Anybody like to discuss this?

[tar1234]

I've only been pre race trading for a couple of months so feel free to discount this advice but the moment I complicate trading or pay attention to too many different things it all goes tits up.

I've been following Peters advice and just tried to focus on one runner and sure enough it works. I think if you pay attention to a runner from the start and ignore the noise you're going to know it's beginning, middle and therefore it's potential end.

Maybe go back to basics for a bit and get back your confidence??

[darchas]

So much gold in this thread! Great conversation starter xtrader and thanks to all the contributors - some fantastic stuff in here for anyone that might be looking for a few pointers.

[xtrader16]

Whoever this bot is at +01:55 it is controlling the market to such an extent its amazing to watch. By my estimate it is putting around £4-5,000 into the market over a 10 second period. The knowedge behind the set up is quite astonishing to watch.

[xtrader16]

Furthermore, I think the amount of money you need to constantly risk far outweighs any potentional profit. If you wanted to make an average of £150 a day your daily risk will be closer to £500 that the £150 you hope to make. One thing you never see in these forums or anywhere else is the results people make throughout the day. I dont think for one second that people are making a fortune out of this Betfair Trading but I'd say that account for 10% of traders and they are the ones who know the software inside out. Good Luck to them but the other 90% are just feeding the market.

[decomez6]

Whoever this bot is at +01:55 it is controlling the market

-dumb money v/s smart money v/s -manual trades V/s Algo trades ...... etc
all must close thier positions while others open positions in preparation for the IN -play markets.
The BSP is a reflection of market effeciency and thats why the market correct itself towards the Final BSP in the last 2 mins. the bigger question is ?
how is the BSP calculated?
start there and work your way through different players invovled to achieve it, then you realise there is a method to the madness.

Value = Volume Matched (subtracted by) Implied Percentage.
Example One Horse A, Volume 18% of book - Implied Percentage @ 4.0 = 25% - 18%-25% = -7%
This horse will Steam in at +01:55 towards 3.6 or lower because the figure of -7% represents value at 4.0.

combining two stats( book% and implied percentage) and finding one correlation will only give you a one dimensional outcome . there are more possible outcomes that might escape your radar if you choose not to investigate further I.e
- you concluded that the horse will steam towards 3.6 so as to correct the imbalace (-7%) .
the volume can be increased or decreased accordingly so as to match the price, this will correct the imbalance without any significant price movement.
this is why you see low openning prices for the favourite even though the backing has not occurred yet . the market has already been structured to anticipate this move and will only correct itself when the money start arriving and the favourite does not recieve the expected support. otherwise the prices will remain low and soak in any pressure from large volumes arriving and that way volatility is kept in check.
ofcourse i might be wrong but we all to tell ourselves some fairy tales

When I opened this thread Im surprised nobody asked me what the excel file was to the left of the ladder.

i take a wild guess
its one of the tailor made indicators made to suit your trading style.
mug at betting

[Trader Pat]

Furthermore, I think the amount of money you need to constantly risk far outweighs any potentional profit. If you wanted to make an average of £150 a day your daily risk will be closer to £500 that the £150 you hope to make. One thing you never see in these forums or anywhere else is the results people make throughout the day. I dont think for one second that people are making a fortune out of this Betfair Trading but I'd say that account for 10% of traders and they are the ones who know the software inside out. Good Luck to them but the other 90% are just feeding the market.

Anybody who knows what they're doing and is making £150 a day from trading isn't risking anywhere near £500 to make it.

You have to remember this is a zero sum game so you're only ever going to get a certain amount of help. Nobody is going to walk you through it step by step, we're all in direct competition after all. You'll get lots of encouragement on the forum and some real insight but no profitable trader is going to let you look over their shoulder while they trade.

You're making the same mistakes that a lot of people make when new to the game, that's underestimating the amount of work required to become profitable and over-staking. You mentioned earlier in the thread about staking £300 on a trade when you didn't fully understand the market, that's gambling not trading. Just because you open a position and intend to close it, doesn't mean you're trading. "Trading" with a lack of understanding of the market is just gambling by a different name, that's why people stake accordingly until they have a better handle on what they're seeing.

The 9:1 ratio is probably about right but honestly what did you expect?

[wearthefoxhat]

Whoever this bot is at +01:55 it is controlling the market to such an extent its amazing to watch. By my estimate it is putting around £4-5,000 into the market over a 10 second period. The knowedge behind the set up is quite astonishing to watch.

Im past caring about what I tell people anymore. What the BOT is doing is looking at where the value is and taking a position to move towards where it thinks the price should be.

Value = Volume Matched (subtracted by) Implied Percentage.
Example One Horse A, Volume 18% of book - Implied Percentage @ 4.0 = 25% - 18%-25% = -7%
This horse will Steam in at +01:55 towards 3.6 or lower because the figure of -7% represents value at 4.0.

Reverse this for a drifter who will have a positve number, such as +7%. This is how the markets work.

Even though I have this information I still cannot make a regular profit from trading. Hopefully you can.

When I opened this thread Im surprised nobody asked me what the excel file was to the left of the ladder.

Reminds me of Nick Leeson - Rogue Trader...trying to single handedly move the market. (we know how that ended up)

Rogue.png

[Euler]

From official Betfair data, in aggregate, Bet Angel users win more than others. But that's no surprise as we focus really hard on trying to give everybody the tools they need and other items to get an edge. We focus on real trading and helping our users achieve what they wish.

If you look at the rest of the market, it's constructed around a false narrative. Ultimately, though I can't say definitively, I reckon most advanced users including Bet Angel customers win money from that user base and regular punters.

Trading is hard, but the rewards are massive.

[Euler]

The two minute bump is almost certainly a hedging activity. Like I said further up get out before it happens or learn to exploit it.

[dm1900]

Anybody who knows what they're doing and is making £150 a day from trading isn't risking anywhere near £500 to make it.

You mean they are risking FAR more than £500 right? Anyways this doesn't make much sense, your risk : profit ratio is determined by the odds you bet at.

[Kai]

Just goes to show how a simple little image of a market can spark up a decent discussion, can only imagine the amount of feedback a newbie clip of a failed trade would produce etc, which was suggested in the other thread.

But it's a double-edged sword in a way, longer term it would likely raise the bar for most people and it would be more competitive and more difficult for everyone to trade, since less mistakes means less trading opportunities.

[Euler]

Anybody who knows what they're doing and is making £150 a day from trading isn't risking anywhere near £500 to make it.

You mean they are risking FAR more than £500 right? Anyways this doesn't make much sense, your risk : profit ratio is determined by the odds you bet at.

It's a myth that you need a big bank to trade, especially on sports markets.

The markets repeat so much that you can effectively leverage your total return by recycling a trade more than once across a range of markets. So you can produce stellar returns on small amounts, it just doesn't scale well.

In terms of trading you will always use large amounts relative to your net trade profit, that's just the way it works. But you should never be risking your entire bank, or trade size. if you are, you are doing it incorrectly.

[Trader Pat]

Anybody who knows what they're doing and is making £150 a day from trading isn't risking anywhere near £500 to make it.

You mean they are risking FAR more than £500 right? Anyways this doesn't make much sense, your risk : profit ratio is determined by the odds you bet at.

An experienced trader with a bank of £500 should be able to make £150 per day on average and they would actually be risking LESS than £500 not more. Like Euler says you're only risking a fraction of your stake on any trade.

[Realrocknrolla]

Anybody who knows what they're doing and is making £150 a day from trading isn't risking anywhere near £500 to make it.

You mean they are risking FAR more than £500 right? Anyways this doesn't make much sense, your risk : profit ratio is determined by the odds you bet at.

An experienced trader with a bank of £500 should be able to make £150 per day on average and they would actually be risking LESS than £500 not more. Like Euler says you're only risking a fraction of your stake on any trade.

Absolutely possible. Do your research… FUNDAMENTALS

Find the front runners
Find the false favourites
So many OPPORTUNITIES

Wait for team sheets

Do some mathematical equations.

Learn learn learn.

Data data data

[xtrader16]

The BSP is a reflection of market effeciency and thats why the market correct itself towards the Final BSP in the last 2 mins. the bigger question is ?
how is the BSP calculated?
start there and work your way through different players invovled to achieve it, then you realise there is a method to the madness

I understand how odds are created via profiling/compling but you need to understand the form book and that, to be honest, is just too much work/time that I dont have. It is also subjective and within its own range judging on how good you are at it. I doubt it is the answer to my trading problems.