I have collected some data and want to see if i have a profitable system.
I want to lay both players at a certain percentage from there starting price.
I understand that if both players are 2 then if i lay 20% lower that i would put a lay bet in for each at 1.8 say for £100 and if both are matched i would get £20 profit (less comm) and if only one was matched i would lose £80, but say the players are 1.66 & 2.5 and i want to lay them both 20% away the prices i want to lay at are 1.53 (19.7%) & 2.2 (20%)
But what amounts should i lay them for?
Laying 2 players in a tennis match analysing data
Fine i see that will give me equal profit if both are matched but if only one is laid my exposure is different for instance the 1.53 lay of £117.96 would have exposure of £62.52 whereas the 2.2 lay of £82.04 would have an exposure of £98.45.
So if when im calucalting my figures if there is a run of outsiders i would be losing more.
I want to set a spreadsheet where i enter the prices and regardless of the results it will calulate over a period i would be losing or winning and how much.
So if when im calucalting my figures if there is a run of outsiders i would be losing more.
I want to set a spreadsheet where i enter the prices and regardless of the results it will calulate over a period i would be losing or winning and how much.
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
I don't wish to spoil your strategy before you have started it but.........sorry there is always a but.....the market is pretty efficient and whilst with lots of fine tuning and instant changes you may find a profit, sadly the market will not offer up too many opportunities like the one you mention before someone closes the error.
It's a bit like laying the field in horse racing below 2.00, yes it is possible to make a profit doing it..but....you cannot do it blind, you need to know a bit about the race and how it is unfolding. So in your tennis system it has a better chance of working if you are having an input using your skill/knowledge of the game whereas a straight "system" is likely to fail because the market is too efficient in the long term.
Good luck though because you may find something else that does work whilst you pursue your initial idea. I was doing a similar thing for pre-race horse racing trying to implement a strategy. It didn't work but through my study I spotted something else that is currently working very well. I have been in the markets for many years and even I am still surprised that this method I am using is still working.
It's a bit like laying the field in horse racing below 2.00, yes it is possible to make a profit doing it..but....you cannot do it blind, you need to know a bit about the race and how it is unfolding. So in your tennis system it has a better chance of working if you are having an input using your skill/knowledge of the game whereas a straight "system" is likely to fail because the market is too efficient in the long term.
Good luck though because you may find something else that does work whilst you pursue your initial idea. I was doing a similar thing for pre-race horse racing trying to implement a strategy. It didn't work but through my study I spotted something else that is currently working very well. I have been in the markets for many years and even I am still surprised that this method I am using is still working.