Today's Football

[greenmark]

It must be quite embarrassing holding up a football match to eat a banana.

Hey, in a sporting context, don't diss the banana. They are brilliant sources of slow sugar.
If the guy needed energy after sundown, then a banana is just about perfect.

[footysystems]

WTF is the ref doing sending off a Saints player in less than ten minutes. Completely ruined the game no sense of judgement.

Seen nothing like it the game is going down the drain

[Pjhaynes2]

Anyone have any idea why Lpool are favourites today? It amazes me how short their price is in every game based on last seasons form, not their current form. I've made so much money laying them this year, its crazy.

[Morbius]

Anyone have any idea why Lpool are favourites today? It amazes me how short their price is in every game based on last seasons form, not their current form. I've made so much money laying them this year, its crazy.

That may be a reaction to advanced team news and OGS resting players ahead of Thursdays game in Rome and last Thursdays game. It's always tough to play on Sunday after Thursday anyway so the market will react to that too.

Olly would be making a big mistake resting too many players on Thursday. They are on a hiding to nothing with a 6-2 lead and iirc Liverpool were 5-0 up against Roma in the 2018 CL semi and only won 7-6 on agg. Two quick early Roma goals and they could easily be in trouble if their strikers have an off night because they looked ropey at the back on Thursday.

The EL for MU is now more important because top 4 seems locked up. United want to end that run of 4 years without a trophy. With no home crowd then Liverpool should start favourites really and the home/draw/away odds look right to me

[Pjhaynes2]

Hi Morbius,
Yeah, that all makes pretty good sense.
I have found recently though (this season) that the most important thing is current form. Utd's is obviously much better as is their confidence level. I don't think personally that the importance of the game will be any less to Utd as beating their arch rivals is always as/more important than winning any cup.
That being said, Lpool will want to beat Utd just as much so it will certainly be interesting whichever way it goes!

[Trader Pat]

I think Golum would relish the chance of effectively ending Liverpool's chances of finishing in the Top 4

[Kai]

Looking forward to the big match today!

I have fully recovered from the Newcastle and Leeds setbacks and I'm ready to get hurt again.

[Morbius]

I think Golum would relish the chance of effectively ending Liverpool's chances of finishing in the Top 4

Hi Pat... That's right he would but as a manager it's all about balancing risk and reward. The reward in this instance is trivial but a EL exit on Thursday would linger very long in the memory from a 6-2 lead. He would be a poor manager IMO if he put too much into todays game. Also irrespective of what he does it would affect the energy levels in the second half anyway so soon after Thursday unless he made numerous changes. Plus Liverpool have a big incentive in this game to get top four so in terms of motivation they are ahead of united here. And more away teams have won this season anyway as a result of no crowd advantage. My pricing on this game was basically the same as the market

[Morbius]

Arsenal around evens are too short for me. They have little incentive in this game ahead of Villareal on Thursday and after travelling to Spain less than three days ago. They can't make top four and Arteta may need the EL to save his job. So expect a weakened side or a reduced performance and this is the stand out value today.

Depending on the weighting of a few metrics Arsenal should be circa 6/4 to 7/4 here

[Morbius]

Hi Morbius,
Yeah, that all makes pretty good sense.
I have found recently though (this season) that the most important thing is current form. Utd's is obviously much better as is their confidence level. I don't think personally that the importance of the game will be any less to Utd as beating their arch rivals is always as/more important than winning any cup.
That being said, Lpool will want to beat Utd just as much so it will certainly be interesting whichever way it goes!

Hi PJ as an odds compiler then you are always on the lookout for potential deviations from current form which is always lagging anyway otherwise you run the risk of being exposed price wise. So start with a core price and adjust accordingly

[Trader Pat]

I think Golum would relish the chance of effectively ending Liverpool's chances of finishing in the Top 4

Hi Pat... That's right he would but as a manager it's all about balancing risk and reward. The reward in this instance is trivial but a EL exit on Thursday would linger very long in the memory from a 6-2 lead. He would be a poor manager IMO if he put too much into todays game. Also irrespective of what he does it would affect the energy levels in the second half anyway so soon after Thursday unless he made numerous changes. Plus Liverpool have a big incentive in this game to get top four so in terms of motivation they are ahead of united here. And more away teams have won this season anyway as a result of no crowd advantage. My pricing on this game was basically the same as the market

Interesting thing to me about the prices are they haven't changed much since before Utd's game on Thursday, I would have expected Utd's price to start shortening after that result. Liverpool are too short imo and I wouldn't be surprised to see the prices closer together come kick off. Liverpool are motivated but they were motivated to beat Leeds & Newcastle and those two results make me think there are far bigger issues than just injuries. I'm worried this could be an ugly result today to go with all the recent ugly performances.

The first market I'll be involved in next season will be the first manager to go market and I'll be backing Klopp.

[Morbius]

I think Golum would relish the chance of effectively ending Liverpool's chances of finishing in the Top 4

Hi Pat... That's right he would but as a manager it's all about balancing risk and reward. The reward in this instance is trivial but a EL exit on Thursday would linger very long in the memory from a 6-2 lead. He would be a poor manager IMO if he put too much into todays game. Also irrespective of what he does it would affect the energy levels in the second half anyway so soon after Thursday unless he made numerous changes. Plus Liverpool have a big incentive in this game to get top four so in terms of motivation they are ahead of united here. And more away teams have won this season anyway as a result of no crowd advantage. My pricing on this game was basically the same as the market

Interesting thing to me about the prices are they haven't changed much since before Utd's game on Thursday, I would have expected Utd's price to start shortening after that result. Liverpool are too short imo and I wouldn't be surprised to see the prices closer together come kick off. Liverpool are motivated but they were motivated to beat Leeds & Newcastle and those two results make me think there are far bigger issues than just injuries. I'm worried this could be an ugly result today to go with all the recent ugly performances.

The first market I'll be involved in next season will be the first manager to go market and I'll be backing Klopp.

Klopp first manager to go next season

That's a misread. After ending 30 years of hurt and a 6th European Cup... Like Wenger and Fergie he will dictate his own exit. Expect an improved season anyway with VVD back and a couple of new signings. They won't be so bad that they will be forced to sack him like Leicester did with Ranieri. If they have another bad year then that would be c6th and no trophies. Then and only then he may go at the end of next season but not before.

[Morbius]

I think Golum would relish the chance of effectively ending Liverpool's chances of finishing in the Top 4

Hi Pat... That's right he would but as a manager it's all about balancing risk and reward. The reward in this instance is trivial but a EL exit on Thursday would linger very long in the memory from a 6-2 lead. He would be a poor manager IMO if he put too much into todays game. Also irrespective of what he does it would affect the energy levels in the second half anyway so soon after Thursday unless he made numerous changes. Plus Liverpool have a big incentive in this game to get top four so in terms of motivation they are ahead of united here. And more away teams have won this season anyway as a result of no crowd advantage. My pricing on this game was basically the same as the market

Interesting thing to me about the prices are they haven't changed much since before Utd's game on Thursday, I would have expected Utd's price to start shortening after that result. Liverpool are too short imo and I wouldn't be surprised to see the prices closer together come kick off. Liverpool are motivated but they were motivated to beat Leeds & Newcastle and those two results make me think there are far bigger issues than just injuries. I'm worried this could be an ugly result today to go with all the recent ugly performances.

The first market I'll be involved in next season will be the first manager to go market and I'll be backing Klopp.

A 6-2 scoreline isn't enough to affect prices much against sharp lines that are factoring in other variables.

[Kai]

Asking for a 4th European final in 5 years under Klopp would be a bit much. As would be asking for a third successive title challenge after achieving 97 and 99 points in the previous two seasons.

[greenmark]

Xhaka is a disaster area. No need at all to get a yellow on Saint-Maximin.