 11: total 10% loss over the last two days. A setback.
Alexander_99
Posts: 95
Joined: Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:48 am

Day 12: 11% increase of the bank from day 11.
Demolitica
Posts: 5
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:46 pm

I'll dive in for a laugh, This is my new bot which has been running for the last 4 days. Started with a £22 balance using £2 fixed stakes.

Day 1 = £11.58 Profit
Day 2 = £12.1 Profit
Day 3 = -£7.73 Loss
Day 4 = -9.07 Loss

Total = £12.30 Profit over 105 trades. +56% of initial bank

Modified today so expecting to see around +£9 tomorrow depending on how many games it gets on. Hope it manages to reach the magic £80 before it goes bust so I can set a 2.5% stake as standard. Wish me luck.
Last edited by Demolitica on Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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