Trading What I see !?

[Emmson]

I note the 25p staking, if you do that all day every day is that legitimate and will not fall foul of any minimum bet abuse nonsense from betfair? Do those rules not apply when using trading software?

Anyways good stuff Goat!

[goat68]

I note the 25p staking, if you do that all day every day is that legitimate and will not fall foul of any minimum bet abuse nonsense from betfair? Do those rules not apply when using trading software?

Anyways good stuff Goat!

My stake was £4.50, the 25p was the Guardian greenup rule trying to balance things up

[goat68]

What i actually think Guardian did, was if you look at the log msgs for 15:50, i think they are in reverse chrono order, as the error for the cancel must have been after issuing the cancel msg, so that probably means Guardian actually did it in the following order:
Place new greenup order
Cancel previous order
(Get error on cancel)

Ive seen this msg order seemingly in reverse before

[goat68]

bot seems to be hitting about a 70% loss rate today, seems to be the theme at the moment, just a few biggish wins keeping me roughly afloat....
following today's horses racing thread seems to be thoughts markets are a bit weak at the moment, maybe why bot performing poorly

[goat68]

my concern is with these lull periods, if that is what it is, it deteriates the edge, what was a 0.5% edge, looking like 0.3% now, if it gets any worse it becomes not worth the risk. Pre-race UK horses can only be scaled so much, my reckoning maybe up to £300 liability max without affecting market too much on average. So that is about 16 times my current bet size, so rather than make what backtest shows as about £20 a month on my min bets, that would scale to about £300, hmm that's not too bad actually now looking at it. Maybe I should dump a grand in my account and give it a go!

[The Silk Run]

You may recall I mentioned some time ago that Saturday's can be rather precarious due to recreational gamblers and their effect on the exchanges !!!

[goat68]

You may recall I mentioned some time ago that Saturday's can be rather precarious due to recreational gamblers and their effect on the exchanges !!!

I think I do, yet Peter on the other hand states Saturday as the main day.... I guess it depends on what you're doing in the market..

[goat68]

So only -33p down today in the end, so not all that bad.
And a positive week up £3.10

[goat68]

Rsquared deteriorated a bit from current stall of trend.
Note this is backtest chart, "live" of this strategy is just the last 2 weeks, the flat bit!

trend.jpg

[goat68]

I'm not running the live strategy on sunday's now, as I don't think it fits the weak sunday races. However, I am running it tomorrow with updated greenup rules as a live test.

[goat68]

So "live" test of new hedge'ing looked good. And bot made a small loss today, as expected, it's a sunday, but 54p to live test a new change is a bargain
So i've reviewed my scaling bot logic, and I am happy with it, so put these together and what does it mean? Scaling Time!!
Deposited another £400, so £500 bank now, and I am scaling x10 from my min bets.
Fingers crossed!

[goat68]

for all you stats lovers out there, here's my latest full dataset backtest using x10 liability:
==> Worst day = -48.85
==> Best day = 57.53
==> Winning days = 29
==> Losing days = 12
Mon : 109.04
Tue : -3.78
Wed : 109.60
Thr : 77.24
Fri : 85.71
Sat : 71.49

Profit = 449.30
Wins = 236
Avg Win = 5.48
Losses = 176
Avg Loss = -4.80
S/Rate = 57%
Total trades = 412 from 1806 analysed markets
% turnOv = 0.45%
% comm to profit = 5.9%
Low liquidity market trades = 16
Offered trades = 564

Not sure why Tuesday's seem bad, i'm currently thinking just "variance", but keeping an eye on that one...

[goat68]

fyi:
Tuesdays:
2021/03/09 : Tue : -30.65
2021/03/23 : Tue : -1.46
2021/03/30 : Tue : 26.56
2021/04/06 : Tue : -22.27
2021/04/13 : Tue : 2.14
2021/04/20 : Tue : 21.89

[Tetras]

My memory isn't great, but I think I remember there being some weak Tuesdays and relatively strong Mondays over the last few months.

[goat68]

My memory isn't great, but I think I remember there being some weak Tuesdays and relatively strong Mondays over the last few months.

Yeah, I think you're right. I'm not sure it's a regular thing, but given my dataset is basically March, April, you're looking at post-Cheltenham effect, Easter, ... Tuesday's are not strong for sure, but i'm hoping on average my bot should get something from them. Will be looking to see Tuesdays rebound, or they'll be for the chop!!