Soccer Mystic predicted odds pre-game

[craignmoss]

Hi all,

I just wanted to make sure my understanding of Soccer Mystic is correct. If you are looking at a game and then review 'match odds' there is a section that provides predicted odds. If the forecast time is on 0 minutes, am I right in assuming the predicted odds are the expected odds at the start of the event? If so, does anyone have an insight into how this is calculated? I saw one the other day that was at 12 but it was predicting 9.5 (liquidity was poor) and it made me curious about how the algorithms might work.

Thanks,

Craig

[ShaunWhite]

it made me curious about how the algorithms might work.

Good question. You'd be nuts to follow any indicator without knowing how it's been derived yet people seem to use SM without any knowledge of it. Or do they? Is there any evdence that anyone actually uses SM profitably, and if it is a good indicator then why aren't the values passed to Guardian?

[Trader Pat]

Hi all,

I just wanted to make sure my understanding of Soccer Mystic is correct. If you are looking at a game and then review 'match odds' there is a section that provides predicted odds. If the forecast time is on 0 minutes, am I right in assuming the predicted odds are the expected odds at the start of the event? If so, does anyone have an insight into how this is calculated? I saw one the other day that was at 12 but it was predicting 9.5 (liquidity was poor) and it made me curious about how the algorithms might work.

Thanks,

Craig

Quite an old video but explains how Soccer Mystic works

https://youtu.be/_pqkJJ9m5mU

[craignmoss]

Quite an old video but explains how Soccer Mystic works

https://youtu.be/_pqkJJ9m5mU
[/quote]

Thanks Pat, I've seen this but it doesn't explain how predicted odds are calculated.

[craignmoss]

it made me curious about how the algorithms might work.

Good question. You'd be nuts to follow any indicator without knowing how it's been derived yet people seem to use SM without any knowledge of it. Or do they? Is there any evdence that anyone actually uses SM profitably, and if it is a good indicator then why aren't the values passed to Guardian?

Totally Shaun. I'm still learning the platform and can see how SM could be useful but I need to know more first.

[Dallas]

Hi all,

I just wanted to make sure my understanding of Soccer Mystic is correct. If you are looking at a game and then review 'match odds' there is a section that provides predicted odds. If the forecast time is on 0 minutes, am I right in assuming the predicted odds are the expected odds at the start of the event? If so, does anyone have an insight into how this is calculated? I saw one the other day that was at 12 but it was predicting 9.5 (liquidity was poor) and it made me curious about how the algorithms might work.

Thanks,

Craig

Its modelled from historic prices of tens of thousands of markets, but for obvious reasons the exact algorithm won't ever be publicly published.
It relies on data from certain markets which need to be well formed for it to make accurate predictions, so there may be a deviation in some matches but over the long term is accurate to within a few percent.

However BF dropped one of the markets it required about a year or so ago so some slight adjustments were (quickly) made to the model so it can continue produce as accurate predictions as possible and be used.

It is in the process of having a major update having not had one done in several years and well before the automation tool was at its current level, so once the underlying model is updated, enhanced and it can give real time predictions in-play etc there will almost certainly be conditions and stored values etc added that can test the values it displays.

[craignmoss]

Thanks Dalllas, that makes sense and I understand why you can't give the exact details. Looking forward to seeing the update when it's released!

[Archery1969]

Hi all,

I just wanted to make sure my understanding of Soccer Mystic is correct. If you are looking at a game and then review 'match odds' there is a section that provides predicted odds. If the forecast time is on 0 minutes, am I right in assuming the predicted odds are the expected odds at the start of the event? If so, does anyone have an insight into how this is calculated? I saw one the other day that was at 12 but it was predicting 9.5 (liquidity was poor) and it made me curious about how the algorithms might work.

Thanks,

Craig

Its modelled from historic prices of tens of thousands of markets, but for obvious reasons the exact algorithm won't ever be publicly published.
It relies on data from certain markets which need to be well formed for it to make accurate predictions, so there may be a deviation in some matches but over the long term is accurate to within a few percent.

However BF dropped one of the markets it required about a year or so ago so some slight adjustments were (quickly) made to the model so it can continue produce as accurate predictions as possible and be used.

It is in the process of having a major update having not had one done in several years and well before the automation tool was at its current level, so once the underlying model is updated, enhanced and it can give real time predictions in-play etc there will almost certainly be conditions and stored values etc added that can test the values it displays.

Nice on Dallas.

[firlandsfarm]

if it is a good indicator then why aren't the values passed to Guardian?

I don't use Sm but along with the reason why people keep their betting/trading activity details close to their chest the easier it is to use the more it will be used resulting in a degrading of the edge it seeks to provide! By all means review the algorithms but linking it to Guardian would be a retrograde step,

[wearthefoxhat]

if it is a good indicator then why aren't the values passed to Guardian?

I don't use Sm but along with the reason why people keep their betting/trading activity details close to their chest the easier it is to use the more it will be used resulting in a degrading of the edge it seeks to provide! By all means review the algorithms but linking it to Guardian would be a retrograde step,

Soccer Mystic was one of the USP's for me when looking at Bet-Angel years ago. (The others were the dutching and the IP Trader tools) Since then it has a boat-load of extra stuff that makes is a go-to piece of software.

The concept of helping to predict a trades' position when something in the game occurs is a powerful piece on information to help plan a strategy. I always thought...what if it could be automated in some way with bet placements/trades. Apparently it did?

SM.png

Did I miss a trick there?

[ShaunWhite]

if it is a good indicator then why aren't the values passed to Guardian?

I don't use Sm but along with the reason why people keep their betting/trading activity details close to their chest the easier it is to use the more it will be used resulting in a degrading of the edge it seeks to provide! By all means review the algorithms but linking it to Guardian would be a retrograde step,

You can give 10 people the same info and only one will make it pay. And tbh there's not going to be anyone using SM who's likely to make even a tiny dent in the footy markets. If you're shifting a lot of money then you aren't doing with a model you don't understand.