Trading What I see !?

[jimibt]

that said, in company like that you really need to have your clones with you to interrogate them all at the same time - gold in tham thar hills

yeah it's a balancing act, be knowedgable enough not to be the class clown, but not so much you daren't ask questions. The question is, what questions!

There's no great secrets. I mentioned closing, he said "why are you closing", and I said "mmm good question". That's all it was really. I've got someone else to thank big time for most of the other 'value' stuff which was really the major turning point...tbh Jim I don't have any original thought. I just ask 'why' a lot then do what I'm told.

why -and how high sir!!

but i do love those little language details that just ping a lightbulb ("why are you closing") - this circles nicely back to the ongoing *value* debacle

[ShaunWhite]

but i do love those little language details that just ping a lightbulb ("why are you closing") - this circles nicely back to the ongoing *value* debacle

The other thing I've learnt way too late in life is about assumptions. It's suprising how much you do that you never question. 'closing' was one of those, ditto looking at the top of the market, ditto being steered towards large stable markets, same with thinking things like race type matter when essentially every market is the same old game of supply and demand that's been going on for thousands of years, and the biggy 'trading' somehow not being 2 bets.

[jimibt]

but i do love those little language details that just ping a lightbulb ("why are you closing") - this circles nicely back to the ongoing *value* debacle

The other thing I've learnt way too late in life is about assumptions. It's suprising how much you do that you never question. 'closing' was one of those, ditto looking at the top of the market, ditto being steered towards large stable markets, same with thinking things like race type matter when essentially every market is the same old game of supply and demand that's been going on for thousands of years, and the biggy 'trading' somehow not being 2 bets.

i assume you've been downloading my brain - that's my assumption

[flamingofan]

Hi all.

I have been trading horses for around 5 months. It has been a frustrating journey but a couple of weeks ago I made a point to read every post on this thread and since then things have really started to turn around.

The last 7/8 days have been 'profitable' using practice mode and my strike rate has been around 90%. If I continue this good form for the rest of the week then I am tempted to return to real stakes after an ill fated attempt previously where I stupidly went in-play and lost a fair amount. I will not be making that mistake again.

I have been a full time matched bettor for 2 years and done pretty well but my main source of profit has unfortunately now dried up. I am in a situation where I could really do with some income from trading. For the last couple of weeks I would have been making £100 per day consistently if I was trading real stakes. I feel confident enough to be able to do so but given I have only been trading 5 months and people on here are unprofitable after 2 years I am worried that I am not experienced enough and it's too soon.

Am I getting ahead of myself? Is 5 months too soon to jump on real stakes of £50-£250? Does my recent progress signify that I have truly made progress or could it be a false dawn?

I would be interested to know your thoughts and experiences you had when you reached a level of confidence where everything seemed to click and you thought you could do it. Thanks for all the advice I have picked up on here so far.

[goat68]

I have been trading horses for around 5 months. It has been a frustrating journey but a couple of weeks ago I made a point to read every post on this thread and since then things have really started to turn around.

Glad i've managed to help someone, if not myself, well done, keep it up.
I'm just getting myself so stressed at the moment with frustration.

[goat68]

the biggy 'trading' somehow not being 2 bets.

I know you've told me this thing about not thinking about it being open & close, but you're essentially letting it go inplay, but that's actually fine in the long run as long as you've got an idea you open'd at "value" I guess?

[jimibt]

the biggy 'trading' somehow not being 2 bets.

I know you've told me this thing about not thinking about it being open & close, but you're essentially letting it go inplay, but that's actually fine in the long run as long as you've got an idea you open'd at "value" I guess?

i think the MASTER plan is that it's matched pre race with the intention of gaining value as a result. and that means letting it run as a straight bet.

[goat68]

the biggy 'trading' somehow not being 2 bets.

I know you've told me this thing about not thinking about it being open & close, but you're essentially letting it go inplay, but that's actually fine in the long run as long as you've got an idea you open'd at "value" I guess?

i think the MASTER plan is that it's matched pre race with the intention of gaining value as a result. and that means letting it run as a straight bet.

yeah, but what if it loses?

[goat68]

I don't really get it, everyone goes on about not letting trades go inplay... but here we are...?

[wearthefoxhat]

I don't really get it, everyone goes on about not letting trades go inplay... but here we are...?

I'm sure I've mentioned it before, but worth mentioning again.

This bot from Dallas, can be kept as is, or converted to Lay then Back. It's a strong starting point.
viewtopic.php?f=52&t=19933

The way the in-play market moves, you can sometimes get value from an over-reaction and get more profit, whatever the result. The initial stake should never exceed 1% of your bank, as there will be losses too. Nominating the right "type" of horse is key, but there are websites (free) that can help.

The thing is, as with anything with trading/gambling, it takes real effort to change direction and try something new. Pre-Trade v In-Play markets behave differently. It's tempting to allow a poor Pre-trade with a loss to try and recover In-play. Might get away with it a few times, but all it needs is for it to go wrong once.

[jimibt]

I know you've told me this thing about not thinking about it being open & close, but you're essentially letting it go inplay, but that's actually fine in the long run as long as you've got an idea you open'd at "value" I guess?

i think the MASTER plan is that it's matched pre race with the intention of gaining value as a result. and that means letting it run as a straight bet.

yeah, but what if it loses?

you're getting there!! if it loses, then it's all factored into the value calculation. so, you calculate the market odds (tissue prices) based on your own criteria. you *pick* 1 (or 2) candidates that exceed what your calculation produced. so in effect, your calculation factored the runners at 5 & 6 odds, but the market has them at 10 & 12 odds. this is how you capitalise on value. the secret of course is in calculating your own tissue price. there are analytical tools to help with this and there are folks that understand all the hideen parameters that make a runner an undervalued candidate. put these all together and you only need to be right 1 time in 8-10 (if 10-12 odds) to be coining it in.

caveat - this reply is way below the basics required to make your own tissue, but hopefully, you will be inspired to google this concept.

[rik]

Hi all.

I have been trading horses for around 5 months. It has been a frustrating journey but a couple of weeks ago I made a point to read every post on this thread and since then things have really started to turn around.

The last 7/8 days have been 'profitable' using practice mode and my strike rate has been around 90%. If I continue this good form for the rest of the week then I am tempted to return to real stakes after an ill fated attempt previously where I stupidly went in-play and lost a fair amount. I will not be making that mistake again.

I have been a full time matched bettor for 2 years and done pretty well but my main source of profit has unfortunately now dried up. I am in a situation where I could really do with some income from trading. For the last couple of weeks I would have been making £100 per day consistently if I was trading real stakes. I feel confident enough to be able to do so but given I have only been trading 5 months and people on here are unprofitable after 2 years I am worried that I am not experienced enough and it's too soon.

Am I getting ahead of myself? Is 5 months too soon to jump on real stakes of £50-£250? Does my recent progress signify that I have truly made progress or could it be a false dawn?

I would be interested to know your thoughts and experiences you had when you reached a level of confidence where everything seemed to click and you thought you could do it. Thanks for all the advice I have picked up on here so far.

Careful with practise mode, its not queueing money and matching your full amount instantly so will produce unrealistic results.
If your always top of queue even when there is thousands in front of you at the bigger races, scalping is impossible to lose and getting £1000 matched on the first £2 bet also unrealistic.
Your better of trying with minimum stake and thats still easier than trading with £100 or £200.

[Derek27]

Careful with practise mode, its not queueing money and matching your full amount instantly so will produce unrealistic results.
If your always top of queue even when there is thousands in front of you at the bigger races, scalping is impossible to lose and getting £1000 matched on the first £2 bet also unrealistic.
Your better of trying with minimum stake and thats still easier than trading with £100 or £200.

I thought practice mode (virtually) queues the money?

But if you back £1K at 3.5 and £2 gets matched at 3.55 I think practice mode has to assume your £1K was taken because the price went through it. The big issue I had with practice mode is that if I place a £100 bet and the market went against me, I'd chuck another £500 or more on hoping for a rebound. If it went further against me I'd up stakes and throw on a few grand, because it's not real money. I've lost 5-figure sums quickly in practice mode - I just couldn't take it seriously.

[rik]

Careful with practise mode, its not queueing money and matching your full amount instantly so will produce unrealistic results.
If your always top of queue even when there is thousands in front of you at the bigger races, scalping is impossible to lose and getting £1000 matched on the first £2 bet also unrealistic.
Your better of trying with minimum stake and thats still easier than trading with £100 or £200.

I thought practice mode (virtually) queues the money?

But if you back £1K at 3.5 and £2 gets matched at 3.55 I think practice mode has to assume your £1K was taken because the price went through it. The big issue I had with practice mode is that if I place a £100 bet and the market went against me, I'd chuck another £500 or more on hoping for a rebound. If it went further against me I'd up stakes and throw on a few grand, because it's not real money. I've lost 5-figure sums quickly in practice mode - I just couldn't take it seriously.

My bad had just used practise mode on bfexplorer long ago, maybe betangel is better but it can never accurately predict how many orders ahead of you were pulled out.
Also it might not matter much at smaller stakes but betting £100 or £200 or betting in smaller markets like greyhound your money will have influence on the price, you might trigger a bot that puts a stake ahead of you etc
Can you get partially matched on betangel practise mode and its somewhat accurate? I would just get matched instantly whatever the amount
I believe minimum stake is more accurate and you can get your account locked for using practise mode excessively without ever using real money.

[ShaunWhite]

I don't really get it, everyone goes on about not letting trades go inplay... but here we are...?

If you're trading with £500 and making -5s and +10s, then it's definately NOT a good idea to just let all that 500 run and start looking at -2000s and +2000s. And 'Letting trades go inplay' is absolutely a terrible idea if you're trying to claw bad a nasty pre-off position. Closing or reducing your liability at bsp is exactly the ok thing to do BUT.... let's say you had a back position which netted at £50 staked at 6/1 and the horse was going off at 3/1, there's a decent argument for letting some of that run. ie question yourself about why you're laying a 3/1 horse at 3/1. I haven't got the credentials to back that up but Peter himself has mentioned situations where it screams value and letting some money run is worth considering.

I don't want to be patronising but don't get too hung up on this, some of it is theoretical (ie all races vs just a few 100 a week) and most people don't have the wallet to ride the huge rollercoaster just to squeeze and extra 0.2% out of a strategy. (I certainly don't). And this isn't really about closing or not it's just about recognising that every back and every lay is an individual bet on the actual outcome, rather than being a pair of bets, and also how you might find decent value bets.

btw watch Peter live trading, it's not open then close, it's back back lay lay back lay back as he's seeing fair value being indicated as being somewhere other than where the market currently is (either by orderflow or one of his other 19 secret herbs and spices).....then just a tidy up of any outstanding liability at the end. Value bet, value bet, value bet and a neutral tidy up. Or at least that what it looks like. Yes it's looking for situations where a move is more likely to go one way than another...but why is that move more likely? Because the current price is 'wrong'.

tbh goat68 it confuses the sh!t out of me most of the time so don't change too much. If I understood it fully I'd be sat where the big dogs are instead of still getting to grips with it.

...hopeless an being brief and succinct, sorry.