Trading What I see !?

[Realrocknrolla]

you know every time I update or create a new bot, I feel great confidence, ie.this feels as though it's going to be it, i've studied the logs and can see what the market was doing.... Only for the future markets to confound my plan

You seem like a smart fella. Have you considered studying the fundamental side of things?

Horse, weight, pedigree, age, track, distance, accessories, weather, jockey, trainer, form, class of race, course specialist, history of nag and the trainer history, expected pace of race etc etc. List is endless.

So interesting point. My approach with manual trading and now automation, was always "Order Flow", which according to Peter has no link to most of the above, or rather it does but indirectly, in that the punters you're following the order flow of have already done this work for you...you're following that and not the form directly...
You can look at these criteria, and form an opinion, and then trade based on that, but that's no good if in reality the market has formed a different opinion, having said that you can always then get better at forming the correct opinion, and obviously many have successfully. So I can't rule it out.
Obviously Guardian only has limited scope for the above on its own, I can see track, distance, class of race as the ones you could infer from "Market name".

I think it could help you knowing more of the sport etc. Not saying it will.

[Trader724]

I'm not interested in any variables other than order flow and I do pretty well. Of course, any information is better than no information, but the idea is that you can do well without knowing all the details in the hope that you will find value. If you are in a positive trade it does not mean that you have found value. As a trader you can take advantage of price fluctuations no matter what the correct price should have been, you react to how those who look at all kinds of statistics react. I do not deny that value can be found, I say that you can do well without knowing a lot of details that have no relevance if people react differently every time.

[speedyhamster]

I'm not interested in any variables other than order flow and I do pretty well. Of course, any information is better than no information, but the idea is that you can do well without knowing all the details in the hope that you will find value. If you are in a positive trade it does not mean that you have found value. As a trader you can take advantage of price fluctuations no matter what the correct price should have been, you react to how those who look at all kinds of statistics react. I do not deny that value can be found, I say that you can do well without knowing a lot of details that have no relevance if people react differently every time.

good post

[goat68]

So updated bot doing crap as well! Currently -£2.80 for the day.
I am happy my trade Exit is better now, but I think my Entry is somewhat poor, so might tweak that. I watched some trades, and it closed out well, ie.it figured the position was turning bad and it did. It's just my entry is pretty poor.
When I started this particular bot I was just greening at the close, and that just seemed poor, I would get the odd good winner, the odd large loss and lots of breakevens. I watched a lot of the breakevens and at one point they were well into profit, for example. £0 to +£1.20 and all the way back to +£0.10 by the close!

[wearthefoxhat]

So updated bot doing crap as well! Currently -£2.80 for the day.
I am happy my trade Exit is better now, but I think my Entry is somewhat poor, so might tweak that. I watched some trades, and it closed out well, ie.it figured the position was turning bad and it did. It's just my entry is pretty poor.
When I started this particular bot I was just greening at the close, and that just seemed poor, I would get the odd good winner, the odd large loss and lots of breakevens. I watched a lot of the breakevens and at one point they were well into profit, for example. £0 to +£1.20 and all the way back to +£0.10 by the close!

With the breakevens , it sounds as though you get on the wave, but miss the sweetspot for the exit when others exiting their trades.

The big wins, seemed to get balanced by the big losses, so try and cut those markets out if possible, and fine tune the break evens.

[goat68]

So updated bot doing crap as well! Currently -£2.80 for the day.
I am happy my trade Exit is better now, but I think my Entry is somewhat poor, so might tweak that. I watched some trades, and it closed out well, ie.it figured the position was turning bad and it did. It's just my entry is pretty poor.
When I started this particular bot I was just greening at the close, and that just seemed poor, I would get the odd good winner, the odd large loss and lots of breakevens. I watched a lot of the breakevens and at one point they were well into profit, for example. £0 to +£1.20 and all the way back to +£0.10 by the close!

With the breakevens , it sounds as though you get on the wave, but miss the sweetspot for the exit when others exiting their trades.

The big wins, seemed to get balanced by the big losses, so try and cut those markets out if possible, and fine tune the break evens.

My updated exit is showing better progress today, bot currently making a fight back, only -£1.60 now.

[goat68]

Another crap bot day... being staring at logs for 2 hours... its is just random there is no rhyme or reason to a move they just happen....
It's interesting following today's racing thread comments, where people (like beermonster!) keep posting big move charts, but of course no-one says how you catch one? You quite often see similar big move charts where they both look identical to the turn point, then one goes up-up...the other down-down... You could enter 10 trades hoping to catch a big mover and lose 9 of them just to get that 1 big move, that 1 big move maybe making up 5 of the losers at best...
Don't get it?
HELP?!

[beermonsterman]

Another crap bot day... being staring at logs for 2 hours... its is just random there is no rhyme or reason to a move they just happen....
It's interesting following today's racing thread comments, where people (like beermonster!) keep posting big move charts, but of course no-one says how you catch one? You quite often see similar big move charts where they both look identical to the turn point, then one goes up-up...the other down-down... You could enter 10 trades hoping to catch a big mover and lose 9 of them just to get that 1 big move, that 1 big move maybe making up 5 of the losers at best...
Don't get it?
HELP?!

without giving too much away i calculate the price of the fav and the second fav and 3rd and then the rest of the field its a calculation I follow that works

[goat68]

Another crap bot day... being staring at logs for 2 hours... its is just random there is no rhyme or reason to a move they just happen....
It's interesting following today's racing thread comments, where people (like beermonster!) keep posting big move charts, but of course no-one says how you catch one? You quite often see similar big move charts where they both look identical to the turn point, then one goes up-up...the other down-down... You could enter 10 trades hoping to catch a big mover and lose 9 of them just to get that 1 big move, that 1 big move maybe making up 5 of the losers at best...
Don't get it?
HELP?!

without giving too much away i calculate the price of the fav and the second fav and 3rd and then the rest of the field its a calculation I follow that works

Thanks appreciate the comment, I just want to know there are some magic formula secrets.
Cheers Beer

[goat68]

So some magic numbers from my bot logs on a single horse, should I Back or should I lay...

[beermonsterman]

Another crap bot day... being staring at logs for 2 hours... its is just random there is no rhyme or reason to a move they just happen....
It's interesting following today's racing thread comments, where people (like beermonster!) keep posting big move charts, but of course no-one says how you catch one? You quite often see similar big move charts where they both look identical to the turn point, then one goes up-up...the other down-down... You could enter 10 trades hoping to catch a big mover and lose 9 of them just to get that 1 big move, that 1 big move maybe making up 5 of the losers at best...
Don't get it?
HELP?!

without giving too much away i calculate the price of the fav and the second fav and 3rd and then the rest of the field its a calculation I follow that works

Thanks appreciate the comment, I just want to know there are some magic formula secrets.
Cheers Beer

yes their is

[beermonsterman]

I give away too much but I believe their is enough fore everyone to profit

[beermonsterman]

without giving too much away i calculate the price of the fav and the second fav and 3rd and then the rest of the field its a calculation I follow that works

Thanks appreciate the comment, I just want to know there are some magic formula secrets.
Cheers Beer

yes their is

I must tell you right now their is no golden fleece or what i say is true but follow me at your own risk I seek steamers and i do find them

[goat68]

So reverted my bot last night to a strategy I was using 3 weeks ago that subsequently morphed and went rogue... but I went back to the original that felt promising at the time. I implemented it with a minor tweak I have learned since. It did ok today, 55% wins, profit £0.59.

[goat68]

PnL chart taking an interesting shape...:

PnLChart2.jpg