Trading What I see !?

[Anbell]

Those results look good. BTW do you know about the NSW turnover charge in Aus?

I don't know much about it except that after a certain point (something like £3k of TURNOVER e.g. 6x £500 stakes in 1 day). The commission is so ridiculous that basically people don't run bots on it or can't go over that threshold because it's -EV

TOC only applies to thoroughbred horse racing in NSW. There's lots of aus racing besides that. The higher aus commission rates generally don't help much but at least your discount rate still applies to that even though it's no longer relevant for UK racing.

What's defined as a Thoroughbred race?

Horse with a jockey on top (not harness)

[marko236]

Why do some people make some of the simplest things so complicated.

Have to agree with Black Ladder, the market goes up or down usually between 1 to 20 ticks for or against you thats all it does, your job as a trader is to spot a sign that the market is about to do something enter the market then monitor the market and exit for the best result positive or negative.

I see trading as a 50/50 game every choice you make is either going to be right or wrong positive or negative, every new bot i make will have a simple reason to enter market and the same for exiting and i'll twick it so that on average they will fire around 50% of the time.

If i set my bot up in 20 Markets i'm only looking for it to enter in around 10 Markets, out of the 10 markets i'm only looking for the bot to exit the trade 50% of time positive or negative.

I find this stratagy to be best at showing if my ideas for entering and exiting trades are any good over 50% correct.

[Realrocknrolla]

I have also mentioned this before.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KISS_principle

kiss-principle.jpg

[decomez6]

Why do some people make some of the simplest things so complicated.

agree with Black Ladder, the market goes up or down usually between 1 to 20 ticks for or against .
trading as a 50/50 game
If i set my bot up in 20 Markets i'm only looking for it to enter in around 10 Markets, out of the 10 markets i'm only looking for the bot to exit the trade 50% of time positive or negative.
I find this stratagy to be best at showing if my ideas for entering and exiting trades are any good over 50% correct.

the fundamental buiding blocks of the market are binary in nature. up/down .
a simple process indeed.
Randomness is the elusive part.
Not unless you have collected enough samples, either through experience(manually trading) or data collection then a 50/50 chance can be profitable -bf commission.

how big is the ice berg ?
you are only seeing the tip of it (your current working sample)
how to tell your entrance is fairly priced and you are not in`no mans land`

[goat68]

Why do some people make some of the simplest things so complicated.

Have to agree with Black Ladder, the market goes up or down usually between 1 to 20 ticks for or against you thats all it does, your job as a trader is to spot a sign that the market is about to do something enter the market then monitor the market and exit for the best result positive or negative.

I see trading as a 50/50 game every choice you make is either going to be right or wrong positive or negative, every new bot i make will have a simple reason to enter market and the same for exiting and i'll twick it so that on average they will fire around 50% of the time.

If i set my bot up in 20 Markets i'm only looking for it to enter in around 10 Markets, out of the 10 markets i'm only looking for the bot to exit the trade 50% of time positive or negative.

I find this stratagy to be best at showing if my ideas for entering and exiting trades are any good over 50% correct.

I think "algo/quant" traders will disagree with this enter & exit strategy, first, "crossing the spread" every time you exit is very expensive. It's all about each individual bet being "value"

[goat68]

So flat on face again!
Forgot to factor commission (5-6% AUS) in above which brings it right down, then removing NSW races make it even worse:

Screenshot 2021-06-03 at 11.24.25.png

[marko236]

Why do some people make some of the simplest things so complicated.

Have to agree with Black Ladder, the market goes up or down usually between 1 to 20 ticks for or against you thats all it does, your job as a trader is to spot a sign that the market is about to do something enter the market then monitor the market and exit for the best result positive or negative.

I see trading as a 50/50 game every choice you make is either going to be right or wrong positive or negative, every new bot i make will have a simple reason to enter market and the same for exiting and i'll twick it so that on average they will fire around 50% of the time.

If i set my bot up in 20 Markets i'm only looking for it to enter in around 10 Markets, out of the 10 markets i'm only looking for the bot to exit the trade 50% of time positive or negative.

I find this stratagy to be best at showing if my ideas for entering and exiting trades are any good over 50% correct.

I think "algo/quant" traders will disagree with this enter & exit strategy, first, "crossing the spread" every time you exit is very expensive. It's all about each individual bet being "value"

I only use the word value when betting, a horse for example can be in a non value price but you can still make money on it trading. I don't care or even think about value as a trader i'm just looking for signals that the market is more likely to move in a certain direction.

[ShaunWhite]

I think "algo/quant" traders will disagree with this enter & exit strategy, first, "crossing the spread" every time you exit is very expensive. It's all about each individual bet being "value"

Different disciplines, manual traders look for movement and some automation looks for value, but not all. Besides it's impossible to determine value accurately on any given horse at any time, that's only possible looking at averages.

What is a given is that you only make money by getting value no matter what you do, the difference is that manual traders find it inadvertantly as a byproduct of their method, not as the method in and of itself.

Crossing the spread loses value but that's not the same as exiting, you can exit by taking or offering a price, and you can enter by taking or offering a price.

[ShaunWhite]

I only use the word value when betting, a horse for example can be in a non value price but you can still make money on it trading. I don't care or even think about value as a trader i'm just looking for signals that the market is more likely to move in a certain direction.

Exactly. And if you get those moves more right than wrong it's a quirk of maths that at the end of the year your pile of back bets, and your pile of lay bets show a betting profit. But that only shows up in the bigger averages because we obviously can't know a horses true chance on the day to a high degree of certainty. Some techniques favour going straight for the value and some favour arriving at that end point by going via movement. Horses for courses, both equally valid.

[LinusP]

I only use the word value when betting, a horse for example can be in a non value price but you can still make money on it trading. I don't care or even think about value as a trader i'm just looking for signals that the market is more likely to move in a certain direction.

No you can't

[Trader724]

I only use the word value when betting, a horse for example can be in a non value price but you can still make money on it trading. I don't care or even think about value as a trader i'm just looking for signals that the market is more likely to move in a certain direction.

No you can't

Liam, I think you're a little carried away. Upstream.

[marko236]

I only use the word value when betting, a horse for example can be in a non value price but you can still make money on it trading. I don't care or even think about value as a trader i'm just looking for signals that the market is more likely to move in a certain direction.

No you can't

So say at the ending of horse racing today it turns out that backing the faviorite ten mins. out in all races would be value, are you saying that a laying stratagy could not turn a profit?

[ShaunWhite]

I only use the word value when betting, a horse for example can be in a non value price but you can still make money on it trading. I don't care or even think about value as a trader i'm just looking for signals that the market is more likely to move in a certain direction.

No you can't

Yep, but it's a happy accident.

As prices generally become more accurate the nearer you get to post time, they're constantly taking a position that's less accurate (ie greater value) than the more accurate price it will move to (ie lesser value) IF their predicted move occurs.

[Black Ladder]

Why do some people make some of the simplest things so complicated.

No it wasn't a joke, I was being serious. Because I have followed you so far through your journey and it's been an interesting read, and clearly you have had a lot of good support behind you. And I want you to be successful, not crash n burn, hence the comment.

[goat68]

Why do some people make some of the simplest things so complicated.

No it wasn't a joke, I was being serious. Because I have followed you so far through your journey and it's been an interesting read, and clearly you have had a lot of good support behind you. And I want you to be successful, not crash n burn, hence the comment.

Appreciate your support.
I feel as though i'm just trying too hard at the moment, I gave up simple, didn't seem to work