Tennis - Lost My Mojo!

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Sushi
Posts: 21
Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2009 12:35 pm

I got introduced to this whole world early this year when Wimbledon was on. I discovered the ability to trade bets by chance, looked into it and here I am.

Within a week I had went from about £50 to over £800 - and that was just using the Betfair website!

Then something went wrong. I learned too much! I bought BetAngel, started trying the pre-race horse markets, writing Excel spreadsheets to automate the whole thing and was up and down as I tried to perfect an unattended money making machine!

All, I thought, safe in the knowledge that I could build the bank back up with Tennis trading should I need to.

I went back to Tennis during the US Open and something had changed - I knew too much! My ignorance to certain risk factors before was creating the perfect betting behaviour and it worked. Now I can't get back there. I wish I had stuck to what was working!

Gonna take a month or two off and try to recover my mental state!

:(
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LeTiss
Posts: 5489
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

haha typical

I'm sure most traders will also say - the bigger their bets, the less likely they seem to get it right!

Professional trading is a white knuckle ride, no doubt about it
neeeel
Posts: 70
Joined: Mon Apr 20, 2009 2:13 pm

LeTiss 4pm wrote:
I'm sure most traders will also say - the bigger their bets, the less likely they seem to get it right!
I am finding this to be so true, with me the size of bets dont even have to be big, just big relative to what I was using before. After trying to trade with £50 and £100 stakes and losing a lot of money, I went back to basics and started at minimum stakes for a while, and started to get things together. So I started raising the stakes. £4 stakes- still going fine, trading was feeling good, I was calm and focused. £7 stakes- maybe the first indications of my old trading habits, but I was still winning. £10 stakes- things fall apart, I lose all my confidence, it seems like I cant get anything right, fear creeps back into my trading.Im scared to enter trades, and scared to exit them.At least I have discovered this before reaching significant stakes so I know it needs a lot more work
Quinny
Posts: 83
Joined: Sat May 02, 2009 4:57 pm

neeeel, try this if you are having trouble with incremental staking - start with say, a £3 balance.

Make a trade. Back at £3, Lay at £3

You win maybe 0.10

Your next stake is £3.10.

you win another 0.12

So your next stake will be £3.22.

Next you having a loss of 0.06

So, your next stake is at (£3.22-0.06) £3.16

Why?

Well, I have a background in psychotherapy and a full explanation takes forever.

You will learn to stay focused on trading not staking, you will also realise (you may already know) the amazing power of compounding.
neeeel
Posts: 70
Joined: Mon Apr 20, 2009 2:13 pm

Sounds interesting.
I was increasing my stakes over weeks, not by race or during a race, to try and increase my confidence and learn to focus on the trading and not the amount.

one problem I can think of with your idea is having to calculate the next stake and entering it in betangel, which will take up trading time
Quinny
Posts: 83
Joined: Sat May 02, 2009 4:57 pm

your stake will be your existing balance from race to race. Withdraw everything else or move it to Aus. wallet.
neeeel
Posts: 70
Joined: Mon Apr 20, 2009 2:13 pm

maybe I am misunderstanding. Do you mean that i should change the stake for each trade, or for each race.
Quinny
Posts: 83
Joined: Sat May 02, 2009 4:57 pm

neeeel
I replied to this in PM
PeterLe
Posts: 3729
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

hey Quinny - good post...
I did something similar...do a google on Einstein 8th Wonder of the world...
One of my sub accounts started with 170 pounds early august (for a new strategy I was beta testing)..and increased the stake by 'just' 1% a day..its currently sitting at #2,217...(you wouldnt get that in an ISA !ha!)
Mentally it's easier to deal with because you feel that you are playing with betfairs money...Also check out the book - "Trading in the zone"
Cheers
Peter
Sushi
Posts: 21
Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2009 12:35 pm

Bizarrely, I'm having real difficulty pinning down what I was actually doing in the first place that worked so well. There was a consistent and instinctive strategy there for sure, but turning that into an x,y,z approach is tough now!

Private messages containing Tennis strategies welcome! ;)
Quinny
Posts: 83
Joined: Sat May 02, 2009 4:57 pm

Hi Peter

nice to hear from you. Are you still mainly excel focused?

In his book Mark Douglas makes the point that once you have an average understanding of markets and trading, you are or can be, as good as anyone. The difference is mindset. And that most unsuccessful traders, in order to improve their performance, try to learn more about the technicalities of trading etc. in the belief that they don't know enough in order to be profitable whereas the likelyhood is they probably know more than enough.

I understand that now.

I would hazard that he is right and most (high 90%)members on here know enough to be in profit.

For example - if it is part of your strategy to not go in running, but you still do , for whatever reason. Then you have highlighted a weakness in your mindset and no amount of studying the ins and outs of which races are scalpers or swingers will address this.

But... and it is a very big but, by focusing your attention on that (or any other) aspect of trading, you are spared having to face up to the (often painful) prospect that you are presently too weak mentally/emotionally to profit from trading at this moment in time. A strong trader accepts losses and a weak one can't.

I posted in a message a while ago that learning to lose is better than learning not to lose because if you are ever going to be profitable you will definitely have to know how to mentally manage losses.

Peter Webb has said himself that 'losing is good' and it is not just a flippant comment.

Desensitisation was a technique I used with clients when i was a therapist and you can use it when learning how to lose.

start with £5 stake and place a bet on the fav. now the second that it moves a tick, in any direction - green/red up and move on to the next race.

If you can do this through a complete Saturdays racing, you will discover something very useful about your trading mentality.

Geez, I used to get paid for this kind of advice. :roll:
Seabird
Posts: 70
Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 1:31 pm

Very sound advice.

I made a sign which I stuck on the wall in front of me, it says:

'I like incurring SMALL losses'

Slowly learning to follow that advice ALL the time.

Seabird
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