Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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ShaunWhite
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goat68 wrote:
Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:55 pm
Unless bot hits a bug, i'm going to leave it as-is til sunday, then review the data. Loving this data stuff, but there is a danger of "fitting" which has caused me issues before...
I hope you don't mind me chipping in but, you're changing your parameters way too often. That's very unlilely to be effective because all you're doing is chasing recent variations. What sample size you need is a whole topic on its own but fyi I trade about 1000 selections a day and still have losing days sometimes, 6 this year already. I wouldn't treat a sample of less than 500 markets as any sort of indication at all as to how you're doing. This is the problem with using trial and error in a live environment, it just takes too long. So if you're serious about automation you'd be better off using these early months to refine your process and methodology so you can rerun multiple variations on the same data. If you don't you'll just be running variation A for a month and then variation B on a different month, and it'll tell you nothng about the difference between A & B because they're running on different races.

People might advise differently but they're often thinking within the contraints of what BA allows you to do. If you're serious about this, think about what you need rather than what you have, and then go and do what's necessary to build it. At the very least learn how to use stats properly and you'll be able to see how statistically relevant your results are, and what sort of deviations would be considered normal for any given trend. Stepping away and doing a few weeks or months of proper study, ideally following a course, will pay dividends and is a trivial amount of time compared to how long you hope to be profitable for. TBH you can't automate without the basic skills to do it, and there aren't any serious automated traders who only use proprietary software or haven't got at least a decent grasp of data analysis and statistics. There's more to it than firing up Guardian and randomly changing things, the quant realm is brutal and margins are small, and even if you're lucky enough to find something by chance you'll probably not be able to repeat it as the market evolves. Also with enough work up front you should have a pretty good idea of how a strategy is going to perform when it goes live, and you'll realise the idea of paying to test and refine (by way of losing) is unnecessary, if you've made that initial investment in time and effort.

You seem really keen and motivated goat68, tbh I wouldn't have bothered commenting if you weren't, so give yourself a fighting chance and I'm sure in a year or two the money will start flowing and hopefully snowball.

Something general: Really try to break away from the mindset that you have an 'open' and a 'close'. You don't, you're just building an inventory of backs and lays on selections as the situation dictates and any sort of 'close' is merely tidying up any excess liability you don't want to carry through to in-play. In fact the whole idea of "opening" and "closing" and calling that a 'trade' is one of the most unhelpful and misleading things that new people get in their heads. Remember too that a major factor in the size of your profit is turnover, and a single "open" and "close" will only ever turnover a fraction of what a strategy that's making multiple bets either side can do. Ditto potentially trading all runners rather than just the favourites, and all sports in all countries, win and place. A market is a market is a market imo, they all behave in roughly the same way. So as I suggested above, get a process and a methodology in place, collect data and build an accurate simulation, then you can run 100s of strategies and variations on large datasets, and you might make some decent money and be able to sustain it.
Emmson
Posts: 3577
Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 6:47 pm

Welcome back ShaunWhite even if short stay. :)
Emmson
Posts: 3577
Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 6:47 pm

StellaBot wrote:
Tue Feb 09, 2021 1:23 am
That goes up

That goes down

Trade it

Specsavers may help for the ignorant
Fatuous needless post , but do you mean like this?
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Emmson
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Kai wrote:
Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:49 pm
Honestly, terminology doesn't matter one bit, it gets borrowed and mixed up from different fields anyway, many people probably trade order flow without realizing it at first.

Yeah I do look at which side lay or back is being eaten quickest.

That other long term beef I have is when folk say if something goes up something else goes down as if its Eurekas Galore for everyone everywhere. We all know that but if its concurrent knowing it means f*ck all.
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goat68
Posts: 2038
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Feb 09, 2021 2:05 am
goat68 wrote:
Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:55 pm
Unless bot hits a bug, i'm going to leave it as-is til sunday, then review the data. Loving this data stuff, but there is a danger of "fitting" which has caused me issues before...
I hope you don't mind me chipping in but, you're changing your parameters way too often. That's very unlilely to be effective because all you're doing is chasing recent variations. What sample size you need is a whole topic on its own but fyi I trade about 1000 selections a day and still have losing days sometimes, 6 this year already. I wouldn't treat a sample of less than 500 markets as any sort of indication at all as to how you're doing. This is the problem with using trial and error in a live environment, it just takes too long. So if you're serious about automation you'd be better off using these early months to refine your process and methodology so you can rerun multiple variations on the same data. If you don't you'll just be running variation A for a month and then variation B on a different month, and it'll tell you nothng about the difference between A & B because they're running on different races.

People might advise differently but they're often thinking within the contraints of what BA allows you to do. If you're serious about this, think about what you need rather than what you have, and then go and do what's necessary to build it. At the very least learn how to use stats properly and you'll be able to see how statistically relevant your results are, and what sort of deviations would be considered normal for any given trend. Stepping away and doing a few weeks or months of proper study, ideally following a course, will pay dividends and is a trivial amount of time compared to how long you hope to be profitable for. TBH you can't automate without the basic skills to do it, and there aren't any serious automated traders who only use proprietary software or haven't got at least a decent grasp of data analysis and statistics. There's more to it than firing up Guardian and randomly changing things, the quant realm is brutal and margins are small, and even if you're lucky enough to find something by chance you'll probably not be able to repeat it as the market evolves. Also with enough work up front you should have a pretty good idea of how a strategy is going to perform when it goes live, and you'll realise the idea of paying to test and refine (by way of losing) is unnecessary, if you've made that initial investment in time and effort.

You seem really keen and motivated goat68, tbh I wouldn't have bothered commenting if you weren't, so give yourself a fighting chance and I'm sure in a year or two the money will start flowing and hopefully snowball.

Something general: Really try to break away from the mindset that you have an 'open' and a 'close'. You don't, you're just building an inventory of backs and lays on selections as the situation dictates and any sort of 'close' is merely tidying up any excess liability you don't want to carry through to in-play. In fact the whole idea of "opening" and "closing" and calling that a 'trade' is one of the most unhelpful and misleading things that new people get in their heads. Remember too that a major factor in the size of your profit is turnover, and a single "open" and "close" will only ever turnover a fraction of what a strategy that's making multiple bets either side can do. Ditto potentially trading all runners rather than just the favourites, and all sports in all countries, win and place. A market is a market is a market imo, they all behave in roughly the same way. So as I suggested above, get a process and a methodology in place, collect data and build an accurate simulation, then you can run 100s of strategies and variations on large datasets, and you might make some decent money and be able to sustain it.
Hi Shaun, good to hear from you, and thanks for the time with this post.
So I take in all of what you say here. I realise I have been switching tweaking too often, hence my step in the right direction statement about not changing this week...(that's about 150 trades/week). I am also working on some stats, basic stuff to start with, you should see some this Sunday from me hopefully, and it's not based on pure BA. Through using Import/Export CSV I have integrated my bot with a java app I have written, I know it's peanuts compared to what you're doing but it's immediately added quite a big benefit for me.
Interesting your open/close thoughts, I can certainly see from your quant perspective why that would be the case. I'm obviously more simple at the moment, working on models i've seen through manual trading and ideas on order flow. So my trade model is 1) this position looks like a good trade entry 2) this position looks like a good trade exit, as you do with manual trading.
Thanks again
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napshnap
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Feb 09, 2021 2:05 am
...
Remember too that a major factor in the size of your profit is turnover, and a single "open" and "close" will only ever turnover a fraction of what a strategy that's making multiple bets either side can do.
...
This can be a bad advice for newbies who can't afford big profit/loss variation and who need clear and precise indication that their ways of trading are profitable.
What do you think about final hedging by SP? It may solve this problem, despite there are some pitfalls, ofc.
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Kai
Posts: 7053
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Emmson wrote:
Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:51 am
Kai wrote:
Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:49 pm
Honestly, terminology doesn't matter one bit, it gets borrowed and mixed up from different fields anyway, many people probably trade order flow without realizing it at first.

Yeah I do look at which side lay or back is being eaten quickest.

That other long term beef I have is when folk say if something goes up something else goes down as if its Eurekas Galore for everyone everywhere. We all know that but if its concurrent knowing it means f*ck all.
Exactly, case in point. I've already noticed you trade order flow, among other things, there are obviously many ways to trade it and it can also be used to support your opinions etc.

My second post wasn't aimed at anyone in particular, just wanted to help quantify it a bit differently for anyone following this thread.
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Kai
Posts: 7053
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Tue Feb 09, 2021 12:21 am
Kai wrote:
Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:49 pm
Honestly, terminology doesn't matter one bit, it gets borrowed and mixed up from different fields anyway, many people probably trade order flow without realizing it at first.

In other words, "reading order flow" is looking for moments of imbalance between the backers and the layers, and when that imbalance happens the price will move until the balance between orders is restored, or until it gets flipped and so on.

Paying close attention to it can help you anticipate moves before they happen, and I'd say that the orders that are already sitting on the ladder are far less important than the orders that are coming in.

Which obviously means that you don't really need to know anything about the market that you're trading, as long as you read order flow (what's happening on the ladder) and react accordingly. This is a good way to trade since forming opinions beforehand can work against you, which is actually the very name of this whole thread.

So I wouldn't worry about terminology too much, you are free to make up your own terminology like all decent traders do :)

Here's one of my own examples : a swang. That's just a swing that has some swag to it, you already know the ones I'm talking about!!!
Haven't been following this thread for a while though I see it's grown. I may argue relentlessly with CTs but I wouldn't have the energy for this thread. :)
As fun as nonsense threads and pointless arguments can be, this thread practically follows a trading journey over a longer period so it may be the closest thing to an educational thread that the forum has :)
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firlandsfarm
Posts: 3317
Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am

napshnap wrote:
Tue Feb 09, 2021 9:12 am
What do you think about final hedging by SP? It may solve this problem, despite there are some pitfalls, ofc.
Even hedging by taking SP is not without a 'decision' ... do you take SP and put all your loss on one runner or do you red-up so spread your loss over the field?
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firlandsfarm
Posts: 3317
Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am

Emmson wrote:
Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:51 am
That other long term beef I have is when folk say if something goes up something else goes down as if its Eurekas Galore for everyone everywhere. We all know that but if its concurrent knowing it means f*ck all.
Totally agree, made that point a few times myself ... don't know why people bang on about "one up one or more down"! It's not a case of saying "that one has gone up I wonder which will come down?" It's a matter of "that one has gone up I wonder which HAS come down!"
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napshnap
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Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:21 am

firlandsfarm wrote:
Tue Feb 09, 2021 12:32 pm
napshnap wrote:
Tue Feb 09, 2021 9:12 am
What do you think about final hedging by SP? It may solve this problem, despite there are some pitfalls, ofc.
Even hedging by taking SP is not without a 'decision' ... do you take SP and put all your loss on one runner or do you red-up so spread your loss over the field?
I mean just hedge each runner you traded by its projected SP (near-SP as they call it) right before the start for equal profit/loss.
We consider here that the market knows best and risk of "closing" our trades by non-valuebale price will be minimal (with a rare exceptions).
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ShaunWhite
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Emmson wrote:
Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:32 am
Welcome back ShaunWhite even if short stay. :)
Hi Emmson. I needed the break cos the forum was like being in an abusive relationship with someone you love. I think I'll start seeing it again but I'm not sure I should move back in permanently. 😊
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Euler
Posts: 26269
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm

Your contributions were always insightful and welcome, even if some people didn't see it that way.

The trouble is it's impossible to please everybody all the time, even if you are right.
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

firlandsfarm wrote:
Tue Feb 09, 2021 12:36 pm
Emmson wrote:
Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:51 am
That other long term beef I have is when folk say if something goes up something else goes down as if its Eurekas Galore for everyone everywhere. We all know that but if its concurrent knowing it means f*ck all.
Totally agree, made that point a few times myself ... don't know why people bang on about "one up one or more down"! It's not a case of saying "that one has gone up I wonder which will come down?" It's a matter of "that one has gone up I wonder which HAS come down!"

Granted its probably over simplistic advice but its amazing how many people don't take it on board. People can sometimes get tunnel vision and only focus on the runner they're invested in and maybe the 2nd and 3rd favourite and pay no attention to what's going on further down the book and are then left scratching their head wondering how the favourite drifted when the 2nd & 3rd runners barely moved in price.

I think a lot of profitable traders don't offer advice for that reason. A lot of new traders either throw it back in their face or ignore the advice altogether so its just a waste of time. My personal favourite is advising people to record their trades. So often somebody will come along, ask for advice, the advice will be to record your trades and watch them back but 6 months later the same person is asking the same question and if they would have just spent a little time watching their trades back then the answer was probably staring them in the face and they'd have figured it out months earlier.
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