Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

Really messed up...
betPnL.jpg

Why are you staking so big! Unless you're minted this is going to get expensive, a training day shouldn't really be costing you more than a fiver.

Are you using a fixed stake? If so it would be better to use a fixed payout/liability, price doesn't matter then and it pretty much equalises the £/tick across the whole ladder. eg Stake = RiskOrReward / (Price - 1). BA can do that for you via the staking options.

tbh I don't know if you've switched to straight betting, if so the ups and downs will be much greater and your stakes need to be much smaller than you'd use when you're hedging.

£2 to £3 stakes, can't go any lower! It just seemed to Lay so many >7.0 winners!
Yes, based on yesterday's conversations and value betting, I switched to straight Back or Lay what I deemed value, I knew it would produce more variance, but not this.
I've just been following discussion's on Liam's Slack, and it's all way over my head, makes me think automation is just so very very advanced, which it obviously is.

[ShaunWhite]

£2 to £3 stakes, can't go any lower! It just seemed to Lay so many >7.0 winners!
Yes, based on yesterday's conversations and value betting, I switched to straight Back or Lay what I deemed value, I knew it would produce more variance, but not this.
I've just been following discussion's on Liam's Slack, and it's all way over my head, makes me think automation is just so very very advanced, which it obviously is.

You can go lower, £2 min is just via the website. I think I started on 20p.

I think you've said it yourself, info overload at the moment and you're not even sure what info applies to which technique. Pick one discipline and focus on that. If you keep switching almost every day and spending so much it's going to be a car crash. I get the feeling you're looking for something easy and none of it is. Do you even know if that was actually a good day,? Even winning strategies have losing days where the percentages just don't fall your way, but they always will over time.

I don't want to be too harsh goat68 but "what I deemed value" is something people work on for months and they stilll might not crack it, what gave you the impression you had a method that worked?

[goat68]

£2 to £3 stakes, can't go any lower! It just seemed to Lay so many >7.0 winners!
Yes, based on yesterday's conversations and value betting, I switched to straight Back or Lay what I deemed value, I knew it would produce more variance, but not this.
I've just been following discussion's on Liam's Slack, and it's all way over my head, makes me think automation is just so very very advanced, which it obviously is.

You can go lower, £2 min is just via the website. I think I started on 20p.

I think you've said it yourself, info overload at the moment and you're not even sure what info applies to which technique. Pick one discipline and focus on that. If you keep switching almost every day and spending so much it's going to be a car crash. I get the feeling you're looking for something easy and none of it is. Do you even know if that was actually a good day,? Even winning strategies have losing days where the percentages just don't fall your way, but they always will over time.

I don't want to be too harsh goat68 but "what I deemed value" is something people work on for months and they stilll might not crack it, what gave you the impression you had a method that worked?

God damn it, 20p really? I thought it was £2 as on website, what an idiot I am.
It all seems very hard, i'm not sure what would be the easier to concentrate on, everyone on here was talking about value....?
Feeling even more stupid now, I could have only been -£8.20 down today!

[The Silk Run]

Consider Shaun's advice G. Get your staking-down to a responsible level, 10p LIVE testing adequate

[goat68]

Consider Shaun's advice G. Get your staking-down to a responsible level, 10p LIVE testing adequate

Yes, great advice, I just assumed it was the same as the website..£2!.Does anyone know what the actual API min bet size is?

[ShaunWhite]

I've just been following discussion's on Liam's Slack,

Have you got a link to that? I just look at the free-for-all section.

[ShaunWhite]

Does anyone know what the actual API min bet size is?

£2 stake or £10 liability.
Lower stakes are achieved via the software placing the bet (+£2) out of range, amending it, and moving it. All TMI

But consdier when you hedge aka green up, that's sometimes for pennies so sub £2 is allowed via software.

[The Silk Run]

Consider Shaun's advice G. Get your staking-down to a responsible level, 10p LIVE testing adequate

Yes, great advice, I just assumed it was the same as the website..£2!.Does anyone know what the actual API min bet size is?

The minimum bet is £2.00. However, set your stake to 0.10p in the software where it will submit the order through a three-part process, automatically. It's good with pre markets, but a fraction of a delay in-play.

[goat68]

I've just been following discussion's on Liam's Slack,

Have you got a link to that? I just look at the free-for-all section.

You're already there Shaun, I just pinged you on Slack... when I said Liam, I was refering to Liam, Mo, Michael, discussions in #strategies...

[ShaunWhite]

You're already there Shaun, I just pinged you on Slack... when I said Liam, I was refering to Liam, Mo, Michael, discussions in #strategies...

ok, jeez good luck keeping pace with those 3.
Mo runs a syndicate operation as far as I know, did a lot of ML then dismissed it as hype.

[goat68]

You're already there Shaun, I just pinged you on Slack... when I said Liam, I was refering to Liam, Mo, Michael, discussions in #strategies...

ok, jeez good luck keeping pace with those 3.
Mo runs a syndicate operation as far as I know, did a lot of ML then dismissed it as hype.

Yeah, i've already realized they are on a different planet!!

[goat68]

So i'm extended my data analysis program and analysing the charts for patterns, just added selection volume bars. One thing I do notice is the volume profile for various races is actually quite different! Take these 2 both Hcaps, but volume more bunched in one, distributed in the other...
Top graph=Net Backing activity measure
Middle=Prices with VWAP
Bot=Selection volumes
Chelm 17:20 today:

market_ChelmC 4th Mar - 17_20 1m Hcap.jpg

Chelm 17:50 today:

market_ChelmC 4th Mar - 17_50 6f Hcap.jpg

[goat68]

My take on the 17:20:

EDIT.jpg

wrong on edit 3rd fav came in...
2nd fav was held up by VWAP ?
vertical time line is the 2min "jump" point

[goat68]

I'm going to do more of the above ^ until I workout something that works from the data...

[ShaunWhite]

I'm going to do more of the above ^ until I workout something that works from the data...

There's f-all money around at this time of year, esp midweek and esp on fairly rubbish racing. It only take a handful of people having a few grand to make the vol spikes. And when there's 1/2hr between races instead of the usual 10mins it doesn't arrive with as much regularity.

Take what you see as a guide maybe, and watch it tomorrow sitting on your hands. Patience plays big part in this, and not losing is easy compared to winning. You can wait for 3 or 4 setups a day and make good money. You seem to trade every race and although you see Peter and others do that they have various ways to suit various situations.