Trading What I see !?

[jimibt]

you silly bugg3r - it'll end in cheers.

good to see you back. tried that build and live biz about 20 years ago, would definitely have no energy for that now, but you do find you get swept along. our kids' happiest memories are of a period where they all had to sleep in the same bedroom (1st world issues ) - this was their KiDsFM period... getting me all nostalgic now - lol

btw- i preferred Flanagan and Allen!!

When I realise how unfit I am I'll probably scale the project back to a skim and emulsion.

yeah, the static will end up looking quite nice then

[vhdgkl]

hi..I would like some suggestions on this thought...

do a steamer and a drifter reach the top and bottom in different ways and at different times? one slower, the other faster...what do you think?

At first glance, I think that a steamer takes longer to reach the bottom, while a drifter is faster....
I'm trying to think about reversal points, and so far, it seems to me that a trend stops in 2 situations 1) when money arrives in the opposite direction 2) when money that supports the trend stops arriving

Then,sometimes the trend starts again,sometimes it doesn't,and sometimes the trend reverses...so I was trying to think about what is more probable and I am analyzing some things,including the difference in speed and linearity with which a steamer and a drifetr move.

do you have any suggestions?


How is February going? I remember that when I was trading, it was the most terrible month ever...I always made the record daily gain in February, but at the same time it was by far the worst month of the year.

[beermonsterman]

hi..I would like some suggestions on this thought...

do a steamer and a drifter reach the top and bottom in different ways and at different times? one slower, the other faster...what do you think?

At first glance, I think that a steamer takes longer to reach the bottom, while a drifter is faster....
I'm trying to think about reversal points, and so far, it seems to me that a trend stops in 2 situations 1) when money arrives in the opposite direction 2) when money that supports the trend stops arriving

Then,sometimes the trend starts again,sometimes it doesn't,and sometimes the trend reverses...so I was trying to think about what is more probable and I am analyzing some things,including the difference in speed and linearity with which a steamer and a drifetr move.

do you have any suggestions?


How is February going? I remember that when I was trading, it was the most terrible month ever...I always made the record daily gain in February, but at the same time it was by far the worst month of the year.

My opinion here is start with a lay to backs are more safer because if something goes wrong with your horse track side that you are expecting to steam but suddenly starts playing up it will drift rapid style and you will find it hard to get out without laying at silly odds to make sure you get out because its real its happening people see it and react especially if its the fav as most smart people back the second rather than lay the horse that plays up when most automatically jump on the laying the fav following a trend catch a cold if its pulled before the off but steamers are slow because of the uncertainty that sits behind all the backers
So in a nut shell horses drift fast if something happens track side as its certain as backing a horse is more uncertain as most dont really have the knowledge of the horses ability to win and thus more caution is held but I have had a few gambled horses that steam pretty quick at the last 30 seconds and also some horses I here bookies dropping liability's on and also steam pretty well just finding them is plan for me anyway
Lays drift quicker than steamers steam is what I'm saying due to the above probably more to it which I can go on forever like 2v1 scenario's etc
My unprofessional opinion

[firlandsfarm]

I mean just hedge each runner you traded by its projected SP (near-SP as they call it) right before the start for equal profit/loss.
We consider here that the market knows best and risk of "closing" our trades by non-valuebale price will be minimal (with a rare exceptions).

I agree I was just saying that even with a simple one selection position you still have to make a decision which way to hedge it out.

[MAGTRADEUK]

Is pre race trading just some people with larger bank rolls pushing numbers either one way or the other?
Sometimes I just cant see how any opinion of how a horse will perform can move so many tick in a swing so quickly sometimes seconds, to me I am just so sure its nothing to do with the horse or the opinion on how the horse will perform but some people just moving the prices one way or the other, big bets for a few ticks.

[MAGTRADEUK]

mind you saying that I notice that the Leicester match tonight seem to also had a big move but I suspect thats more to do with a team sheet or such.

[Kai]

mind you saying that I notice that the Leicester match tonight seem to also had a big move but I suspect thats more to do with a team sheet or such.

Yeah, Leicester was a bonkers move.

[MAGTRADEUK]

and what a game, they got through with just about the last kick, phew if you had the cahoonaz to make that play............

[CallumPerry]

Sorry goat, nearly two days before I noticed but ShaunWhite... when he types advice, listen. Trust me, this will shave MONTHS off of your learning curve if acted upon properly. I've learned so much from him over the years and I completely agree foremost with the comments about capturing data. You do seem dedicated and hardworking and with a decent bit of computer knowledge, perfect for automation (pretty sure I recommended you dive into that side of things early on ).

Just look at your pretty chart with multiple colours. If you captured detailed data, you could see how each colour performed over the course of your sample and then you could compare their performances with each other. You can quickly trial new ideas on a substantial dataset too and then get into the hardcore data crunching. Honestly, I believe this was the moment I finally saw a light at the end of the pay-to-learn tunnel.

[goat68]

Sorry goat, nearly two days before I noticed but ShaunWhite... when he types advice, listen. Trust me, this will shave MONTHS off of your learning curve if acted upon properly. I've learned so much from him over the years and I completely agree foremost with the comments about capturing data. You do seem dedicated and hardworking and with a decent bit of computer knowledge, perfect for automation (pretty sure I recommended you dive into that side of things early on ).

Just look at your pretty chart with multiple colours. If you captured detailed data, you could see how each colour performed over the course of your sample and then you could compare their performances with each other. You can quickly trial new ideas on a substantial dataset too and then get into the hardcore data crunching. Honestly, I believe this was the moment I finally saw a light at the end of the pay-to-learn tunnel.

Yes, I see where you're going with that. I'm working in that direction, but small steps. I'm capturing data from Guardian now externally, so will have some baby stats this week. But I see your idea, pump the data into a SQLDB or something you can run models through...
Thanks

[goat68]

Sorry goat, nearly two days before I noticed but ShaunWhite... when he types advice, listen. Trust me, this will shave MONTHS off of your learning curve if acted upon properly. I've learned so much from him over the years and I completely agree foremost with the comments about capturing data. You do seem dedicated and hardworking and with a decent bit of computer knowledge, perfect for automation (pretty sure I recommended you dive into that side of things early on ).

Just look at your pretty chart with multiple colours. If you captured detailed data, you could see how each colour performed over the course of your sample and then you could compare their performances with each other. You can quickly trial new ideas on a substantial dataset too and then get into the hardcore data crunching. Honestly, I believe this was the moment I finally saw a light at the end of the pay-to-learn tunnel.

And ah yes you did suggest, but i am a firm believer i needed to get my hands dirty in the market first to try and understand how it works and feels...but you were right in my direction

[Kai]

Just look at your pretty chart with multiple colours.

Yes, the Data is apparently strong with this one.

Yet another young padawan seduced by the dark side of automation

At this rate, soon there will be nobody left to randomly click on the ladder in the faint hope of securing profit.

[speedyhamster]

Mark Douglas of trading in the zone discusses trading

part one https://youtu.be/7ocTVm-M7q8
part two https://youtu.be/gtY3eOeoGDs

discusses Edges , market patterns , mindset, trading errors, Trading Psychology, random trading etc

NOTE: In terms of what Mark discusses BUY = LAY and SELL = BACK

[speedyhamster]

I'm coming to the conclusion there are no patterns, or rather there is a pattern, the pattern is "that there are no patterns"

part one https://youtu.be/7ocTVm-M7q8 Mark Douglas of trading in the zone discusses this and fear based trading. and lots of info that you might find useful

[goat68]

Scatter chart of the bot so far this week:

Scatter.jpg