I see yes thanks Goatgoat68 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 9:29 amYou're a "steamer" guy, so I guess what they're saying above is you basically back at "value" as you have determined the price at that time is value, ie.the market is actually pricing it far further down... You back Red Rum at 2.75 as you see it steaming as you have read the market as probably pricing it at 2.0, so you have bought great "value" at 2.75.beermonsterman wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 9:24 amYou lot have all gone wild since I been gone took me ages to catch up
All that talk about value ETC ETC has blew my head off
How come I can turn up to a market take one look at all the runners prices then a quick gander at traded volume then a little topping of graph Viewing .......I can then make my assumption of where things are going to end up and most of the time I get it spot on ?
What I'm saying is I have no idea how to find value so I guess value has nothing to do with my trading the
pre race markets
So in a nutshell would you say I'm just gambling or does value mean nothing to pre race trades and if it does I must be leaving a shit load on the table
I like to add my 2 pence in
Trading What I see !?
-
beermonsterman
- Posts: 538
- Joined: Sun Dec 25, 2016 2:47 pm
When you will increase more you will see that from a certain level it will become a problem.napshnap wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:50 amYou see, even if I know exactly that market will eat through my bets without a problem, I'm still experiencing psychological discomfort cause I'll have to adapt to new bet size.
It's making a comeback only -£23 now
I'm actually quite happy with it, i'm sort of more happy with understanding this value thing now... although I highly suspect my value measurement metric is most likely dubious, but over a week the PnL volatility should hopefully work itself out, unless I am unlucky!
Hey all,
First time poster here, but I've followed this thread throughout. I've been trading for the best part of a year now, and the last 4-5 weeks I've finally started to see my P&L move consistently in the right direction. I'm a novice by some of the standards set on the forum, but a novice which is spending a huge amount of time trying to understand what really happens in Betfair markets..
Goat - one thing that helped me just before Xmas was to reset and actually go back to basics on what a market actually is. Remember - it's only a place where 2 parties exchange a product at a given price. What influences that price is simply supply and demand, and the same principle applies to pre-off horse racing trading.
There is a ton of amazing information on this thread, I actually learnt a huge amount following it myself, but as I went along I found myself trying to absorb too much of it. I genuinely believe that (for me anyway) the key to building a successful foundation in understanding a market is not trying to master everything, pick one thing and focus on it from every angle, and then branch out. I picked volume, and the influence of volume on prices across all participants in the market. A couple of key points that I wanted to investigate were:
1. What happens when the traded volume temporarily dries up on a given horse? How does this affect the price of the horse in question and the other runners?
2. What happens when the traded volume temporarily spikes on a given horse? How does this affect the price of the horse in question and the other runners?
3. What happens with both of the above but over a sustained period of time?
4. What level of traded volume is required to keep a horse at a given price? How does this affect the overall market? Do some horses at a given price require more traded volume than others to sustain their price levels?
Volume is obviously one element of a market, but it's a key element. After spending quite a long time studying the questions above, it felt like I had started to understand a small component of a market, and from there it allowed me to focus on some very focused setups that I'd look for in each market I'd come across. Everything else that could affect the market was just ignored, if an idea came to mind that wasn't related to the setup I was looking for it was just noted down for future investigation. After 4-5 weeks of implementing what I had studied, it's certainly looking like I'm heading in the right direction, and I'm starting to look a bit deeper into other areas. Why don't you try and go back to basics aswell? With everything you now know, studying the basics again may even trigger some ideas that you hadn't thought about.
Another point I wanted to mention was your focus on chasing an edge. Now that you're looking at automation, this is probably far less relevant, but remember an "edge" can come from a variety of things and that is not just limited to trade execution. You could have the most profitable strategy in the world but if you don't manage your engagement with said strategy then it's useless. For example, I genuinely believe that I understand Poker to a level where I could make some good money from the game, but I simply don't have the mindset for it. I've tried for years, I know the "edge" is there, but my execution of it always fails due to my inability to manage it properly. Don't fall into the trap of trying to chase an edge and forgetting that the key to being successful is more than just trying to find something in a market that may give you an advantage.
Best of luck - I'll continue to follow your journey!
First time poster here, but I've followed this thread throughout. I've been trading for the best part of a year now, and the last 4-5 weeks I've finally started to see my P&L move consistently in the right direction. I'm a novice by some of the standards set on the forum, but a novice which is spending a huge amount of time trying to understand what really happens in Betfair markets..
Goat - one thing that helped me just before Xmas was to reset and actually go back to basics on what a market actually is. Remember - it's only a place where 2 parties exchange a product at a given price. What influences that price is simply supply and demand, and the same principle applies to pre-off horse racing trading.
There is a ton of amazing information on this thread, I actually learnt a huge amount following it myself, but as I went along I found myself trying to absorb too much of it. I genuinely believe that (for me anyway) the key to building a successful foundation in understanding a market is not trying to master everything, pick one thing and focus on it from every angle, and then branch out. I picked volume, and the influence of volume on prices across all participants in the market. A couple of key points that I wanted to investigate were:
1. What happens when the traded volume temporarily dries up on a given horse? How does this affect the price of the horse in question and the other runners?
2. What happens when the traded volume temporarily spikes on a given horse? How does this affect the price of the horse in question and the other runners?
3. What happens with both of the above but over a sustained period of time?
4. What level of traded volume is required to keep a horse at a given price? How does this affect the overall market? Do some horses at a given price require more traded volume than others to sustain their price levels?
Volume is obviously one element of a market, but it's a key element. After spending quite a long time studying the questions above, it felt like I had started to understand a small component of a market, and from there it allowed me to focus on some very focused setups that I'd look for in each market I'd come across. Everything else that could affect the market was just ignored, if an idea came to mind that wasn't related to the setup I was looking for it was just noted down for future investigation. After 4-5 weeks of implementing what I had studied, it's certainly looking like I'm heading in the right direction, and I'm starting to look a bit deeper into other areas. Why don't you try and go back to basics aswell? With everything you now know, studying the basics again may even trigger some ideas that you hadn't thought about.
Another point I wanted to mention was your focus on chasing an edge. Now that you're looking at automation, this is probably far less relevant, but remember an "edge" can come from a variety of things and that is not just limited to trade execution. You could have the most profitable strategy in the world but if you don't manage your engagement with said strategy then it's useless. For example, I genuinely believe that I understand Poker to a level where I could make some good money from the game, but I simply don't have the mindset for it. I've tried for years, I know the "edge" is there, but my execution of it always fails due to my inability to manage it properly. Don't fall into the trap of trying to chase an edge and forgetting that the key to being successful is more than just trying to find something in a market that may give you an advantage.
Best of luck - I'll continue to follow your journey!
Last edited by TLindeth on Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Thanks for the tips, you're right I need to "reset", i'm going to re-read some posts again, then think about what to focus on. Glad things are looking good for you.TLindeth wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:35 pmHey all,
First time poster here, but I've followed this thread throughout. I've been trading for the best part of a year now, and the last 4-5 weeks I've finally started to see my P&L move consistently in the right direction. I'm a novice by some of the standards set on the forum, but a novice which is spending a huge amount of time trying to understand what really happens in Betfair markets..
Goat - one thing that helped me just before Xmas was to reset and actually go back to basics on what a market actually is. Remember - it's only a place where 2 parties exchange a product at a given price. What influences that price is simply supply and demand, and the same principle applies to pre-off horse racing trading.
There is a ton of amazing information on this thread, I actually learnt a huge amount following it myself, but as I went along I found myself trying to absorb too much of it. I genuinely believe that (for me anyway) the key to building a successful foundation in understanding a market is not trying to master everything, pick one thing and focus on it from every angle, and then branch out. I picked volume, and the influence of volume on prices across all participants in the market. A couple of key points that I wanted to investigate were:
1. What happens when the traded volume temporarily dries up on a given horse? How does this affect the price of the horse in question and the other runners?
2. What happens when the traded volume temporarily spikes on a given horse? How does this affect the price of the horse in question and the other runners?
3. What happens with both of the above but over a sustained period of time?
4. What level of traded volume is required to keep a horse at a given price? How does this affect the overall market? Do some horses at a given price require more traded volume than others to sustain their price levels?
Volume is obviously one element of a market, but it's a key element. After spending quite a long time studying the questions above, it felt like I had started to understand a small component of a market, and from there it allowed me to focus on some very focused setups that I'd look for in each market I'd come across. Everything else that could affect the market was just ignored, if an idea came to mind that wasn't related to the setup I was looking for it was just noted down for future investigation. After 4-5 weeks of implementing what I had studied, it's certainly looking like I'm heading in the right direction, and I'm starting to look a bit deeper into other areas. Why don't you try and go back to basics aswell? With everything you now know, studying the basics again may even trigger some ideas that you hadn't thought about.
Another point I wanted to mention was your focus on chasing an edge. Now that you're looking at automation, this is probably far less relevant, but remember an "edge" can come from a variety of things and that is not just limited to trade execution. You could have the most profitable strategy in the world but if you don't manage your engagement with said strategy then it's useless. For example, I genuinely believe that I understand Poker to a level where I could make some good money from the game, but I simply don't have the mindset for it. I've tried for years, I know the "edge" is there, but my execution of it always fails due to my inability to manage it properly. Don't fall into the trap of trying to chase an edge and forgetting that the key to being successful is more than just trying to find something in a market that may give you an advantage.
Best of luck - I'll continue to follow your journey!
G
-
ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10470
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Why are you staking so big! Unless you're minted this is going to get expensive, a training day shouldn't really be costing you more than a fiver.
Are you using a fixed stake? If so it would be better to use a fixed payout/liability, price doesn't matter then and it pretty much equalises the £/tick across the whole ladder. eg Stake = RiskOrReward / (Price - 1). BA can do that for you via the staking options.
tbh I don't know if you've switched to straight betting, if so the ups and downs will be much greater and your stakes need to be much smaller than you'd use when you're hedging.