Trading What I see !?

[beermonsterman]

BIG Hitter ....
I'm mourning one of my automation strategies this evening. After serving me well for almost three years, today it took a hit for GBP 350. I will audit later and investigate what happened !!! I have read on occasions life expectancy average 2/3 years

RiP Big Hitter

[beermonsterman]

You will start too see it G its exactly what I do is find steamers if you look at the graph's I've put up of steamers you will see that most of them have been cut in price from the start of the day all the way to the off with little retrace and no big bounces they travel in very steady and confidently them are the most likely to continue as they have gathered momentum from early out and if the price of the other runners dont look a threat to the fav steaming you have confidence the trick to finding them is patience the perfect set up dont come round often but when it does its obvious and you will start too see how trading works .

You make an interesting point here Beer, in that my bot is looking at the market only from 30mins out, not the start of the day, you imply the morning move is significant, so I may have to have the bot working all morning...at least just catching the price moves

Are you manual or auto Beer?

Goat if you're going to try and implement this you'll first need to define.

"cut in price" (absolute/relative/odds/implied odds)
"start of the day" (abs or relative, ie 12:30 races vs 8pm races)
"little retrace" (see cut in price)
"travel in very steady and confidently"
"the price of the other runners dont look a threat"

And then work out if it's profitable by establishing what "most of them" is.

I'm assuming that Beer is a manual guy and therefore he's got all that lovely subjective info (and experience) to draw on whereas all you can do is make objective decisions. He also says the don't come up often, and as you know that going to make your evaluation of how it's performing really difficult. If you're going to be automated you need to remember what you can measure and how you can measure it (generically) and perhaps use automation's abilitity to work at larger scale so you get a larger set of meaningful results much faster.

I thought you were a developer G? if a customer gave you Beer's spec I think you'd send it back covered in red pen and "pls define" underlined.

(no critisism of your method Beer, just highlighting G's problem implementing it)

Yes I agree with Shaun in every thing he says here to automate what I have said is close to impossible I've tried believe me I have
Yes I do trade manually with plenty of patience FOMO is gone for me at last
All I did was set up automation with an alert to find steamers and eventually I started to see the big picture
Automation alert 3 hours before post with 25 tick move
Historic relative odds condition
last traded price now is less than the last traded price 10800 seconds ago minus 25 ticks
just an alert then look at that market its a good starting point but I do have lots of screen time under my belt so I may be misleading to newcomers

[beermonsterman]

Non Taken shaun I was happy to hear your thoughts on the subject

If only automation could come within 10% of what brains can do we'd be quids in. You say look for an early move and we spend a week trying to understand what 'move' and 'early' actually means. What we're lacking is that ability to just smell when a trade is on the cards.

If only Shaun
I wouldn't be slaving over fork lift trucks day in day out Its the dream we all look for one day I will crack it

[goat68]

Mmm, bot not doing well, seems markets tend to vary opinion every few mins, so what may appear to be being backed heavily one minute is not the next...so lots of small losses that out weigh the bigger wins...mmm?

[speedyhamster]

Mmm, bot not doing well, seems markets tend to vary opinion every few mins, so what may appear to be being backed heavily one minute is not the next...so lots of small losses that out weigh the bigger wins...mmm?

might in play be easier to automate? peters pace maps video
https://youtu.be/ROWhxLZgN2c

[goat68]

17 trades today:
13 losses
1 good win
3 small wins
more data analysis this evening, I know you get good days and bad days, just mine seem to be good day=17p, bad day=-£1.75 !!, so I need 10 good days in a row to beak even

[ShaunWhite]

Mmm, bot not doing well, seems markets tend to vary opinion every few mins, so what may appear to be being backed heavily one minute is not the next......mmm?

Are you just letting losses run? I'm not talking about fixed stoplosses because they make no sense, I'm talking about that continual cycle of reassessment & reaction, building and reducing your position. The danger is letting the market push you around of course but unless there's an element of re-evaluating your buy/hold/sell continually as the market develops then it's no more than a guess and shutting your eyes. Nobody can make reliable predictions that span minutes especially automating, manual guys might pick up on some soft signals that give them a bit more of a steer but they'll aways be prepared to change their opinion.

[goat68]

Mmm, bot not doing well, seems markets tend to vary opinion every few mins, so what may appear to be being backed heavily one minute is not the next......mmm?

Are you just letting losses run? I'm not talking about fixed stoplosses because they make no sense, I'm talking about that continual cycle of reassessment & reaction, building and reducing your position. The danger is letting the market push you around of course but unless there's an element of re-evaluating your buy/hold/sell continually as the market develops then it's no more than a guess and shutting your eyes. Nobody can make reliable predictions that span minutes especially automating, manual guys might pick up on some soft signals that give them a bit more of a steer but they'll aways be prepared to change their opinion.

So I have a continual assessment of change in opinion, at which point it closes, which has actually saved me from bigger losses. The assess-buy/sell-asses cycle is a bit tricky keeping to £2 stakes, so at the moment it has to be buy £2, assess sell £2, although to be honest I don't mind going for say up to 3 lots of £2 so £6 max stake. I'm going to re-assess, as I am still too much in the manual mindset of looking for a Steamer and holding to near the close, which really is not easily achieved with automation.
A lot of the advice on here is Manual based, which is fine, but Automation is a different beast....i'm getting there though ssslllowwwlllyyy.

[beermonsterman]

I went more aggressive today which made me take a trade in play which sometimes I do if planned I would usually cut early but let that run and I Know That will trigger me to go tilt
bit of a different mood today feel like is was digging my old pal up called GAMBLING
Need to reset or I will crumble again but no harm done YET

[goat68]

3hours of staring at graphs of recorded data, playing with WOM, my "will" is broken!
Peter's videos makes it all sound so easy, that's far from the truth. Cutting losers is very difficult if you can't find a pattern in the losers! and if that's the case it's probably because you're trading randomly.

[goat68]

I feel as though i'm looking at the wrong stuff, as the basics don't tell you much:
- Traded volume gives no indication of which way the price is going to go
- WOM gives no indication of which way...
- Price trend gives no indication of any future trend

[beermonsterman]

I feel as though i'm looking at the wrong stuff, as the basics don't tell you much:
- Traded volume gives no indication of which way the price is going to go
- WOM gives no indication of which way...
- Price trend gives no indication of any future trend

Even though I trade manually I still dont know what will happen but I have a good idea now from watching 1ks of markets over the years you develop a skill that cannot be learnt any other way It would seem to me G you are over complicating it by looking at everything but the ladders ?
Spend a week just studying the ladders and how they move and how the markets develop over the day that will tech you more in that time than you think then all that WOM and all the other signals will be of use to you then as you will know what to expect from certain set ups
Me personally do not look at WOM VWAP Volume or any kind of technical data because I can see all that in the ladders as and when its happening the only outside the ladder data I use is the BF graph's to see how steady the market is I dont even have pics on just plain cold trade
To wrap it up to automate an edge you first need to be able to trade manually to understand what rules you need for automation that's what I believe to be true anyway
My edge is being able to trade manually
I dont even know if you can call that an edge ?
If you was to ask me what my edge is I couldn't tell you as I dont know ?

Some food for thought their G

[wearthefoxhat]

I went more aggressive today which made me take a trade in play which sometimes I do if planned I would usually cut early but let that run and I Know That will trigger me to go tilt
bit of a different mood today feel like is was digging my old pal up called GAMBLING
Need to reset or I will crumble again but no harm done YET

Definitely reckon In-Play is a good way to go overall, but maybe not as a "get out" option if the Pre-trade is in the red. If there's a green carried forward, then this gives an option to create a free bet scenario and then look further to maximise the green IP, even to the point of "let it ride."

It still gives you the Gambly feeling, but is just an extension of the original green pre-trade.

Avoiding tilt is always a battle, especially with manual trades. I always refer to this article about poker tilt, and how to avoid it. Some nice stuff in there;

http://www.pokerology.com/lessons/dealing-with-tilt/

[beermonsterman]

I went more aggressive today which made me take a trade in play which sometimes I do if planned I would usually cut early but let that run and I Know That will trigger me to go tilt
bit of a different mood today feel like is was digging my old pal up called GAMBLING
Need to reset or I will crumble again but no harm done YET

Definitely reckon In-Play is a good way to go overall, but maybe not as a "get out" option if the Pre-trade is in the red. If there's a green carried forward, then this gives an option to create a free bet scenario and then look further to maximise the green IP, even to the point of "let it ride."

It still gives you the Gambly feeling, but is just an extension of the original green pre-trade.

Avoiding tilt is always a battle, especially with manual trades. I always refer to this article about poker tilt, and how to avoid it. Some nice stuff in there;

http://www.pokerology.com/lessons/dealing-with-tilt/

Cool nice one

[napshnap]

I feel as though i'm looking at the wrong stuff, as the basics don't tell you much:
...
- Price trend gives no indication of any future trend

Did you try to follow jamesg46 way to trade viewtopic.php?p=257051#p257051?