Trading What I see !?

[Anbell]

Part of the problem, and I don't mean this in a nasty way, is this forum is full of mostly "manual" traders, and Peter himself is mainly manual, so a lot of the advice and videos is manual based. The reality I think is it is very very difficult to fully automate manual strategies.
The other reality is automated successful traders obviously keep their secrets close to their chest!

The issue is not that it is very difficult to fully automate manual strategies. As Shaun noted, you don't even have a successful trading model.

And even manual trading is difficult, despite all the videos and advice. Why wouldn't it be? You're competing against Peter and other experts. Do you think they're going to leave a lazy tenner lying around on every race?

[ShaunWhite]

Smart people often think if something is described as difficult then surely it won't be that difficult for them. Now the penny has finally dropped I've got a feeling it's the end of the line, that comment about it being a waste of time if you lose was very revealing. I'm not lucky enough to succeed at everything I try so I've never thought about trying in those terms and I don't think many people on here have either. If you want guaranteed success you need to look for something easier. Tough love but no point rolling it in glitter.

[goat68]

Smart people often think if something is described as difficult then surely it won't be that difficult for them. Now the penny has finally dropped I've got a feeling it's the end of the line, that comment about it being a waste of time if you lose was very revealing. I'm not lucky enough to succeed at everything I try so I've never thought about trying in those terms and I don't think many people on here have either. If you want guaranteed success you need to look for something easier. Tough love but no point rolling it in glitter.

Don't believe everything I say, especially in a toy out of pram moment!
I'm not stupid enough to not believe it's difficult, and I also don't succeed at everything I try far from it, I wanted to achieve "Good for age" entry for the London Marathon (3hrs20), got close 3hrs28, then they moved the target (3hrs15 now and not guaranteed), that annoyed me!

[wearthefoxhat]

An example of one IP race today. (probably a bit lucky) was the Salisbury 1.30 race. Walls Of Kano

Salis 1.30 Pace.png

Salis 1.30Res.png

Heat zone (Green) is most profitable area to focus on B2L, the red zone, the least, L2B.

The Favourite unseated when travelling better, but a back 2 Lay was easily achieved once the Walls Of Kano hit the front early doors. With hindsight, a let it ride would have been possible. It also had a strong Speed Rating too.

[ShaunWhite]

Fair enough goat, I was being a little harsh. First failures are tough for anyone.

[goat68]

An example of one IP race today. (probably a bit lucky) was the Salisbury 1.30 race. Walls Of Kano


Salis 1.30 Pace.png


Salis 1.30Res.png


Heat zone (Green) is most profitable area to focus on B2L, the red zone, the least, L2B.

The Favourite unseated when travelling better, but a back 2 Lay was easily achieved once the Walls Of Kano hit the front early doors. With hindsight, a let it ride would have been possible. It also had a strong Speed Rating too.

Thanks, i'm taking a look at this IP, and going to give Peter's strategy here a go this week: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jN1WkDSNkrU
Done some research.. do realise it's a high reward:risk, but should be a high strike rate, this is my main area of concern...

[goat68]

I see i'm not the only one: viewtopic.php?f=53&t=23611
he's also wary of risk:reward, although as Peter says in replies, it is a high strike rate in response to not using a stop loss

[decomez6]

Fair enough goat, I was being a little harsh. First failures are tough for anyone.

this i take to mean " tough tools make the crude sharper" ...Shaun i personally have you to thank for my journey
i slowed down -in a good way - evaluated your recommendations on modelling/statistics /data science/ programming (including excel)..
looking back ..glad you are back .
i must admit , the learning curve is steep and i have taken breaks to concentrate on other priorities which only parents with teenage kid can relate to.
When time is of essence ,its always good to have a structured roadmap ,not to waste it looking in the wrong places !
i now know to use DATA as A` front windscreen `and NOT only as a` sidemirror` .....and thats only possible through modelling, so i am saying to goat , " I cannot loose ,i can only learn"
thanks again.

[wearthefoxhat]

An example of one IP race today. (probably a bit lucky) was the Salisbury 1.30 race. Walls Of Kano


Salis 1.30 Pace.png


Salis 1.30Res.png


Heat zone (Green) is most profitable area to focus on B2L, the red zone, the least, L2B.

The Favourite unseated when travelling better, but a back 2 Lay was easily achieved once the Walls Of Kano hit the front early doors. With hindsight, a let it ride would have been possible. It also had a strong Speed Rating too.

Thanks, i'm taking a look at this IP, and going to give Peter's strategy here a go this week: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jN1WkDSNkrU
Done some research.. do realise it's a high reward:risk, but should be a high strike rate, this is my main area of concern...

Good Luck.

There was one B2L today in the 1.21 Windsor.

1.21W.png

Mews House withdrawn, so its was a clear that Stake Acclaim was going to try and dominate. Backed by some at early doors @ 7.20 before the NR's. BSP of round 3.55.

Seraphinite would have been a good candidate for a nominated L2B. Poor speed rating too.

[ShaunWhite]

to concentrate on other priorities which only parents with teenage kid can relate to.

'Teenage' is an unnecessary filter. You'd think age would be a factor but the stress levels and negative PL remains fairly constant.

[goat68]

An example of one IP race today. (probably a bit lucky) was the Salisbury 1.30 race. Walls Of Kano


Salis 1.30 Pace.png


Salis 1.30Res.png


Heat zone (Green) is most profitable area to focus on B2L, the red zone, the least, L2B.

The Favourite unseated when travelling better, but a back 2 Lay was easily achieved once the Walls Of Kano hit the front early doors. With hindsight, a let it ride would have been possible. It also had a strong Speed Rating too.

Thanks, i'm taking a look at this IP, and going to give Peter's strategy here a go this week: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jN1WkDSNkrU
Done some research.. do realise it's a high reward:risk, but should be a high strike rate, this is my main area of concern...

Good Luck.

There was one B2L today in the 1.21 Windsor.


1.21W.png


Mews House withdrawn, so its was a clear that Stake Acclaim was going to try and dominate. Backed by some at early doors @ 7.20 before the NR's. BSP of round 3.55.

Seraphinite would have been a good candidate for a nominated L2B. Poor speed rating too.

By my rough calculations I need a strike rate about 95% to turn a profit, which seems a bit scary!

[ShaunWhite]

Thanks, i'm taking a look at this IP, and going to give Peter's strategy here a go this week: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jN1WkDSNkrU
Done some research.. do realise it's a high reward:risk, but should be a high strike rate, this is my main area of concern...

Good Luck.

There was one B2L today in the 1.21 Windsor.


1.21W.png


Mews House withdrawn, so its was a clear that Stake Acclaim was going to try and dominate. Backed by some at early doors @ 7.20 before the NR's. BSP of round 3.55.

Seraphinite would have been a good candidate for a nominated L2B. Poor speed rating too.

By my rough calculations I need a strike rate about 95% to turn a profit, which seems a bit scary!

Patternform.co.uk used to be an interesting source of in-running info but I think it's tenner a month now. The format is fairly easy to parse if you wanted to automate your selections. I'd guess the best L2B selections migh also be the worst B2L selections. Not my field though so who knows.

[goat68]

An example of one IP race today. (probably a bit lucky) was the Salisbury 1.30 race. Walls Of Kano


Salis 1.30 Pace.png


Salis 1.30Res.png


Heat zone (Green) is most profitable area to focus on B2L, the red zone, the least, L2B.

The Favourite unseated when travelling better, but a back 2 Lay was easily achieved once the Walls Of Kano hit the front early doors. With hindsight, a let it ride would have been possible. It also had a strong Speed Rating too.

Thanks, i'm taking a look at this IP, and going to give Peter's strategy here a go this week: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jN1WkDSNkrU
Done some research.. do realise it's a high reward:risk, but should be a high strike rate, this is my main area of concern...

Good Luck.

There was one B2L today in the 1.21 Windsor.


1.21W.png


Mews House withdrawn, so its was a clear that Stake Acclaim was going to try and dominate. Backed by some at early doors @ 7.20 before the NR's. BSP of round 3.55.

Seraphinite would have been a good candidate for a nominated L2B. Poor speed rating too.

Is that your own graphic? Or some web provider?

[wearthefoxhat]

Thanks, i'm taking a look at this IP, and going to give Peter's strategy here a go this week: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jN1WkDSNkrU
Done some research.. do realise it's a high reward:risk, but should be a high strike rate, this is my main area of concern...

Good Luck.

There was one B2L today in the 1.21 Windsor.


1.21W.png


Mews House withdrawn, so its was a clear that Stake Acclaim was going to try and dominate. Backed by some at early doors @ 7.20 before the NR's. BSP of round 3.55.

Seraphinite would have been a good candidate for a nominated L2B. Poor speed rating too.

Is that your own graphic? Or some web provider?

I'll drop a PM.

[Thebest147]

Thanks, i'm taking a look at this IP, and going to give Peter's strategy here a go this week: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jN1WkDSNkrU
Done some research.. do realise it's a high reward:risk, but should be a high strike rate, this is my main area of concern...

Good Luck.

There was one B2L today in the 1.21 Windsor.


1.21W.png


Mews House withdrawn, so its was a clear that Stake Acclaim was going to try and dominate. Backed by some at early doors @ 7.20 before the NR's. BSP of round 3.55.

Seraphinite would have been a good candidate for a nominated L2B. Poor speed rating too.

Is that your own graphic? Or some web provider?

Think it's geegeez