Hi All
I just backed the draw in the old firm game at half time knowing it would hit evens around the hour mark.
When it did I could close the trade for a guaranteed profit of £25 (half my stake) but if the green option was checked I had a guaranteed profit of £16.50
Most of the stuff I have read recommends you 'green up' but what is the benefit if I can make more by closing the trade?
Thanks in advance
Close Trade Or Green Up?
Always do the opposite if it go,s pear shape Red up, you know what you lose whatever the out comeEuler wrote:If you back at 3.00 for £100 and then trade out at 2.00 for £100 you would have a £100 profit on the draw. But only if the draw happens.
If you green up then the £100 is divided by 2.00 and you have £50 whatever happens.
Thanks for explaining it so well, seems I had a lucky escape!
I am now struggling to picture a scenario where trading out would be used instead of greening up.
If the bet looks to be going your way for sure, why bail out and cut your profits?
Light bulb just came on, I imagine its for when your bet is going against you so you can cut your losses.
I am now struggling to picture a scenario where trading out would be used instead of greening up.
If the bet looks to be going your way for sure, why bail out and cut your profits?
Light bulb just came on, I imagine its for when your bet is going against you so you can cut your losses.
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Ady
I find the easiest way to explain this is as follows.
We all expect the market to be accurate. We know there will be small errors but over a given period of time it will be accurate.
If you had £100 profit on a result only IF that result came in and the odds are 2.00 then you have two choices.
1. Hope the result comes in and win £100
2. Green up and take a guaranteed £50
If you think about the above statement about the market being accurate then it won't make too much difference what you do PROVIDED you think long term.
If the result comes in then you win £100 this time. The next time you have a similar position it may not come on so you win zero. By definition the result should come in 50% of the time so over two events you win £100 if you let the position ride.
If you green up then you are guaranteed to win £50 on each event which is £100 in total!
Admittedly you may get two losers if you let it ride using such a small sample but after 100 events it will start to balance. The downside is the stress attached to the result which can cause you to make poor decisions during trading and increase your losses.
Hope that helps
JG
I find the easiest way to explain this is as follows.
We all expect the market to be accurate. We know there will be small errors but over a given period of time it will be accurate.
If you had £100 profit on a result only IF that result came in and the odds are 2.00 then you have two choices.
1. Hope the result comes in and win £100
2. Green up and take a guaranteed £50
If you think about the above statement about the market being accurate then it won't make too much difference what you do PROVIDED you think long term.
If the result comes in then you win £100 this time. The next time you have a similar position it may not come on so you win zero. By definition the result should come in 50% of the time so over two events you win £100 if you let the position ride.
If you green up then you are guaranteed to win £50 on each event which is £100 in total!
Admittedly you may get two losers if you let it ride using such a small sample but after 100 events it will start to balance. The downside is the stress attached to the result which can cause you to make poor decisions during trading and increase your losses.
Hope that helps
JG
Ady, this blog post by Peter might help to enlighten you further: http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2011/03 ... -green-up/.
I recommend you take a look.
- Josh.
I recommend you take a look.
- Josh.
As a very new newbie can I also add a point here?
I understand fully the idea of greening up to ensure a winning trade. However, in my example I am backing a horse which I am confident will win the race.
I trade it succesfully pre race and with a minute or so to go have the option to green up across the field to guarantee a profit.
Do I have the option of greening up 'in play', possibly with only a furlong to run to take this profit?
In option 2 could I green up, still pre race, to take a profit and then because I am confident of a win place a back order with no counter lay bet and still take the greened up profit if it fails to win or the matched back bet for a bigger win? Am I expecting the best of both worlds?
Option 3. Can I trade to a position where I am guaranteed the greened up profit but have not yet greened up but then add a small back trade which still guarantees a greened up profit but would also offer a tidy winning horse profit? However, if I see during the race that my sure thing win is, as usual going to loose, then I green up (maybe for a smaller profit than would have been gained had I not added the final back bet) just before the market is suspended.
Are any or all of these possible?
I understand fully the idea of greening up to ensure a winning trade. However, in my example I am backing a horse which I am confident will win the race.
I trade it succesfully pre race and with a minute or so to go have the option to green up across the field to guarantee a profit.
Do I have the option of greening up 'in play', possibly with only a furlong to run to take this profit?
In option 2 could I green up, still pre race, to take a profit and then because I am confident of a win place a back order with no counter lay bet and still take the greened up profit if it fails to win or the matched back bet for a bigger win? Am I expecting the best of both worlds?
Option 3. Can I trade to a position where I am guaranteed the greened up profit but have not yet greened up but then add a small back trade which still guarantees a greened up profit but would also offer a tidy winning horse profit? However, if I see during the race that my sure thing win is, as usual going to loose, then I green up (maybe for a smaller profit than would have been gained had I not added the final back bet) just before the market is suspended.
Are any or all of these possible?
Its just easier to Green up IMHO, when you trade even for a winning position you are taking a gamble the only difference is you will not lose anything by this gamble, or whats even worse for all the hard mental thought process you put in to get that position you will walk away with nothing. Green up 10 events and you will see what an inpact it has on your bank, after all trading is about a win win situation a full cup not halfGarmischP wrote:As a very new newbie can I also add a point here?
I understand fully the idea of greening up to ensure a winning trade. However, in my example I am backing a horse which I am confident will win the race.
I trade it succesfully pre race and with a minute or so to go have the option to green up across the field to guarantee a profit.
Do I have the option of greening up 'in play', possibly with only a furlong to run to take this profit?
In option 2 could I green up, still pre race, to take a profit and then because I am confident of a win place a back order with no counter lay bet and still take the greened up profit if it fails to win or the matched back bet for a bigger win? Am I expecting the best of both worlds?
Option 3. Can I trade to a position where I am guaranteed the greened up profit but have not yet greened up but then add a small back trade which still guarantees a greened up profit but would also offer a tidy winning horse profit? However, if I see during the race that my sure thing win is, as usual going to loose, then I green up (maybe for a smaller profit than would have been gained had I not added the final back bet) just before the market is suspended.
Are any or all of these possible?
