Hi,
Can anyone explain what the difference between good and poor markets are in terms of trading.
Unfortunately, I have only really started on my trading journey late last year when i came over for Peters Trading course and therefore since really taking in the information I have only been able to see the markets performing during the winter months.
I am up on my betfair account since I started which is a positive although not enough to claim a living off for 6-7 months work and wondering if the summer season with better races things become more stable.
I found Chelthenham quite easy to make some money but not a great deal as my stakes were not much and it felt like they took so long to get matched so only a couple of trades per race for small movements. However, I felt comfortable in these races and it felt that the markets were quite stable without large quick movements.
On the weaker markets, i have still turned a small profit but i feel like I keep being hit by a big loss (relative to stakes) that takes most of the day trying to recoup and playing even safer than usual for the rest of the day. It feels as though these weaker markets are controlled by an individual with a large wallet who can just push the market round at will and therefore push out or bring down prices quickly through several ticks at once and therefore the swing trades that I sometimes fall victim to Im not able to scratch my trade as quick as I would like to.
Therefore I would like to know, in weaker markets are the prices more vulnerable to quick movements without any signals? If so, is this reason why some traders like to avoid the weak races as its not worth the risk?
Secondly, do good summer grade 1 meetings with large fields tend to follow similar patterns as Chelthnam and not feel like an individual can just push the odds around quickly due to the amount of money lined up?
I could be wrong about my thinking but it feels like there is so much fake money around in these weak markets.
Good Markets Vs Poor Markets
Well the good thing about the summer is really that there are more races. Generally there is a bit more bet overall on flat races, but not neccessarily per race. The manipulation continues during the summer unfortunately, and the markets aren't neccesarily more stable - certainly at the start of the flat season they can be very volatile as many horses haven't raced before, or at least for 6 months, so its hard to guage a 'true' price. Of course the big races, including the festivals will be more stable and liquid than the normal races, but in terms of the kind of trading that you seem to like (i.e. Cheltenham type markets) - well even most Ascot markets have, in the past, been a bit less stable than Cheltenham.
Having said all that, the first 3 months of the year do tend to be the worst in terms of real betting money in the markets, so you may notice an improvement on what you're finding now. Personally of the 'normal' races I find them to be most stable and liquid between September and the start of November, possibly because the evening races have mostly stopped so people bet a bit more during the afternoon races, though others may have different experiences and may even prefer the wilder markets. If you can learn to adapt then money can be made in any type of market
Having said all that, the first 3 months of the year do tend to be the worst in terms of real betting money in the markets, so you may notice an improvement on what you're finding now. Personally of the 'normal' races I find them to be most stable and liquid between September and the start of November, possibly because the evening races have mostly stopped so people bet a bit more during the afternoon races, though others may have different experiences and may even prefer the wilder markets. If you can learn to adapt then money can be made in any type of market