Technical Analysis is stupid

A place to discuss anything.
Locked
rik
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=2019&v= ... e=youtu.be

At 33min he argues technical analysis in sports trading having "minimal predictive power" and is largely leading new traders down a dead end focusing on candle sticks etc
I thinnk hes making some good points, do you agree?
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 25159
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am

rik wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:55 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=2019&v= ... e=youtu.be

At 33min he argues technical analysis in sports trading having "minimal predictive power" and is largely leading new traders down a dead end focusing on candle sticks etc
I thinnk hes making some good points, do you agree?
I'm not into TA but I would say TA depends on the analyst, not the concept. Some idiots find they're useless at something and draw the conclusion that it's useless rather than them. How many times have we heard someone say, you can win on football but not on horse racing?
User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 23513
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm

I'd love to know which sports trading 'gurus' he's been around when talking about support/resistance @ 39mins :lol:
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

I've listened to that for 5 minutes and feel like I need to ring the Samaritans
rik
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am

Trader Pat wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 6:28 pm
I've listened to that for 5 minutes and feel like I need to ring the Samaritans
ha, what do you mean?
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 26330
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm

rik wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 6:52 pm
ha, what do you mean?
His voice!
User avatar
Realrocknrolla
Posts: 1910
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm

Euler wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 6:57 pm
rik wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 6:52 pm
ha, what do you mean?
His voice!
Not quite the Raymond Reddington voice
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Sorry I was just been talked down off a roof

He sounds a bit like Jo Brand but without the punchline
User avatar
Kai
Posts: 7071
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Trader Pat wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:25 pm
Sorry I was just been talked down off a roof

He sounds a bit like Jo Brand but without the punchline
So Jo Bland then? :) Not sure who any of these people are but I was getting an Alex Ferguson vibe for a moment there.

He does sound normal if you put the Playback Speed to 1.5x.
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 26330
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm

I don't blame people for not believing, as YouTube is stuffed full of clickbait nowadays, but this is also clickbait and misleading.

There are a few valid points in the video, but the general thrust is off the mark and indicates that he hasn't actually tried or attempted to understand how people like us trade. His ladder is the wrong way around for starters.

I only trade high liquidity periods, don't particularly look at form to make a judgement and yes, I use graphs and key points in the market and order flow. But I have a whole set of strategies in my arsenal built up over nearly 20 years in the markets.

I've often produced detailed videos discussed specific topics in depth, but they rarely get many views. But also, I've made an insane amount of money doing this. I just can't believe that I'll still doing it all these years later, but I also can't believe that I'm still asked to justify if I actually do it. It's amazing that this is still the case, but it makes me believe that it's quite likely I'll continue to be able to do this for years to come.
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 26330
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm

My Gambling Background
My name is Artimus Paint. I have a PhD and a background in statistics. Despite having a good salary, I left the 9-5 grind over 10 years ago. My work hours were longer than 9-5 and I valued my time more than money. Since then, I have started various internet businesses.

I have made 6 figures “gambling” online. I achieved that over 10 years. I had a full-time job as well for 4 of those years. I made this money from backgammon, poker and matched betting.
Looks like he has been arbing or matched betting for a while.

I'd say the biggest sceptics I meet in this space are the PhD's, because if they can't do it then everybody else is just too stupid to be able to.
User avatar
goat68
Posts: 2038
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

Euler wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 8:03 pm
I've often produced detailed videos discussed specific topics in depth, but they rarely get many views.
I'm surprised, i've watched many of your videos MANY times!
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 26330
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm

goat68 wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 8:07 pm
I'm surprised, i've watched many of your videos MANY times!
If I put a partially naked women on the thumbnail and called it 'Three easy ways to make a risk free second income and pay off your debts tomorrow with this easy betting strategy' I would probably get 100,000's of views as that has the broadest appeal.

But I deliberately don't, as I consciously can't head into the gutter, so it's only people that really go in-depth find the videos and that's always going to be a niche.

But actually that's probably no bad thing to be honest.
User avatar
Realrocknrolla
Posts: 1910
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm

Euler wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 8:20 pm
goat68 wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 8:07 pm
I'm surprised, i've watched many of your videos MANY times!
If I put a partially naked women on the thumbnail and called it 'Three easy ways to make a risk free second income and pay off your debts tomorrow with this easy betting strategy' I would probably get 100,000's of views as that has the broadest appeal.

But I deliberately don't, as I consciously can't head into the gutter, so it's only people that really go in-depth find the videos and that's always going to be a niche.

But actually that's probably no bad thing to be honest.
Never change. Your material is priceless. And i think i speak for most people on the forum.
User avatar
Kai
Posts: 7071
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

rik wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:55 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=2019&v= ... e=youtu.be

At 33min he argues technical analysis in sports trading having "minimal predictive power" and is largely leading new traders down a dead end focusing on candle sticks etc
I thinnk hes making some good points, do you agree?
Hard to make a fair comment without really seeing the video, but I think it's normal that people have a hard time quantifying it all and it's far easier for them to just dismiss things they don't understand.

Just because a random punter or matched bettor has a PhD in stats it doesn't exactly make him qualified to discuss technical analysis and trading order flow etc in such a way. If he's not a trader and is on the outside looking in then he virtually has no chance of understanding these concepts, let alone quantifying them for others.

But to be fair, you can't blame the guy too much because many opportunists have muddied the shallow waters of this industry, so I can imagine it's very difficult for him to tell sharks apart from plankton, but if he puts any real effort into it then it should be pretty obvious and he should be seeing nothing but crystal clear Caribbean water.
Locked

Return to “General discussion”