At What Point Should I Just Give up

The sport of kings.
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Tetras
Posts: 144
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:23 pm

BigT2019 wrote:
Tue Feb 02, 2021 7:45 pm
I've been actively trading horse racing markets for about 5-6 months now but I've got myself into a vicious cycle (and I'm sure a few can relate to when they first started) where my loss is higher than what I consider to be an acceptable level I.e. Intended cap is say £5-£8 loss but it reaches £12+ for whatever reason (discipline mainly) and yes I take it inplay and it all goes to s*** from there. Now I've noticed a few times I've been lucky with low price favs as they dont always win and so a few times I've won my money back (most often the losses multiply) but of course this is proof that I cannot accept all of my losses and end up chasing some of them. Taking these horrid mistakes out of the equation and my records show my strike rate is around 75-85% and without those big losses from going in play, my account would be in profit. I know that doesn't mean "oh if I stop going inplay then I'll live happily ever after" but clearly this has a serious negative impact on my overall confidence and profitability.
My question is how do you deal with big losses pre-off and avoid the temptation of taking trades inplay in hope to reduce the loss? Brutal honesty/constructive criticism is most welcomed.
What helped me was just accepting that it has happened. It was always something unusual, like getting caught in a gamble. So, my philosophy now is that the mistake was made, it's a losing market, that's it, the money has gone. It helped to be recording, because then I could tell myself I'd look back over it. Avoiding the kind of trades that led to unexpected events helps too, like being overexposed on the dodgy races at the end of a card.
rik
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am

if you enjoy it and dont mind staking low, no reason to give up
BigT2019
Posts: 3
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2021 1:40 pm

goat68 wrote:
Tue Feb 02, 2021 8:32 pm
BigT2019 wrote:
Tue Feb 02, 2021 7:45 pm
I've been actively trading horse racing markets for about 5-6 months now but I've got myself into a vicious cycle (and I'm sure a few can relate to when they first started) where my loss is higher than what I consider to be an acceptable level I.e. Intended cap is say £5-£8 loss but it reaches £12+ for whatever reason (discipline mainly) and yes I take it inplay and it all goes to s*** from there. Now I've noticed a few times I've been lucky with low price favs as they dont always win and so a few times I've won my money back (most often the losses multiply) but of course this is proof that I cannot accept all of my losses and end up chasing some of them. Taking these horrid mistakes out of the equation and my records show my strike rate is around 75-85% and without those big losses from going in play, my account would be in profit. I know that doesn't mean "oh if I stop going inplay then I'll live happily ever after" but clearly this has a serious negative impact on my overall confidence and profitability.
My question is how do you deal with big losses pre-off and avoid the temptation of taking trades inplay in hope to reduce the loss? Brutal honesty/constructive criticism is most welcomed.
i'm only 8months into this journey, and i've been ALL of the above...! My theory is I developed a high hit rate at the start because I was letting my losers run, which paid off quite a bit giving the high hit rate, but then I got that really awful loser, and yes a few times I got angry and let it go inplay, and I was lucky a few times with some big lucky wins! but then lost it on some other big losses. In the long run I was -EV.
- Don't go inplay it's not part of your plan and you're just gambling like I did
- Learn to love your losses as part of your strategy, i'm still not there, but getting closer with Automation. My bot had an awful week last week through a string of misstakes, but i've already got over it and onto a new bot.

All in all i'm still not near being profitable, but i've ticked a number of the boxes to hopefully get there...

Goat's advice (for what it is worth!):
- Don't go inplay
- Don't focus too much on your strike rate
It's nice to know I am not alone! thank you for sharing your experience, I really appreciate it. I hope your bot works out for you in the long run!
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LeTiss
Posts: 5486
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Trading is a peculiar business. I have personally known people fall by the wayside, who I considered to be intellects.....having a brain in your head doesn't mean you'll automatically be a successful trader.
Also, you can spend hours studying form and analysing graphs, but sometimes you just get overwhelmed by information and start second guessing yourself.
Frustration, disappointment, even anger, sometimes boredom - all lead to bad decisions. Invariably, the same bad decsions you were making last week

What you need in trading is big bollocks, confidence without allowing yourself to become arrogant, ambition tinged with a sense of realism......all held together by a serious layer of discipline

Without discipline.....you are toast in this game
BigT2019
Posts: 3
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2021 1:40 pm

Realrocknrolla wrote:
Tue Feb 02, 2021 8:37 pm
BigT2019 wrote:
Tue Feb 02, 2021 7:45 pm
I've been actively trading horse racing markets for about 5-6 months now but I've got myself into a vicious cycle (and I'm sure a few can relate to when they first started) where my loss is higher than what I consider to be an acceptable level I.e. Intended cap is say £5-£8 loss but it reaches £12+ for whatever reason (discipline mainly) and yes I take it inplay and it all goes to s*** from there. Now I've noticed a few times I've been lucky with low price favs as they dont always win and so a few times I've won my money back (most often the losses multiply) but of course this is proof that I cannot accept all of my losses and end up chasing some of them. Taking these horrid mistakes out of the equation and my records show my strike rate is around 75-85% and without those big losses from going in play, my account would be in profit. I know that doesn't mean "oh if I stop going inplay then I'll live happily ever after" but clearly this has a serious negative impact on my overall confidence and profitability.
My question is how do you deal with big losses pre-off and avoid the temptation of taking trades inplay in hope to reduce the loss? Brutal honesty/constructive criticism is most welcomed.
Use the automation rule that greens up everything for you and stops you going inplay.

Think this is it.

viewtopic.php?f=56&t=11361
Thanks I have just downloaded it. I wish I had known about this sooner rather than later..definitely could have saved a few quid!
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Realrocknrolla
Posts: 1910
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm

BigT2019 wrote:
Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:23 pm
Realrocknrolla wrote:
Tue Feb 02, 2021 8:37 pm
BigT2019 wrote:
Tue Feb 02, 2021 7:45 pm
I've been actively trading horse racing markets for about 5-6 months now but I've got myself into a vicious cycle (and I'm sure a few can relate to when they first started) where my loss is higher than what I consider to be an acceptable level I.e. Intended cap is say £5-£8 loss but it reaches £12+ for whatever reason (discipline mainly) and yes I take it inplay and it all goes to s*** from there. Now I've noticed a few times I've been lucky with low price favs as they dont always win and so a few times I've won my money back (most often the losses multiply) but of course this is proof that I cannot accept all of my losses and end up chasing some of them. Taking these horrid mistakes out of the equation and my records show my strike rate is around 75-85% and without those big losses from going in play, my account would be in profit. I know that doesn't mean "oh if I stop going inplay then I'll live happily ever after" but clearly this has a serious negative impact on my overall confidence and profitability.
My question is how do you deal with big losses pre-off and avoid the temptation of taking trades inplay in hope to reduce the loss? Brutal honesty/constructive criticism is most welcomed.
Use the automation rule that greens up everything for you and stops you going inplay.

Think this is it.

viewtopic.php?f=56&t=11361
Thanks I have just downloaded it. I wish I had known about this sooner rather than later..definitely could have saved a few quid!
No worries mate, our mind is a wicked thing isn't it!

All the best bud!
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