FOMO, so I lay'd it, Doh!
Cheltenham Festival 2021
I just noticed Smarkets has £6m+ traded already on the 13:20, Betfair only ~£5m. This is unusual right? Any idea why this is?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/h ... .180590039
https://smarkets.com/event/42116183/spo ... 3/16/13-20
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/h ... .180590039
https://smarkets.com/event/42116183/spo ... 3/16/13-20
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plasteredric
- Posts: 65
- Joined: Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:52 pm
They calculate their traded volume differentlyharry wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 1:05 pmI just noticed Smarkets has £6m+ traded already on the 13:20, Betfair only ~£5m. This is unusual right? Any idea why this is?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/h ... .180590039
https://smarkets.com/event/42116183/spo ... 3/16/13-20
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MAGTRADEUK
- Posts: 159
- Joined: Sun May 10, 2020 12:55 pm
1st Cheltenham smaller stakes and spent most of, if not all morning scratching trades. Need to get the "feel" for this kind of event.
I didn't realise that, thanks.plasteredric wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 1:06 pmThey calculate their traded volume differentlyharry wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 1:05 pmI just noticed Smarkets has £6m+ traded already on the 13:20, Betfair only ~£5m. This is unusual right? Any idea why this is?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/h ... .180590039
https://smarkets.com/event/42116183/spo ... 3/16/13-20
1.20 Cheltenham
Only 8 runners in the Supreme Novice Hurdle headed by likely fav Appreciate It 5/6 trained by Willie Mullins who has won the race 6 times , he is also top rated on my ratings 291 and is a worthy favourite. Expect him to be close to the pace and try to kick on a couple of furlongs out. From a stats point of view he is a 7yo and the last 12 winners of this race were all aged five or six (so might be a possible lay bet ?).
Ballyadam 6/1 is rated 249 and is highly regarded by his trainer Henry De Bromhead (formerly trained by Gordon Elliott) he is held on form by Appreciate It and might have preferred a larger field to be covered up as he likes to track the pace, something he probably won’t get in this race with only 8 runners.
Metier 6/1 rated 247 was a good middle distance performer on the Flat and has taken well to hurdling . He has ran from the front in the past and has also been held up (Tolworth Hurdle G1) when he beat Shakem Up’ Arry by 12 lengths in a fast time, and has the best speed figure in the race.
Blue Lord 11/1 rated 245 was beaten 6 lengths by Appreciate It and is also trained by Willie Mullins he is a 6yo like the majority of this field. He possesses a good turn of foot and has more to offer, his current price 11/1 is more appealing than that of the 5/6 fav Appreciate It (Place bet maybe ?)
Soaring Glory 13/1 is rated 244 looks like he needs to improve again if he is to win this his jumping can be a bit sketchy and in a fast run race and mistakes could be costly.
Purely from a stats view
• Last 12 Winners were aged 5 or 6 - ( Remove - Appreciate It is 7yo )
• Last 10 Winners all won last time out – (Remove - Ballyadam, Blue Lord, Irascible , For Pleasure,)
• Last 11 Winners had ran a minimum of 4 times ( Remove – Blue Lord (3) and Irascible (3)
• 7 /10 last ran less than 37 days ago (Remove – Metier (73 days)
That would leave Soaring Glory 13/1 and Grumpy Charley 40/1
Bets :- Blue Lord e/w @ 11/1 and Soaring Glory e/w 13/1
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1.55 Cheltenham
Another small field with only 6 Runners Shishkin rated 305 heads the Market as the 1/2 favourite far to skinny a price for me to get involved at. Allmankind is next best rated 294 and is a trailblazer and has tearaway tactics and has put up some impressive performances on the clock, there are not many 5yo who run in this but they do have a good record at 5/1 he rates a fair bet. Franco De Port rated 269 is trained by Willie Mullins make some appeal as he is a hold up horse in race full of pace horses and the race could be set up for a hold up style horse , however on likely soft ground it might be a big ask but at 12/1 he might run on into a place
Purely from a stats view
• Last 10 winners were aged 6 or 7 (Remove - Allmankind)
• 9/10 Won last time out (Remove – Franco De Port, Eldorado Allen, Captain Guiness,Numitor)
• 6/9 favs have won all at odds on (Keep – Shishkin)
On the stats and Ratings Shishkin is the selection but at odds on I wont be backing him but will back
Bets Allmankind 5/1 & Franco De Port 12/1
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2:30 Cheltenham
16 runners line up for the Ultima chase a class 1 over 3m 1f this will take some getting on soft ground. Irish horses don’t have a great winning record in this race not won since 2006 but they do place quite a bit, This is not a great race for favorite’s either only 2 have won since 1994 so that stat don’t bode well for the current market leader and our top rated horse 266 Happygolucky who has course experience and could run well but at 4/1 does not make much appeal. Alnadam trained by Dan Skelton is rated 243 along with Cepage also rated 243 and this former Pointer won well at Sandown last month he could run well but this might be step to far. Cepage on the other hand is a very smart chaser at his best and finished 7th in this race last year but I am not sure he will stay this trip on the likely soft ground. Aye Right is rated 240 and is very tough and should run into place for Richard Johnston , Pym 239 trained by Nicky Henderson has had his share of problems in the past pulling up a couple of times in soft/heavy ground last year and I am not convinced he is back to his best. The most interesting horse is One For The Team 232 who looks like he could have been laid out for this race having being brought along steadily over his last few races Nick Williams charge is lightly raced and could be a surprise package. The 11yo Ok Corral 223 won at Doncaster over 3m on good to soft ground last time out having made smooth headway he went on 2f out and stayed on well under pressure to lead just before the line at a price of 9/1 (he was Nicky Henderson’s second string that day) cannot be ruled out of a place at odds of around 22/1.
Bets :- One For The Team 8/1 & OK Corral 22/1
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3.00 Cheltenham
In a race won 8 times by Nicky Henderson (5 of the last 12) Epatante Rated 289 will be fancied to turn over the likely favourite Honeysuckle Rated 301 but only 4 out of the last 20 winners had not won last time out a stat which does not bode well for Epatante. Honeysuckle is unbeaten in 10 starts and receives the 7lb mares allowance along with Epatante and she might well win here 11th race but at around EV I wont be backing her. This race will probably be ran at a furious pace as we have no less than 7 pace horses in the race including Aspire Tower (10) and Not So Sleepy (10) along with a couple of other rated 8 or 9 so tactics will play a part. At the prices Abacadabras rated 251 and available at 12/1 looks tempting , prone to make the odd jumping error he was only beaten a head by Shishkin in the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham last year a race where he was held up and made smooth headway to challenge but was hampered , he led narrowly just before the last and was only headed on the line , similar tactics in a fast run race today could suit. James Du Berlais is the dark horse having been place in all his races in France at Listed or Graded level on Soft/Heavy ground he could be anything. The Gary Moore Trained Goshen also has a chance who Moore has always thought Goshen was something special he showed a glimmer of that last time out at Wincanton winning by an impressive 22 Lengths with his head in his chest in a good time. Can he win today possibly but rated 251 the same as Abacadabras but available at only 5/1 he has it to prove on my ratings.
Bets Abacadabras & .James Du Berlais Each Way.
Only 8 runners in the Supreme Novice Hurdle headed by likely fav Appreciate It 5/6 trained by Willie Mullins who has won the race 6 times , he is also top rated on my ratings 291 and is a worthy favourite. Expect him to be close to the pace and try to kick on a couple of furlongs out. From a stats point of view he is a 7yo and the last 12 winners of this race were all aged five or six (so might be a possible lay bet ?).
Ballyadam 6/1 is rated 249 and is highly regarded by his trainer Henry De Bromhead (formerly trained by Gordon Elliott) he is held on form by Appreciate It and might have preferred a larger field to be covered up as he likes to track the pace, something he probably won’t get in this race with only 8 runners.
Metier 6/1 rated 247 was a good middle distance performer on the Flat and has taken well to hurdling . He has ran from the front in the past and has also been held up (Tolworth Hurdle G1) when he beat Shakem Up’ Arry by 12 lengths in a fast time, and has the best speed figure in the race.
Blue Lord 11/1 rated 245 was beaten 6 lengths by Appreciate It and is also trained by Willie Mullins he is a 6yo like the majority of this field. He possesses a good turn of foot and has more to offer, his current price 11/1 is more appealing than that of the 5/6 fav Appreciate It (Place bet maybe ?)
Soaring Glory 13/1 is rated 244 looks like he needs to improve again if he is to win this his jumping can be a bit sketchy and in a fast run race and mistakes could be costly.
Purely from a stats view
• Last 12 Winners were aged 5 or 6 - ( Remove - Appreciate It is 7yo )
• Last 10 Winners all won last time out – (Remove - Ballyadam, Blue Lord, Irascible , For Pleasure,)
• Last 11 Winners had ran a minimum of 4 times ( Remove – Blue Lord (3) and Irascible (3)
• 7 /10 last ran less than 37 days ago (Remove – Metier (73 days)
That would leave Soaring Glory 13/1 and Grumpy Charley 40/1
Bets :- Blue Lord e/w @ 11/1 and Soaring Glory e/w 13/1
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1.55 Cheltenham
Another small field with only 6 Runners Shishkin rated 305 heads the Market as the 1/2 favourite far to skinny a price for me to get involved at. Allmankind is next best rated 294 and is a trailblazer and has tearaway tactics and has put up some impressive performances on the clock, there are not many 5yo who run in this but they do have a good record at 5/1 he rates a fair bet. Franco De Port rated 269 is trained by Willie Mullins make some appeal as he is a hold up horse in race full of pace horses and the race could be set up for a hold up style horse , however on likely soft ground it might be a big ask but at 12/1 he might run on into a place
Purely from a stats view
• Last 10 winners were aged 6 or 7 (Remove - Allmankind)
• 9/10 Won last time out (Remove – Franco De Port, Eldorado Allen, Captain Guiness,Numitor)
• 6/9 favs have won all at odds on (Keep – Shishkin)
On the stats and Ratings Shishkin is the selection but at odds on I wont be backing him but will back
Bets Allmankind 5/1 & Franco De Port 12/1
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2:30 Cheltenham
16 runners line up for the Ultima chase a class 1 over 3m 1f this will take some getting on soft ground. Irish horses don’t have a great winning record in this race not won since 2006 but they do place quite a bit, This is not a great race for favorite’s either only 2 have won since 1994 so that stat don’t bode well for the current market leader and our top rated horse 266 Happygolucky who has course experience and could run well but at 4/1 does not make much appeal. Alnadam trained by Dan Skelton is rated 243 along with Cepage also rated 243 and this former Pointer won well at Sandown last month he could run well but this might be step to far. Cepage on the other hand is a very smart chaser at his best and finished 7th in this race last year but I am not sure he will stay this trip on the likely soft ground. Aye Right is rated 240 and is very tough and should run into place for Richard Johnston , Pym 239 trained by Nicky Henderson has had his share of problems in the past pulling up a couple of times in soft/heavy ground last year and I am not convinced he is back to his best. The most interesting horse is One For The Team 232 who looks like he could have been laid out for this race having being brought along steadily over his last few races Nick Williams charge is lightly raced and could be a surprise package. The 11yo Ok Corral 223 won at Doncaster over 3m on good to soft ground last time out having made smooth headway he went on 2f out and stayed on well under pressure to lead just before the line at a price of 9/1 (he was Nicky Henderson’s second string that day) cannot be ruled out of a place at odds of around 22/1.
Bets :- One For The Team 8/1 & OK Corral 22/1
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3.00 Cheltenham
In a race won 8 times by Nicky Henderson (5 of the last 12) Epatante Rated 289 will be fancied to turn over the likely favourite Honeysuckle Rated 301 but only 4 out of the last 20 winners had not won last time out a stat which does not bode well for Epatante. Honeysuckle is unbeaten in 10 starts and receives the 7lb mares allowance along with Epatante and she might well win here 11th race but at around EV I wont be backing her. This race will probably be ran at a furious pace as we have no less than 7 pace horses in the race including Aspire Tower (10) and Not So Sleepy (10) along with a couple of other rated 8 or 9 so tactics will play a part. At the prices Abacadabras rated 251 and available at 12/1 looks tempting , prone to make the odd jumping error he was only beaten a head by Shishkin in the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham last year a race where he was held up and made smooth headway to challenge but was hampered , he led narrowly just before the last and was only headed on the line , similar tactics in a fast run race today could suit. James Du Berlais is the dark horse having been place in all his races in France at Listed or Graded level on Soft/Heavy ground he could be anything. The Gary Moore Trained Goshen also has a chance who Moore has always thought Goshen was something special he showed a glimmer of that last time out at Wincanton winning by an impressive 22 Lengths with his head in his chest in a good time. Can he win today possibly but rated 251 the same as Abacadabras but available at only 5/1 he has it to prove on my ratings.
Bets Abacadabras & .James Du Berlais Each Way.
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Trader Pat
- Posts: 4327
- Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm
Beautiful move on Metier, lovely start to the festival 
