Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

As a comparison, Mondays!
2021/03/08 : Mon : 17.70
2021/03/22 : Mon : 38.01
2021/03/29 : Mon : 23.76
2021/04/05 : Mon : 8.45
2021/04/12 : Mon : 28.67
2021/04/19 : Mon : -7.56

[ShaunWhite]

My memory isn't great, but I think I remember there being some weak Tuesdays and relatively strong Mondays over the last few months.

Yeah, I think you're right. I'm not sure it's a regular thing, but given my dataset is basically March, April, you're looking at post-Cheltenham effect, Easter, ... Tuesday's are not strong for sure, but i'm hoping on average my bot should get something from them. Will be looking to see Tuesdays rebound, or they'll be for the chop!!

The performance of specific days isn't the day itself it's the type of races (shape, class, volume, prize money etc) on those days, find the common link and you could probably trade some races on those days and possibly remove those unsuitable races from other days too. . That's another danger when you're not especially familiar with racing, you look at whatever name has been given to a certain day and blame that rather than knowing why the races might be different. Take the example of midweek festival racing vs the usual midweek fare. You wouldn't miss a Cheltenham Wednesday because Wednesdays aren't usually great.

And even days that possibly show a small loss and definatly those that breakeven should be traded. You're trying to avoid PC unless you want to lose 20% of your edge so you need all the opportunities you can to generate commission even if there's no net gain.

[Anbell]

Will be looking to see Tuesdays rebound, or they'll be for the chop!!

I reckon if you find a category (eg Tuesday) that's not working, you're best to reduce your stakes there to cut the losses, but also stay in the market for a while till you get more data and see if it improves.

[goat68]

My memory isn't great, but I think I remember there being some weak Tuesdays and relatively strong Mondays over the last few months.

Yeah, I think you're right. I'm not sure it's a regular thing, but given my dataset is basically March, April, you're looking at post-Cheltenham effect, Easter, ... Tuesday's are not strong for sure, but i'm hoping on average my bot should get something from them. Will be looking to see Tuesdays rebound, or they'll be for the chop!!

The performance of specific days isn't the day itself it's the type of races (shape, class, volume, prize money etc) on those days, find the common link and you could probably trade some races on those days and possibly remove those unsuitable races from other days too. . That's another danger when you're not especially familiar with racing, you look at whatever name has been given to a certain day and blame that rather than knowing why the races might be different. Take the example of midweek festival racing vs the usual midweek fare. You wouldn't miss a Cheltenham Wednesday because Wednesdays aren't usually great.

And even days that possibly show a small loss and definatly those that breakeven should be traded. You're trying to avoid PC unless you want to lose 20% of your edge so you need all the opportunities you can to generate commission even if there's no net gain.

You make a good point, Tuesday is currently breakeven, thus a great PC avoidance commission generator!

[napshnap]

Great to see you're progressing, Goat.
I wonder if my advice to use VWAP was helpful or you came up with something different??

[goat68]

Great to see you're progressing, Goat.
I wonder if my advice to use VWAP was helpful or you came up with something different??

Hi, thanks. Vwap is part of it, but as Peter's videos state you have to use it in the right markets, selections, conditions... my bot has grown to be rather complex!!

[goat68]

Just one more note, im moving forwards yes, but still no firm indication this bot is going to be profitable... Rsquared on backtest trend only 0.85 currently.

[wearthefoxhat]

In case you didn't know...

goat.png

[goat68]

So first day of 10x bet scaling (£200 back&lay liability), and -46p loss today, a decent commission churner, so nothing to write home about! However, more importantly I was happy with bot's operation at higher stakes.
Tomorrow's the dreaded Tuesday Let's see what bot does, here's hoping it bucks the trend.

[goat68]

I spent some time reading my first few pages of my thread again, wow how things have changed, it's interesting how the mind evolves...

[joelyboy94]

I'm (dabbling, out of lockdown boredom) in automation and wondered what sort of criteria your bot uses to make decisions? The same kind of indicators used in advanced charting etc on BetAngel? Not asking to get your entire strategy just curious

[ShaunWhite]

So first day of 10x bet scaling (£200 back&lay liability), and -46p loss today, a decent commission churner, so nothing to write home about! However, more importantly I was happy with bot's operation at higher stakes.

x10 is a bold move and personally I think you're crazy to stake at that level based on the results you've had. I'd let it scale organically using profits and if it goes t*ts up then you've lost nothing or very little. But you know how much you want to invest in this idea and perhaps I just need a higher quantum of evidence because success or failure matters more. The positive though is that you're not playing with scared money because nobody wins when they're afraid of losing. All the best, maybe you have got lucky with your first idea, it's going to be fun finding out anyway.

[ShaunWhite]

I spent some time reading my first few pages of my thread again, wow how things have changed, it's interesting how the mind evolves...

Watch out for the Dunning Kruger effect. You'll be looking back on these recent posts with similar feelings in a year's time.

Screenshot_5.png

[Kai]

Love that Shaun.



I love this term as well, the peak of "Mount Stupid", holy crap do I remember that one. It's almost too embarrassing to talk about

I think it was like a month or two into my trading journey when I started to get some LTD results rolling in on football, knew little else and wasn't aware of any other traders either, but that's when I genuinely thought that I already knew everything about trading. That was my "Mount Stupid" alright.

Few months later my LTD stats ran out when season ended and once I pulled my head out of the sand (and arse) I realized that I knew absolutely nothing, although I did well to climb out of the "Valley of Despair" shortly after.

I guess the "Slope of Enlightenment" came in the following year shortly after my 1st forum post on here, I was already moving in the right directions and paying PC beforehand, I'm not really the type to ask for help, but did need a bit of guidance on where to go from there, so left the forum for a few years to pursue that.

Just goes to show it really is like these graphs suggest, that journey is very much real.

[rik]

stats looking improved, why up x10?
Depends on the betting style but easy to underestimate how much impact stake size has on an edge