Trading What I see !?
-
beermonsterman
- Posts: 538
- Joined: Sun Dec 25, 2016 2:47 pm
Just run it, backtest -62p, happy with that
-
beermonsterman
- Posts: 538
- Joined: Sun Dec 25, 2016 2:47 pm
-
ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10437
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
You shouldn't be measuring in pounds and pence. Use % of turnover ie pl/(sum back bets + sum lay liabilities). That - 64p might be an acceptable tweakable -5% or a miserable -90%. Return on investment (aka profit on turnover) also gives you a fairer comparison when you change stakes or vary your turnover from day to day.
-
ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10437
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
.... Btw RoI comparisons work for the same strategy, but obviously different strategies will have a different RoI, Eg scalping turns over far more than straight betting.
Thanks Shaun,ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 8:36 pmYou shouldn't be measuring in pounds and pence. Use % of turnover ie pl/(sum back bets + sum lay liabilities). That - 64p might be an acceptable tweakable -5% or a miserable -90%. Return on investment (aka profit on turnover) also gives you a fairer comparison when you change stakes or vary your turnover from day to day.
So, just to make sure i've got this right say a trade goes like this:
£2 back @ 3.0
£2.4 lay @2.5
Profit=£0.40
so %turnover= 0.40/(2+(2.4*1.5)) = 0.07 = 7%
?
-
ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10437
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
errr I think so
It's only relevent to you and what you're doing so as long as you stick to one way then that's all that matters, some might do just do PL/sum back stakes. It's just about having some measure that isn't dependant on stakes, #races or prices. And it does help you to compare days when you do 5 races and days when you do 25.
Early on I felt I did nothing but lose (and I did) but then I realised it was only about -1.2% one month, then -1% the next, then -0.8% and realised I was getting close to a +ve, otherwise I might have given it up because the cash amount wasn't getting much better.
(strictly speaking you made 39p...don't forget the commission)
So done some work and this is looking better, from 2weeks of back data:
Profit = 6.732569
Wins = 63
Avg Win = 0.37
Losses = 43
Avg Loss = -0.39
S/Rate = 59%
Total tr = 106
% turnOv = 0.46%
Wary of back fit given only 2weeks of data, and tweaking things back and forth shows a variance between %turnover of 0.2%->0.5%, which confirms that, but still it's positive !!
Profit = 6.732569
Wins = 63
Avg Win = 0.37
Losses = 43
Avg Loss = -0.39
S/Rate = 59%
Total tr = 106
% turnOv = 0.46%
Wary of back fit given only 2weeks of data, and tweaking things back and forth shows a variance between %turnover of 0.2%->0.5%, which confirms that, but still it's positive !!
So did quite a bit of backtesting last night and came up with the following, small %turnover, but reasonable throughput and happy as I can be it is not too fitted. Nice to be dealing with a +ev backtest for a change! Anyway, going to forward test with at least some confidence now and see how I do:
Profit = 3.99
Wins = 75
Avg Win = 0.26
Losses = 44
Avg Loss = -0.36
S/Rate = 63%
Total tr = 119
% turnOv = 0.23%
Profit = 3.99
Wins = 75
Avg Win = 0.26
Losses = 44
Avg Loss = -0.36
S/Rate = 63%
Total tr = 119
% turnOv = 0.23%
goat68 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 20, 2021 9:12 amSo did quite a bit of backtesting last night and came up with the following, small %turnover, but reasonable throughput and happy as I can be it is not too fitted. Nice to be dealing with a +ev backtest for a change! Anyway, going to forward test with at least some confidence now and see how I do:
Profit = 3.99
Wins = 75
Avg Win = 0.26
Losses = 44
Avg Loss = -0.36
S/Rate = 63%
Total tr = 119
% turnOv = 0.23%
How's your progress, Goat?
hi, so I am now running with my new backtested strategy, and seeing how it progresses, I will give an update end of week. It has a %turnover of about 0.4%, which is not great, but I don't think I can squeeze much more out of it. Backtesting also shows quite a variance over 2 weeks, some good days, same poor days, so for example yesterday it was poor, but my testing tells me that's just the variance... Interesting, it seems to perform wonderfully on Saturdays according to the backtest, by quite a considerable margin.napshnap wrote: ↑Tue Mar 23, 2021 10:05 amgoat68 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 20, 2021 9:12 amSo did quite a bit of backtesting last night and came up with the following, small %turnover, but reasonable throughput and happy as I can be it is not too fitted. Nice to be dealing with a +ev backtest for a change! Anyway, going to forward test with at least some confidence now and see how I do:
Profit = 3.99
Wins = 75
Avg Win = 0.26
Losses = 44
Avg Loss = -0.36
S/Rate = 63%
Total tr = 119
% turnOv = 0.23%
How's your progress, Goat?
-
wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3554
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
Maybe the class of race could be a factor?goat68 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 23, 2021 10:44 amhi, so I am now running with my new backtested strategy, and seeing how it progresses, I will give an update end of week. It has a %turnover of about 0.4%, which is not great, but I don't think I can squeeze much more out of it. Backtesting also shows quite a variance over 2 weeks, some good days, same poor days, so for example yesterday it was poor, but my testing tells me that's just the variance... Interesting, it seems to perform wonderfully on Saturdays according to the backtest, by quite a considerable margin.napshnap wrote: ↑Tue Mar 23, 2021 10:05 amgoat68 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 20, 2021 9:12 amSo did quite a bit of backtesting last night and came up with the following, small %turnover, but reasonable throughput and happy as I can be it is not too fitted. Nice to be dealing with a +ev backtest for a change! Anyway, going to forward test with at least some confidence now and see how I do:
Profit = 3.99
Wins = 75
Avg Win = 0.26
Losses = 44
Avg Loss = -0.36
S/Rate = 63%
Total tr = 119
% turnOv = 0.23%
How's your progress, Goat?
-
ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10437
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
You say an RoI of 0.4% isn't great but believe me it is.
And whatever +ve it is remember that profit = edge * opportunity * stake, so don't excessively filter to increase the edge. If anything accept a smaller edge if that means you can turnover more, get larger sets of results faster and improve resilience.
And whatever +ve it is remember that profit = edge * opportunity * stake, so don't excessively filter to increase the edge. If anything accept a smaller edge if that means you can turnover more, get larger sets of results faster and improve resilience.