Profitable strategy for sale

[Derek27]

At least you're funny, Derek is always sad, I don't know what's wrong with him. He may be ill.

You don't get much sadder than pretending in a place like this of all places that you made £10K for selling a simple strategy!

[Trader724]

Have you thought about creating another two simple strategies/bots and selling them for £10K each?

Why only two?

That was a (Martingale) joke.

Ah, finally a joke. Good one.

[Trader724]

At least you're funny, Derek is always sad, I don't know what's wrong with him. He may be ill.

You don't get much sadder than pretending in a place like this of all places that you made £10K for selling a simple strategy!

You finally realized that the price of 10,000 was a joke. It's still something.

[Derek27]

At least you're funny, Derek is always sad, I don't know what's wrong with him. He may be ill.

You don't get much sadder than pretending in a place like this of all places that you made £10K for selling a simple strategy!

You finally realized that the price of 10,000 was a joke. It's still something.

I actually thought your OP was a joke until I saw the following pages.

[Trader724]

You don't get much sadder than pretending in a place like this of all places that you made £10K for selling a simple strategy!

You finally realized that the price of 10,000 was a joke. It's still something.

I actually thought your OP was a joke until I saw the following pages.

Sometimes appearances are deceiving.

[Anbell]

Depending on how you use Martingale, it can be beneficial under certain conditions but not in the way people think. The chances of doubling a sum of money with the Martingale betting system in which the chances of a single bet being won are 50%, are 1 / e, ie ~ 37%. It is obvious that you better bet the whole amount on a single bet with 50/50 chances.

right place at the right time.
Spot a bias on ( European)roulette wheel, 30 blacks in a row ( which happens more often if you play for long enough) , put your martingale on a red and you get yourself 9 more chances to double or burst .... bell 🛎 curves and p values working in your favour.
Every trading plan/ staking plan has got the market for it .

But the bias is working against you?

[decomez6]

Depending on how you use Martingale, it can be beneficial under certain conditions but not in the way people think. The chances of doubling a sum of money with the Martingale betting system in which the chances of a single bet being won are 50%, are 1 / e, ie ~ 37%. It is obvious that you better bet the whole amount on a single bet with 50/50 chances.

right place at the right time.
Spot a bias on ( European)roulette wheel, 30 blacks in a row ( which happens more often if you play for long enough) , put your martingale on a red and you get yourself 9 more chances to double or burst .... bell 🛎 curves and p values working in your favour.
Every trading plan/ staking plan has got the market for it .

But the bias is working against you?

Not really , you strike like a preditor. Watch a lioness or a leopard hunt. Perfect timing.
Just about when the hunted is at their peek, you let them do the hard work then use your reserve to bring them down .

[Trader724]

right place at the right time.
Spot a bias on ( European)roulette wheel, 30 blacks in a row ( which happens more often if you play for long enough) , put your martingale on a red and you get yourself 9 more chances to double or burst .... bell 🛎 curves and p values working in your favour.
Every trading plan/ staking plan has got the market for it .

But the bias is working against you?

Not really , you strike like a preditor. Watch a lioness or a leopard hunt. Perfect timing.
Just about when the hunted is at their peek, you let them do the hard work then use your reserve to bring them down .

Prior outcomes in a series of events doesn't affect the probability of a future outcome if the events in question are independent and identically distributed. 30 blacks in a row is not a bias.

[decomez6]

But the bias is working against you?

Not really , you strike like a preditor. Watch a lioness or a leopard hunt. Perfect timing.
Just about when the hunted is at their peek, you let them do the hard work then use your reserve to bring them down .

Prior outcomes in a series of events doesn't affect the probability of a future outcome if the events in question are independent and identically distributed. 30 blacks in a row is not a bias.

Remove the zero :green from the equation , then assume black / red. Have equal probabilities .
From there deduct your null hypothesis ... it is then highly unlikely to get 36 blacks in a row and if you spot that , it’s an absolute outlier .. how is that not bias .
How else would the government officials that regulate casinos detect a false hand / croupier in the casinos .
It is also in the interest of the casino owners to get it corrected .
It’s all about where your results are in the bell curve and when you decide to entertain yourself.

add on :
How to win in a chance of 50/50
https://youtube.com/watch?v=RTi5ekVHIM8&feature=share

[Anbell]

Not really , you strike like a preditor. Watch a lioness or a leopard hunt. Perfect timing.
Just about when the hunted is at their peek, you let them do the hard work then use your reserve to bring them down .

Prior outcomes in a series of events doesn't affect the probability of a future outcome if the events in question are independent and identically distributed. 30 blacks in a row is not a bias.

Remove the zero :green from the equation , then assume black / red. Have equal probabilities .
From there deduct your null hypothesis ... it is then highly unlikely to get 36 blacks in a row and if you spot that , it’s an absolute outlier .. how is that not bias .
How else would the government officials that regulate casinos detect a false hand / croupier in the casinos .
It is also in the interest of the casino owners to get it corrected .
It’s all about where your results are in the bell curve and when you decide to entertain yourself.

add on :
How to win in a chance of 50/50
https://youtube.com/watch?v=RTi5ekVHIM8&feature=share

The outcomes are either independent, or there is a bias.

If they are independent then the chance of getting a red doesn't change.

If there's a bias, then you're taking a neg EV bet by backing red.

[Trader724]

Not really , you strike like a preditor. Watch a lioness or a leopard hunt. Perfect timing.
Just about when the hunted is at their peek, you let them do the hard work then use your reserve to bring them down .

Prior outcomes in a series of events doesn't affect the probability of a future outcome if the events in question are independent and identically distributed. 30 blacks in a row is not a bias.

Remove the zero :green from the equation , then assume black / red. Have equal probabilities .
From there deduct your null hypothesis ... it is then highly unlikely to get 36 blacks in a row and if you spot that , it’s an absolute outlier .. how is that not bias .
How else would the government officials that regulate casinos detect a false hand / croupier in the casinos .
It is also in the interest of the casino owners to get it corrected .
It’s all about where your results are in the bell curve and when you decide to entertain yourself.

add on :
How to win in a chance of 50/50
https://youtube.com/watch?v=RTi5ekVHIM8&feature=share

Given enough time everything that can happen will happen no matter how unlikely it is. Even after a series of 1000 blacks in a row, on the next spin the chances on black are still 50%.

Have you tried Penney's game at the roulette?

[Trader724]

Prior outcomes in a series of events doesn't affect the probability of a future outcome if the events in question are independent and identically distributed. 30 blacks in a row is not a bias.

Remove the zero :green from the equation , then assume black / red. Have equal probabilities .
From there deduct your null hypothesis ... it is then highly unlikely to get 36 blacks in a row and if you spot that , it’s an absolute outlier .. how is that not bias .
How else would the government officials that regulate casinos detect a false hand / croupier in the casinos .
It is also in the interest of the casino owners to get it corrected .
It’s all about where your results are in the bell curve and when you decide to entertain yourself.

add on :
How to win in a chance of 50/50
https://youtube.com/watch?v=RTi5ekVHIM8&feature=share

The outcomes are either independent, or there is a bias.

If they are independent then the chance of getting a red doesn't change.

If there's a bias, then you're taking a neg EV bet by backing red.

Yep if it's biased towards blacks you should bet on black not red. But still not martingale style.

[decomez6]

Remove the zero :green from the equation , then assume black / red. Have equal probabilities .
From there deduct your null hypothesis ... it is then highly unlikely to get 36 blacks in a row and if you spot that , it’s an absolute outlier .. how is that not bias .
How else would the government officials that regulate casinos detect a false hand / croupier in the casinos .
It is also in the interest of the casino owners to get it corrected .
It’s all about where your results are in the bell curve and when you decide to entertain yourself.

add on :
How to win in a chance of 50/50
https://youtube.com/watch?v=RTi5ekVHIM8&feature=share

The outcomes are either independent, or there is a bias.

If they are independent then the chance of getting a red doesn't change.

If there's a bias, then you're taking a neg EV bet by backing red.

Yep if it's biased towards blacks you should bet on black not red. But still not martingale style.

Gamblers fallacy noted
But I argue from a point of vantage. Is there any time when the cards are stack in your favour ?
Of course.
You are not martingaling the EV, ( which is absolutely independent) .. it’s the prevailing conditions , in short trading what you see , something like order flow.. top range, resistance . Support, vwap , correlation etc.
When the conditions are right , the odds are in your favour but that doesn’t change the expected value of any price movement outcome .

As you say given time , everything that must happen will happen. Now let’s assume that the fill rate is 100% , liquidity 100% backers and layers at equal amounts , this will still not stop prices stalling and overshooting at crossover points. FOMO and STOP loss hunts, will ensure that price movement is biased towards one way or another and also the pay offs are well structured to favour the layer than the backer .
Now if you took red on roulette table and I took black , the only winner is the house/ exchange.. due to commission/ house edge .. but if one of us took a strategically advantageous position at a crossover point ..things change . But the expected values remain the same.
Hope that makes sense.

[Anbell]

The outcomes are either independent, or there is a bias.

If they are independent then the chance of getting a red doesn't change.

If there's a bias, then you're taking a neg EV bet by backing red.

Yep if it's biased towards blacks you should bet on black not red. But still not martingale style.

Gamblers fallacy noted
But I argue from a point of vantage. Is there any time when the cards are stack in your favour ?
Of course.
You are not martingaling the EV, ( which is absolutely independent) .. it’s the prevailing conditions , in short trading what you see , something like order flow.. top range, resistance . Support, vwap , correlation etc.
When the conditions are right , the odds are in your favour but that doesn’t change the expected value of any price movement outcome .

As you say given time , everything that must happen will happen. Now let’s assume that the fill rate is 100% , liquidity 100% backers and layers at equal amounts , this will still not stop prices stalling and overshooting at crossover points. FOMO and STOP loss hunts, will ensure that price movement is biased towards one way or another and also the pay offs are well structured to favour the layer than the backer .
Now if you took red on roulette table and I took black , the only winner is the house/ exchange.. due to commission/ house edge .. but if one of us took a strategically advantageous position at a crossover point ..things change . But the expected values remain the same.
Hope that makes sense.

There is no crossover point on a roulette table.

[decomez6]

Prior outcomes in a series of events doesn't affect the probability of a future outcome if the events in question are independent and identically distributed. 30 blacks in a row is not a bias.

Remove the zero :green from the equation , then assume black / red. Have equal probabilities .
From there deduct your null hypothesis ... it is then highly unlikely to get 36 blacks in a row and if you spot that , it’s an absolute outlier .. how is that not bias .
How else would the government officials that regulate casinos detect a false hand / croupier in the casinos .
It is also in the interest of the casino owners to get it corrected .
It’s all about where your results are in the bell curve and when you decide to entertain yourself.

add on :
How to win in a chance of 50/50
https://youtube.com/watch?v=RTi5ekVHIM8&feature=share

The outcomes are either independent, or there is a bias.

If they are independent then the chance of getting a red doesn't change.

If there's a bias, then you're taking a neg EV bet by backing red.

Gamblers fallacy noted
If you put an antelope and leopard on level playing grounds, the leopard has no chance . It will know that he EV. of it going hungry that night is as good as guaranteed.hence you trade what you see , the context of an event cannot be ruled out .what is happening on the ground is equally important from and it does alter what should happen under fair conditions.