Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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goat68
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Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

rik wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 7:34 am
stats looking improved, why up x10?
Depends on the betting style but easy to underestimate how much impact stake size has on an edge
Risk..
Also ive been analysing liquidity, and have some logic in the bot...
However could be in the valley of the stupid !!
It's Tuesday and could be facing a -£30 loss in the face tonight, egg on...
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napshnap
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Hmm, I don't think I ever was in "Valley of despair", I see my Way as continuous "Slope of enlightenment". I guess that's because I always have a few profitable strategies.
... or maybe I've memory problems :mrgreen: .
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Morbius
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:56 am
goat68 wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 9:27 pm
I spent some time reading my first few pages of my thread again, wow how things have changed, it's interesting how the mind evolves...
Watch out for the Dunning Kruger effect. You'll be looking back on these recent posts with similar feelings in a year's time.
Screenshot_5.png

Good Post... The DK effect or alternate descriptions of it has been known for decades as its difficult to know what you don't know especially in fields where self education is the primary method of advancement. However in my experience the early peak and trough of silly over enthusiasm followed by an over reaction of hopelessness can be flattened substantially or totally circumvented but it takes time and applied research coupled with correct networking.

If in whatever subject you are studying you don't understand the terminology then this should be a red flag that you don't know enough and to study more. The valley of despair stage is tough to come back from mentally and the overwhelming majority fail here. The trick is not to be in stages one and two at all. But the overzealousness to be involved causes this. The markets will still be here... Take another year... Two years... So what.

You may stumble on something in the early stages but the odds are stacked against you. There's a reason so few people succeed and this is it. You wouldn't become a doctor if after six months you just said... I've been at this six months I need to be fiddling about with real people now :D
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ShaunWhite
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The DK effect is why I've got box full of random screws and scrap electrical components. I've got a mutilmeter and a soldering iron, how hard can it be to fix an amp/printer/TV. Well it's a piece of cake until about a minute after you take the back off it. And then when you've failed you strip it down for parts as if one day they might be useful. :roll: Ditto folders full of spreadsheets.
Last edited by ShaunWhite on Tue Apr 27, 2021 10:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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goat68
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So couldn't understand why bot only entered 1 trade today, backtest on today's data showed 10 and net profit...
A bit of investigation... and a very minor change I did broke my conditions. I didn't realise that "Clearing a Signal", is not the same as setting it to 0, so my condition "if signal value < 5" didn't trigger when it was cleared (thinking it would be 0 !), DOH!
Anyway fixed... onwards and upwards...!
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ShaunWhite
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goat68 wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 10:45 pm
So couldn't understand why bot only entered 1 trade today, backtest on today's data showed 10 and net profit...
A bit of investigation... and a very minor change I did broke my conditions. I didn't realise that "Clearing a Signal", is not the same as setting it to 0, so my condition "if signal value < 5" didn't trigger when it was cleared (thinking it would be 0 !), DOH!
Anyway fixed... onwards and upwards...!
Even if you got away with it, running untested code in live is a cardinal sin. I'm afraid we'll have to escort you out of the buillding immediately and a colleague will clear your desk and leave your belongings in reception. ;)
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goat68
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 11:01 pm
goat68 wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 10:45 pm
So couldn't understand why bot only entered 1 trade today, backtest on today's data showed 10 and net profit...
A bit of investigation... and a very minor change I did broke my conditions. I didn't realise that "Clearing a Signal", is not the same as setting it to 0, so my condition "if signal value < 5" didn't trigger when it was cleared (thinking it would be 0 !), DOH!
Anyway fixed... onwards and upwards...!
Even if you got away with it, running untested code in live is a cardinal sin. I'm afraid we'll have to escort you out of the buillding immediately and a colleague will clear your desk and leave your belongings in reception. ;)
Haha! I prefer to run on live min stakes, dont trust practice mode, paranoid betfair will close me down!
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firlandsfarm
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goat68 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:23 pm
I follow Pete's videos to the letter, trying to trade order flow momentum, that I SEE. I see "backing", so I jump in, it then consistently goes the other way..... I feel I should trade the opposite of what I see!?
When you posted that did you think 222 pages later it would still be going strong? :o With your tenacity and determination to succeed I'm sure you will ... as Churchill would say "Keep Buggering On".

BTW I share your 'distrust' for the practice mode, as some constantly remind us practice mode can never fully reflect the live market because once you switch from practice to live you change the live market! In-Running is especially sensitive ... I will test new code in the live market for below minimum stakes, maybe just 10p for the first run then up it to £1 when all seems OK and finally go for live stakes. I don't fear breaking the minimum bet rules for just a few bets and will always be in attendance when running new code for the first time.
michaelhud1
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Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:40 am

goat68 wrote:
Sat Apr 24, 2021 9:45 pm
Rsquared deteriorated a bit from current stall of trend.
Note this is backtest chart, "live" of this strategy is just the last 2 weeks, the flat bit!
trend.jpg
is the consensus dont increase stake until r2 nearer 1 then?
i believe ive come across my first profitable strategy projected £60 net profit from 1000 markets but r2 very low, i was getting excited but after comparing with your results (much better than mine) maybe i am clser to mount stupid :)

(edit:i undertsand the closer to 1 to more confidence but my brain see over .75 as confirmation?)
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goat68
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michaelhud1 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:06 am
goat68 wrote:
Sat Apr 24, 2021 9:45 pm
Rsquared deteriorated a bit from current stall of trend.
Note this is backtest chart, "live" of this strategy is just the last 2 weeks, the flat bit!
trend.jpg
is the consensus dont increase stake until r2 nearer 1 then?
i believe ive come across my first profitable strategy projected £60 net profit from 1000 markets but r2 very low, i was getting excited but after comparing with your results (much better than mine) maybe i am clser to mount stupid :)

(edit:i undertsand the closer to 1 to more confidence but my brain see over .75 as confirmation?)
Hi, so I think for trend analysis R2 of >0.95 is the typical mark of a good trend, something near that would satisfy me.
fyi, and others, i'm increasing stakes not on the full expectancy that this bot is profitable, but as a medium-term test of various "scaling" alterations I have done to the bot, including "liquidity evaluation", "over staking check", all based on my own thoughts and opinion, hence needs a bit of a live test. If it costs me half the price of my weekly supermarket shop then i'm happy with that !!
michaelhud1
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Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:40 am

Thank you, would you advise against someone increasing stakes, expectancy of a profitable bot solely based on R2?
I intended to keep a record and whenever achieved enough data points so that R2 >0.75 "start again" with double stake ( as long as my bank could cope with doubling)
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ShaunWhite
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goat68 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:39 am
Hi, so I think for trend analysis R2 of >0.95 is the typical mark of a good trend, something near that would satisfy me.
I suggested using r-squared purely as a guide. And what's an acceptable value depends on how the strategy behaves. A hgh strike rate would show a high correlation to trend and something with a low strike rate would'nt be correleated so closely. I definately wouldn't use that on it's own to make any decisions.
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ShaunWhite
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Scaling:
Forget doubling or x10, let it grow slowely using prior profits. Even nudging it up by 10% every couple of weeks would be reasonable. Most promising strategies will end up being ananomalies that are going to revert and the last thing you want is to have small stakes when it's working and x10 just as it's about to fail.

There's no rush, if it's going to make money it will and you won't make anymore from it long term by being greedy and ramping up stakes too fast.
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ShaunWhite
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firlandsfarm wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:31 am
BTW I share your 'distrust' for the practice mode, as some constantly remind us practice mode can never fully reflect the live market because once you switch from practice to live you change the live market! In-Running is especially sensitive ... I will test new code in the live market for below minimum stakes, maybe just 10p for the first run then up it to £1 when all seems OK and finally go for live stakes.
Yep PM is purely to test it functions correctly, not to see if it's profitable or not. And sub £2 in-running bets are going to take twice as long to hit the market anyway so won't mean much.

You'll know this Firlands but I guess it's worth mentioining again to only have a small amount in your main wallet when you do it.
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ShaunWhite
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goat68 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:39 am
i'm increasing stakes not on the full expectancy that this bot is profitable, but as a medium-term test of various "scaling" alterations I have done to the bot, including "liquidity evaluation", "over staking check", all based on my own thoughts and opinion, hence needs a bit of a live test. If it costs me half the price of my weekly supermarket shop then i'm happy with that !!
I don't know how big your shop is but by the time you start to affect a pre-race horse market with one fairly long duration bet you'll probably be staking in the thouands. HFT trading a pretty size sensitive but your method of using one bet to open and one bet to get out, several minutes apart, are much much less sensitve. Be careful not to just oscillate between steps 1 and 3 on your 'journey'.

That's about 4 comments now I think, tea break over. all the best.
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