Gazuty's guidance

We were all new to Bet Angel once. Ask any question you like here and fellow forum members promise not to laugh. Betfair trading made simple.
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gazuty
Posts: 2429
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

Throat clearing preliminaries

If I did not have an ego I would not be here tonight
If I did not have an ego I might not think that I was right
(Skyhooks - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xpm9xwb5VnY )

These fora contain some very good guidance and information for newbies in various topics.

What follows are my own views on a number of topics that respond to frequent questions from newbies (which I may update/edit from time to time and will generally post this topic in response to newbie questions that I think can benefit from it). As they are my own views others may agree or disagree with them. I simply offer them as the views of someone who has achieved consistent profit for more than 10 consecutive years.


In the beginning

To commence you need an idea.

But I got a plan
Oh, do you understand?
(The Verve - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8p7jMXnLewY)

Open a google doc called “[yourname] Betfair ideas”. This will be your journal to record your ideas and happenings over your betfair journey. Keeping records of your ideas and analysing your outcomes writing things down and returning to them over and over and over again is the key to success.

In addition to a journal of ideas also keep a diary of what you do each day on Betfair. Open a google doc called “[yourname] Betfair diary”. For example, record in your diary notes about various horse races and how each race performed and how each course performed overall on each day. Do you notice things about big race days and big races versus quieter race days and small races? Are there differences between maidens and group one races? Are there differences between Saturdays and Tuesdays? Whatever the sporting event keep a good record of what happens over time and over different parts of the year.

After you have fully recorded your first idea proceed to implementing your idea. An example of a written down idea is Lay the Draw in EPL and that you will lay the draw in each match where 20 mins before the start the draw is between 2.5 and 3.5 for a liability of £100 and that you will trade out after a goal or red out if the draw gets to 2. No matter what happens stick to your idea. If for example there are no goals and the draw reaches 2 then red out and accept your loss. Consider why this happened?.

Now that you are up and going, you will have lots of strategies. Understand which of your strategies are successful and which are not and consider why in each case.

Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdRH5wzCQQw WC

The final part of the beginning is analysing your results over a time period. I analyse my results quarterly but in the beginning I suggest you analyse your results on a weekly basis. For this you download your results from that fair and then look on the forum or elsewhere to find good software tools that allow you to analyse your results. Eg Excel power query. Do you notice anything or see any trends?


Seeking help and providing information

Lend me your ears, then I'll sing you a song
I will try not to sing out of key, yeah
(Joe Cocker via Lennon/McCartney - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nCrlyX6XbTU )

The forum is full of lots of experienced and forthright people. When asking for assistance give as much information as possible (it’s always very helpful if you can paste the log file if you consider there was a glitch or misfire) and consider all of the responses carefully (even if you disagree with a response consider why the response was given).

Is it getting better?
Or do you feel the same?
Will it make it easier on you now?
You got someone to blame
(U2 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftjEcrrf7r0)

You are responsible for your own losses. It was your decision to choose to use the software and seek to make a profit on the exchange. When making a response think if it will assist you now and in the future?

There is a wonderful positive example of asking for assistance, providing information and getting great replies, read the thread “Trading what I see” viewtopic.php?f=5&t=21616. What do you see?

If you think of abusing people?

We could live
For a thousand years
But if I hurt you
I'd make wine from your tears
(INXS - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_VU9DjQpvMQ)


Loss recovery, martingale, gambler’s fallacy

Just when you are at the point that it will take your entire bank (and you don’t want to go back to your wife to make yet another deposit in to your account) and ok you’ve lost 5 in a row, but that means the next event is real value because this kind of thing just doesn’t happen 6 times in a row, it never has in the history of sports betting, it just ….

You’ve gotta ask yourself a question
Do I feel lucky?
Well do ya, punk?
(Dirty Harry, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ky7rHZmk9Yw)

If you are lucky enough to have discovered a method to consistently profit from your ideas congratulations. Losses are an inevitable part of taking part in this game. A 100% strike rate isn’t going to happen.

Loss recovery systems do not indicate that you are successful. Loss recovery systems all tend to some version of martingale - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingal ... ng_system). While you are at it think about gambler’s fallacy - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

Take a look at my greyhound results posted at viewtopic.php?f=11&t=13541&start=440. What should I do? Should I worry about losses and if so how?


Scaling up

Thinkerbell-Ladbrokes-1.png
LADBROKES-rocket.jpg

Sure, 10% a day? Do you understand the concept of compounding?

In every market there is a maximum available profit and there is a maximum available profit for any particular strategy. In addition, any time you match a bet or make money available away from but near the action, you impact the market in a way in which it would not have been impacted had you not participated.

Your strategy might be successful at lower stakes and unsuccessful at higher stakes. Maybe, you need to scale down? And expand the markets. Shouldn’t your aim be to have a small edge and flip a coin millions of times rather than to have a small edge and flip it occasionally?


The steam roller

Do not follow strategies that are the equivalent of picking up pennies in front of the steam roller. The steam roller never stops. You stumble or get your dressing gown caught in it - it's over. How does it happen? You back at 1.05 and are going to lay at 1.04. After all, the favourite is not going to stumble now? The come back scenario for the underdog is simply impossible. But they hit the next ball for six. And now the odds are 1.1. But this bowler will close it out with a wicket now because, c’mon i mean, you know, its just crazy. What, another six, but it was lucky, off the top edge. Still 1.8, sheepers, if I press the “close and green” now I’ll have a giant red. I’ll just let it run, I mean, surely, come on, this is just bizarre and unprecedented …. Sweat pouring out of your armpits, your throat is dry, they need three off the last ball, it’s just, I can’t even, nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

And afterwards ...

Hello darkness, my old friend
I've come to talk with you again
(Simon & Garfunkel, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9z87viDmOo)

And then when you get past that ...

Round like a circle in a spiral, like a wheel within a wheel
Never ending or beginning on an ever spinning reel
(Windmills of your mind, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEhS9Y9HYjU)

And then there is the long term damage. How do you recover? Do you accept the lesson (go back to the beginning above, write this in your daily diary and write this down in your ideas journal). Or does it just play in your mind for the next six months, just before you go to sleep, like a recurring nightmare, like the circles that you find in the windmills of your mind?


Resources

But there were other times,
I thought I was mainlining the secret truth of the universe
(True Dectective, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qowEisIvD7k)

My suggestions

Do you need to go any further than:

This is a zero sum game

tyler_400x400.jpg

Gentlemen, welcome to Fight Club
The first rule of Fight Club is, we do not talk about Fight Club
(Fight Club, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dC1yHLp9bWA)

Even if we rarely talk about it, the simple fact is you are trying to take my money and I am trying to take yours. I'm a millionaire, that's the difference. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5PrrVt34Mw

And no matter what, Betfair is creaming off the rake. Just as quickly we calculated 2% of the pot and had taken if off the table https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ccunmtqqRV0

So, if that is the case, where do you find your edge?

To be a rock, and not to roll (Led Zepplin, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-TNkZeqskw)


This is just gambling (I don't believe any of you are sucessful)

It is the task of the enlightened not only to ascend to learning and to see the good but to be willing to descend again to those prisoners and to share their troubles and their honors, whether they are worth having or not. And this they must do, even with the prospect of death. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RWOpQXTltA

I understand that you are smart and as a smart person if you can't make this work no-one can. Thank you for your original contribution - see viewtopic.php?f=5&t=10865&start=90
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Kai
Posts: 4238
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm
Location: Hogwarts, UK

Wow, immense effort Gaz!

Fully deserving of the Dallas trademark megathumb Image
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Derek27
Posts: 16131
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

I had just finished preparing my database and instructions last night when I saw Gazuty's post and thought fuck it, I'll leave it till tomorrow. :)

But well worth a read, has a bit of everything and very well put together. Keeping a diary from the very beginning is something I suspect very few traders have done but many will have wished they had done during their journey. That sceptic at the end was before my time on the forum but it just reminds me, though we've had a lot of them, they've been around since the beginning of time.
Trader Pat
Posts: 4199
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 5:11 pm
Keeping a diary from the very beginning is something I suspect very few traders have done but many will have wished they had done during their journey.
Amen to that!

Was a great read, particularly liked the movie references :D
Anbell
Posts: 1449
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

Good work Gazuty
Logijunior
Posts: 2
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 4:32 pm

This is my first post, I have been trading for 2 years and have been through the ringer as most newbies have and as I believe you have to, to ultimately be successful. Luckily for me I am now on the right path with circa 4000 markets behind me and so can appreciate how brilliant this guidance is. Thank you Gazuty...
andy28
Posts: 186
Joined: Sat Jan 30, 2021 12:06 am
Location: NZ

Hi Thanks for that, great read.

Here's the issue I have, I am not tech savvy, I read the threads re statistical things, probablity, files and coding and I don't understand any of it.

I have been using exchanges for years, I started with Flutter before going to betfair when it started. My mind is that of a sports trading and that is my passion but I read how complex some of the data most gather, all the info many gather and how they apply it. I read about 22 pages of the thread where some clown said this is all random and luck, but to me this is far from that. I turn a small profit from scalping but how does a guy like me go further? I never walk away from anything but when I read how complex some of the data is and I also saw a Betfair video where one of the guys was a ex pro gambler that was in a syndicate that turned over $43m just in exotic bets alone, so most likely they are turning over $100m+ in all bets. What edge could possibly be left for someone like me?

I watch the BA video's and they are great and I also like the automation side of things at BA, and to be honest the BA automation is the only chance I have I think. But even for that you need your own data and a way to interpret it, retrieve it, then apply it. I want to get involved with the up coming football season on the main 5-6 leagues in Europe. I have recorded all of last seasons matches I have given each team in each league a ranking, when goals were scored and how many per game. I also now can work out an Xgoal (roughly) for a match. So my question is what other stats will be useful for me and also maybe a goto website for these leagues, currently I use soccerstats.

The other issue is I am a Kiwi so I will need to automate most of this as the matches will be played in the middle of the night, so any late team changes could be costly

So I guess I am also asking what is the best way forward for me with limited computer skills, I have learnt basic excel skills since I have been here but nothing special, are there traders like me or should I just keep to scalping?

I do have an advantage of being semi retired so I have time on my side and have allowed 2yrs fo find a way forward. Also I had a side hussle when I was working of betting on horse racing so understand that side of things, again I did ok but nothing special.

Any advice would be greatly appreciated

Regards Andy
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gazuty
Posts: 2429
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

andy28 wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 5:56 am
Hi Thanks for that, great read.
Thanks - appreciated.
andy28 wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 5:56 am
Here's the issue I have, I am not tech savvy, I read the threads re statistical things, probablity, files and coding and I don't understand any of it.
Guardian is the best way to automate. Most people can learn to do it.
andy28 wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 5:56 am
I have been using exchanges for years, I started with Flutter before going to betfair when it started. My mind is that of a sports trading and that is my passion but I read how complex some of the data most gather, all the info many gather and how they apply it. I read about 22 pages of the thread where some clown said this is all random and luck, but to me this is far from that. I turn a small profit from scalping but how does a guy like me go further? I never walk away from anything but when I read how complex some of the data is and I also saw a Betfair video where one of the guys was a ex pro gambler that was in a syndicate that turned over $43m just in exotic bets alone, so most likely they are turning over $100m+ in all bets. What edge could possibly be left for someone like me?

I watch the BA video's and they are great and I also like the automation side of things at BA, and to be honest the BA automation is the only chance I have I think. But even for that you need your own data and a way to interpret it, retrieve it, then apply it. I want to get involved with the up coming football season on the main 5-6 leagues in Europe. I have recorded all of last seasons matches I have given each team in each league a ranking, when goals were scored and how many per game. I also now can work out an Xgoal (roughly) for a match. So my question is what other stats will be useful for me and also maybe a goto website for these leagues, currently I use soccerstats.
Don't overthink the amount of data. For me, I have the idea first, and then I test it out. Testing things out and tweaking is the data I require. I don't rely on heaps of data in advance or do masses of stats anlaysis.
andy28 wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 5:56 am
The other issue is I am a Kiwi so I will need to automate most of this as the matches will be played in the middle of the night, so any late team changes could be costly
Best thing for me about Bet Angel is guardian and the ability to be fully automated. There are ways of addressing and preparing in advance for most (but not every) scenario. Implement idea. See results. Refine. See results. Refine. See results. Refine. See results. Refine. See results. Refine. See results. Refine. See results. Refine. See results. Refine. See results. Refine. See results. Refine. See results. Refine. See results. Refine. See results. Refine. See results. Refine. See results. Refine. See results. Refine. See results. Refine. See results. Refine.

Go for it. And at the end of the day, small profits are better than a poke in the eye with a stick.
Anbell
Posts: 1449
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

andy28 wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 5:56 am
Hi Thanks for that, great read.

Here's the issue I have, I am not tech savvy, I read the threads re statistical things, probablity, files and coding and I don't understand any of it.

I have been using exchanges for years, I started with Flutter before going to betfair when it started. My mind is that of a sports trading and that is my passion but I read how complex some of the data most gather, all the info many gather and how they apply it. I read about 22 pages of the thread where some clown said this is all random and luck, but to me this is far from that. I turn a small profit from scalping but how does a guy like me go further? I never walk away from anything but when I read how complex some of the data is and I also saw a Betfair video where one of the guys was a ex pro gambler that was in a syndicate that turned over $43m just in exotic bets alone, so most likely they are turning over $100m+ in all bets. What edge could possibly be left for someone like me?

I watch the BA video's and they are great and I also like the automation side of things at BA, and to be honest the BA automation is the only chance I have I think. But even for that you need your own data and a way to interpret it, retrieve it, then apply it. I want to get involved with the up coming football season on the main 5-6 leagues in Europe. I have recorded all of last seasons matches I have given each team in each league a ranking, when goals were scored and how many per game. I also now can work out an Xgoal (roughly) for a match. So my question is what other stats will be useful for me and also maybe a goto website for these leagues, currently I use soccerstats.

The other issue is I am a Kiwi so I will need to automate most of this as the matches will be played in the middle of the night, so any late team changes could be costly

So I guess I am also asking what is the best way forward for me with limited computer skills, I have learnt basic excel skills since I have been here but nothing special, are there traders like me or should I just keep to scalping?

I do have an advantage of being semi retired so I have time on my side and have allowed 2yrs fo find a way forward. Also I had a side hussle when I was working of betting on horse racing so understand that side of things, again I did ok but nothing special.

Any advice would be greatly appreciated

Regards Andy
Gazuty is right, as usual: It helps to have a hypothesis that you can test and refine and test and refine. To do that, it helps to find some thing that happens very frequently so that you've got a reasonable sample size. I don't trade football but I can't think of some 'thing' with sufficient sample size (I'm sure others will have some examples.)

If you've given yourself two years, then I reckon the best thing for you is to take an excel course and learn some statistics (and Guardian automation.) You need to build skills that will help you find a way to make green, otherwise you'll be treading water forever.

And as for 'what can be left for me if someone is turning over $100MM?' I'm reminded of elephants and dung beetles etc. Elephants leave poop and footprints. What can you make with that?
andy28
Posts: 186
Joined: Sat Jan 30, 2021 12:06 am
Location: NZ

Thanks for the replies, I am slowly building up my records and do refine what I can, have started a excel course so that should also help. Gaurdian will be a big help for me as are the forums. The BA videos are great and I revisit them frequently.
Thanks Again

Andy
firlandsfarm
Posts: 1820
Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am

gazuty wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 4:16 am
This is just gambling (I don't believe any of you are sucessful)
Brilliant read gazuty, it helps to remind yourself how you got here and why you are here and apply what you have said to your own recent actions and bring them back on line.

As for the line above, people who say that don't know the difference between gambling and betting, it's a discussion I have had many times with non-believers. I remember telling my neighbour what I do and he laughed and remarked that he thought I was more intelligent than to believe I could profit from betting and no amount of explanation would change his mind.
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Kai
Posts: 4238
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm
Location: Hogwarts, UK

andy28 wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 5:56 am
I read about 22 pages of the thread where some clown said this is all random
Dunno which thread but I see a lot of people have issues with randomness overall and flat out give up, but trading isn't matched betting, why shy away from a challenge and why not try to find a framework for that randomness, as if random means bad, if everything was clear-cut there would be 95% winners in the markets and this doesn't sound like a sustainable model at all.
andy28 wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 5:56 am
I turn a small profit from scalping but how does a guy like me go further?
A lot of newcomers find their first edges on the ladder itself, as did I as a relative newcomer, but I think there are 2 main logical paths forward. The obvious one would be to scale your confidence or comfort zone or however you wanna call it, obviously on markets that can handle such volume without any edge spillage, and the other is to scale your betting frequency which unless you can grind and multitask for 22 hours every day means going down the auto route.

I suppose a third option is to treat the betting exchanges as a stepping stone and move on to less stigmatized markets, that's an appealing one as well and maybe even the most sensible one long term.
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Gravesen33
Posts: 32
Joined: Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:48 pm

Hi All,
Can any1 tell me how to calculate the percentage on Lay odds 2nd best and 3rd best price column as we have given only the % of the best Back or Lay price
Thanks
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