Today's Horse Racing

[The Silk Run]

Hello G. Depending on your strategy it may not be consistent each, and every day. You need to diary, journal what days are effected. Recreational gamblers used to impact my strategy, certain days, and certain times in the day !!! Aside, you present as being equipped with the correct mindset, and it won't be long before a turn of foot ...

[wearthefoxhat]

Crikey, just fell off me chair!


Kemp 7.50R.png

What are those ratings based on?

I interpret the form guide - Horse Race predictor, on the Punters.com.au website.

https://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/

It gives the option to create a %prob on each area of the races. Something like.


Lingfield 4.05

Ling4.05.png

I then adjust the settings I prefer and put into a spreadsheet.

settings.png

[Derek27]

Crikey, just fell off me chair!


Kemp 7.50R.png

What are those ratings based on?

I interpret the form guide - Horse Race predictor, on the Punters.com.au website.

https://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/

It gives the option to create a %prob on each area of the races. Something like.


Lingfield 4.05

Ling4.05.png

I then adjust the settings I prefer and put into a spreadsheet.


settings.png

Do you make a profit? I'd be amazed if those probabilities are remotely accurate. What do you do when a horse is taken out of the field, simply upgrade the probabilities to make 100%?

[wearthefoxhat]

What are those ratings based on?

I interpret the form guide - Horse Race predictor, on the Punters.com.au website.

https://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/

It gives the option to create a %prob on each area of the races. Something like.


Lingfield 4.05

Ling4.05.png

I then adjust the settings I prefer and put into a spreadsheet.


settings.png

Do you make a profit? I'd be amazed if those probabilities are remotely accurate. What do you do when a horse is taken out of the field, simply upgrade the probabilities to make 100%?

Finding the right combination within the settings sweetspot, is the key overall. It re-calculates the %Prob if non-runner.

AWR - Synthetic and other setting are the simplest ones. Then it's a question of comparing value v live odds in the spreadsheet.

Yep, profitable so far. Takes a little time initially.

[wearthefoxhat]

In the Ling 4.05 here were the final ratings.

Ling4.05R.png

Top rated finished last although value...

Could dutch Top 4 (all value) or Multi-Lay any in the bottom half of the ratings.

[Derek27]

I interpret the form guide - Horse Race predictor, on the Punters.com.au website.

https://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/

It gives the option to create a %prob on each area of the races. Something like.


Lingfield 4.05

Ling4.05.png

I then adjust the settings I prefer and put into a spreadsheet.


settings.png

Do you make a profit? I'd be amazed if those probabilities are remotely accurate. What do you do when a horse is taken out of the field, simply upgrade the probabilities to make 100%?

Finding the right combination within the settings sweetspot, is the key overall. It re-calculates the %Prob if non-runner.

AWR - Synthetic and other setting are the simplest ones. Then it's a question of comparing value v live odds in the spreadsheet.

Yep, profitable so far. Takes a little time initially.

Does it simply bump up the probabilities to 100%, i.e. a 50% non-runner and everything doubles or does it reevaluate a new probability for each runner with the new field?

[wearthefoxhat]

Do you make a profit? I'd be amazed if those probabilities are remotely accurate. What do you do when a horse is taken out of the field, simply upgrade the probabilities to make 100%?

Finding the right combination within the settings sweetspot, is the key overall. It re-calculates the %Prob if non-runner.

AWR - Synthetic and other setting are the simplest ones. Then it's a question of comparing value v live odds in the spreadsheet.

Yep, profitable so far. Takes a little time initially.

Does it simply bump up the probabilities to 100%, i.e. a 50% non-runner and everything doubles or does it reevaluate a new probability for each runner with the new field?

If a NR was originally 100% on one of the settings, it re-calcs the whole field and produces a new 100% qualifier for that setting, re-adjusting the remaining field.

[danum]

Due to the abandonment of Cheltenham and to ensure a more even spread of races throughout the afternoon, Races 4 to 8 @LingfieldPark will be delayed by 5 minutes.

Revised race times:
R1 – 12:00
R2 – 12:35
R3 – 13:10
R4 – 13:50
R5 – 14:25
R6 – 15:00
R7 – 15:35
R8 – 16:10

Due to the abandonment of Cheltenham and to ensure a more even spread of races throughout the afternoon, the following races times @DoncasterRaces, have been revised as follows:

R1 – 1:00
R2 – 1:40
R3 – 2:10
R4 – 2:45
R5 – 3:20
R6 – 3:55

[jamesg46]

Thank you!

[Derek27]

Finding the right combination within the settings sweetspot, is the key overall. It re-calculates the %Prob if non-runner.

AWR - Synthetic and other setting are the simplest ones. Then it's a question of comparing value v live odds in the spreadsheet.

Yep, profitable so far. Takes a little time initially.

Does it simply bump up the probabilities to 100%, i.e. a 50% non-runner and everything doubles or does it reevaluate a new probability for each runner with the new field?

If a NR was originally 100% on one of the settings, it re-calcs the whole field and produces a new 100% qualifier for that setting, re-adjusting the remaining field.

I've just had a look at the site. I don't mean to piss on your parade but I hope you're not taking it too seriously, it's a bit like a toy watch.

You'll never get a remotely accurate tissue from a few very basic variables. From my years of betting, I found the most crucial aspect of reading any race was the pace of the race. A lack of pace in a race means all the horses that need a strong pace are disadvantaged regardless of the other variables while the outclassed sprinter would become a live contender with the prospect of a slow pace and sprint finish. That probably explains why you find wide discrepancies in the prices. People who really study racing will always be a step ahead when it comes to pricing up a race.

[wearthefoxhat]

Does it simply bump up the probabilities to 100%, i.e. a 50% non-runner and everything doubles or does it reevaluate a new probability for each runner with the new field?

If a NR was originally 100% on one of the settings, it re-calcs the whole field and produces a new 100% qualifier for that setting, re-adjusting the remaining field.

I've just had a look at the site. I don't mean to piss on your parade but I hope you're not taking it too seriously, it's a bit like a toy watch.

You'll never get a remotely accurate tissue from a few very basic variables. From my years of betting, I found the most crucial aspect of reading any race was the pace of the race. A lack of pace in a race means all the horses that need a strong pace are disadvantaged regardless of the other variables while the outclassed sprinter would become a live contender with the prospect of a slow pace and sprint finish. That probably explains why you find wide discrepancies in the prices. People who really study racing will always be a step ahead when it comes to pricing up a race.

Yep that's cool.

Ratings and any similar data the website gives out, should always be regarded as a guide. As you say, there are a lot of variables to consider and pace is a biggy. Racing TV offer fairly good pace cards, so should, somehow, be factored in.

I just like experimenting with data and testing different aspects, to see if there are ways of speeding up the process.

I can see some potential in the site, although it is important to interpret it properly.

[Dallas]

Some late backing on Big Narstie

Capture.JPG

[arbitrage16]

Due to the abandonment of Cheltenham and to ensure a more even spread of races throughout the afternoon, Races 4 to 8 @LingfieldPark will be delayed by 5 minutes.

Revised race times:
R1 – 12:00
R2 – 12:35
R3 – 13:10
R4 – 13:50
R5 – 14:25
R6 – 15:00
R7 – 15:35
R8 – 16:10

Due to the abandonment of Cheltenham and to ensure a more even spread of races throughout the afternoon, the following races times @DoncasterRaces, have been revised as follows:

R1 – 1:00
R2 – 1:40
R3 – 2:10
R4 – 2:45
R5 – 3:20
R6 – 3:55

Thanks - where is this from?

[danum]

Due to the abandonment of Cheltenham and to ensure a more even spread of races throughout the afternoon, Races 4 to 8 @LingfieldPark will be delayed by 5 minutes.

Revised race times:
R1 – 12:00
R2 – 12:35
R3 – 13:10
R4 – 13:50
R5 – 14:25
R6 – 15:00
R7 – 15:35
R8 – 16:10

Due to the abandonment of Cheltenham and to ensure a more even spread of races throughout the afternoon, the following races times @DoncasterRaces, have been revised as follows:

R1 – 1:00
R2 – 1:40
R3 – 2:10
R4 – 2:45
R5 – 3:20
R6 – 3:55

Thanks - where is this from?

On twitter.

I follow @BHAStewards and @ihrb_ie and you'll get the heads up on schedule changes, can also be handy for flagging stewards enquiries if you switch coverage after the race has begun.

[Crazyskier]

Some late backing on Big Narstie

Capture.JPG

Hayley Turner working her magic... again!

CS