This is a question to people who have been trading for a while.
I started backing horse before the off and then laying them 2 points lower after the race started.
first of all i was just after a free bet but realised it's not very consistent hoping the chosen horse would win.
I then spread the return so no matter which horse won i would get a profit.
The problem that i have found though is when the lay part doesn't get matched it take's the good work you have done earlier in the day away.
should i stick with this and in the long run do you think i will be in the green or is inplay horse trading to risky in the long run?
is it to much like gambling?
Should i just concentrate on before the off trading?
Thanks in advance for any replies.
Inplay trading
My thoughts are to try it (using small stakes) over a good mumber of races (say a month = 800 races). Analyse you data (Use NigleK's spreadsheet as it breaks the results down by track, race length etc)...it may be that certain tracks are net negative or 5f 6f are net negative etc etc..
If you make a loss, do exactly the opposite, compare results and so on
It is unlikely that yo will get it right first time, but good luck
Regards
Peter
If you make a loss, do exactly the opposite, compare results and so on
It is unlikely that yo will get it right first time, but good luck
Regards
Peter
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
You have to think of it more from an objective point of view.
The pre race market is driven purely by money. Admittedly a horse could play up in the prelims but even then it is money that changes the price.
The in play market is a different animal and is driven by the performance of the animal. Yes, money drives the price but it does so for a different reason. If you have a front runner who has no chance of winning, or if you have an average horse that has set off too quickly then the market will quickly discount its chances. If you have a hot favourite fully expected to win but it settles in rear then the market will once again make allowances for it. Of course there will be differences in price movements but in the long run this is how it works.
If you reversed your thought process and look to lay a horse before the off I think you may see better results. I would ignore the sprints of 5/6f on the flat and look at >8f. Over the jumps it will work on almost any race.
If a horse is to shorten in price immediately after the start of the race, it basically needs to travel well, not come under pressure etc. How many times do you see that? Not that often I would suggest.
I would advise you to determine an amount you are prepared to lose and stick to it. For example, you lay a horse and it doesn't drift as you predicted. There should be a point where you close and accept the loss. Then it is a case of prices that you lay and the strike rate compared to the preset loss. If you look for £2 profit each race and will take a £1 loss if incorrect then you can get 2 wrong and 1 correct to break even. These are just example amounts and only you can determine the correct amounts.
If a horse gets left at the start in a flat race or there is a faller in a jumps race then the prices will go haywire. Some will go for you whilst others will go against you - that is the risk you take in this method.
It's not a trading strategy per se but it can work if you put the work into it.
The pre race market is driven purely by money. Admittedly a horse could play up in the prelims but even then it is money that changes the price.
The in play market is a different animal and is driven by the performance of the animal. Yes, money drives the price but it does so for a different reason. If you have a front runner who has no chance of winning, or if you have an average horse that has set off too quickly then the market will quickly discount its chances. If you have a hot favourite fully expected to win but it settles in rear then the market will once again make allowances for it. Of course there will be differences in price movements but in the long run this is how it works.
If you reversed your thought process and look to lay a horse before the off I think you may see better results. I would ignore the sprints of 5/6f on the flat and look at >8f. Over the jumps it will work on almost any race.
If a horse is to shorten in price immediately after the start of the race, it basically needs to travel well, not come under pressure etc. How many times do you see that? Not that often I would suggest.
I would advise you to determine an amount you are prepared to lose and stick to it. For example, you lay a horse and it doesn't drift as you predicted. There should be a point where you close and accept the loss. Then it is a case of prices that you lay and the strike rate compared to the preset loss. If you look for £2 profit each race and will take a £1 loss if incorrect then you can get 2 wrong and 1 correct to break even. These are just example amounts and only you can determine the correct amounts.
If a horse gets left at the start in a flat race or there is a faller in a jumps race then the prices will go haywire. Some will go for you whilst others will go against you - that is the risk you take in this method.
It's not a trading strategy per se but it can work if you put the work into it.
Your going to need a very high strike rate to make money long term with this idea, the problem is with in-play as im sure you already know you are going to lose your whole stake at some point, especially if your backing first.bigbazzer wrote:This is a question to people who have been trading for a while.
I started backing horse before the off and then laying them 2 points lower after the race started.
first of all i was just after a free bet but realised it's not very consistent hoping the chosen horse would win.
I then spread the return so no matter which horse won i would get a profit.
The problem that i have found though is when the lay part doesn't get matched it take's the good work you have done earlier in the day away.
should i stick with this and in the long run do you think i will be in the green or is inplay horse trading to risky in the long run?
is it to much like gambling?
Should i just concentrate on before the off trading?
Thanks in advance for any replies.
It's the sort of idea than you could make money for days , weeks or even months only for it to come crashing down one afternoon wiping out days / weeks of profits.
Even If it did work it's going a hell of a roller coaster thats for sure, and not everyone can keep a calm head when things are going bad, good luck
.bigbazzer,
Key to your strategy has to be Race distance and Strength of favourite.
For Sprints; do not rely on a price shortenning in order to achieve your trade. The race is simply too short for this to happen. In 5f, 6f, 7f races, the first 30 seconds are crucial! The market is very unforgiving of a horse that bolts late from the stalls, shows sluggish performance, etc.. and their price quickly drifts. This is true for 90% of the field, 90% of the time. Only the strong front runners, in the initial 30 seconds of Sprints will see their prices shorten.
For mid-distance races, 1m 4f+ you can expect some market predictability. These races last long enough for humans (semi intelligent bots) to form an opinion on a horses stamina, staying ability, temperment, jockey restraint; to read the horse's performance. Therefore, you can expect to see many horses within the field have their price shorten or drift based on perceptions.
For long-distance races 2m - 3m+, the market does not respond so erratically based on subtle signs of stamina etc. I have seen many favourites run at the back of the field for 75% of a race, but still their price does not drift more than 2! And also, the prices for the rest of the field do not vary wildly from their SP!
WRT strength of favourite. Regardless of the race distance, if you see a favourite trading at < 1.5 or even lower! Walk away, do not make any sudden movements! The market in such cases is *rarely* wrong. I have seen many, many cases were such strong favourites just eat up the rest of the field regardless of 5F or 3m+!!
So I hope this helps, happy to offer more insight if you want. <bracing myself for rebuttals>
Beanstalk
Key to your strategy has to be Race distance and Strength of favourite.
For Sprints; do not rely on a price shortenning in order to achieve your trade. The race is simply too short for this to happen. In 5f, 6f, 7f races, the first 30 seconds are crucial! The market is very unforgiving of a horse that bolts late from the stalls, shows sluggish performance, etc.. and their price quickly drifts. This is true for 90% of the field, 90% of the time. Only the strong front runners, in the initial 30 seconds of Sprints will see their prices shorten.
For mid-distance races, 1m 4f+ you can expect some market predictability. These races last long enough for humans (semi intelligent bots) to form an opinion on a horses stamina, staying ability, temperment, jockey restraint; to read the horse's performance. Therefore, you can expect to see many horses within the field have their price shorten or drift based on perceptions.
For long-distance races 2m - 3m+, the market does not respond so erratically based on subtle signs of stamina etc. I have seen many favourites run at the back of the field for 75% of a race, but still their price does not drift more than 2! And also, the prices for the rest of the field do not vary wildly from their SP!
WRT strength of favourite. Regardless of the race distance, if you see a favourite trading at < 1.5 or even lower! Walk away, do not make any sudden movements! The market in such cases is *rarely* wrong. I have seen many, many cases were such strong favourites just eat up the rest of the field regardless of 5F or 3m+!!
So I hope this helps, happy to offer more insight if you want. <bracing myself for rebuttals>
Beanstalk
Hi Beanstalk
Not sure I'd agree with that (although you could be right).
Often, you'll see a horse go heavily odds on, only for it to get gubbed. I think that what happens is that, as happens in the stock market, bubbles form as people get greedy and think there's some free money up for grabs, causing the implied odds of a win to go higher than the real odds.
That might explain why, on every horse in every race, there's lots of money waiting to be matched in-play below 2.0. Indeed, the Racing Post conducted a study a while back showing that laying at 1.01 over a particular period would have produced a 50% profit.
Jeff
Not sure I'd agree with that (although you could be right).
Often, you'll see a horse go heavily odds on, only for it to get gubbed. I think that what happens is that, as happens in the stock market, bubbles form as people get greedy and think there's some free money up for grabs, causing the implied odds of a win to go higher than the real odds.
That might explain why, on every horse in every race, there's lots of money waiting to be matched in-play below 2.0. Indeed, the Racing Post conducted a study a while back showing that laying at 1.01 over a particular period would have produced a 50% profit.
Jeff
beanstalk wrote: Regardless of the race distance, if you see a favourite trading at < 1.5 or even lower! Walk away, do not make any sudden movements! The market in such cases is *rarely* wrong. I have seen many, many cases were such strong favourites just eat up the rest of the field regardless of 5F or 3m+!!
Did they ? I'd like to read that. I had an app (bot) a few years ago that layed various markets/sports @ 1.01 and for some sports it was very profitable (Basketball, NFL, baseball), others it wasn't, horse racing being one of them. I'd be amazed if it was now possible to make a return of anything like 50% from laying 1.01 although I believe these things come in waves i.e. you might make good money for a few months laying 1.01 then everyone cottons on and starts doing it (easy to do it these days with the tools and software around, Betfair even let you 'keep' the bet as the market goes in play!That might explain why, on every horse in every race, there's lots of money waiting to be matched in-play below 2.0. Indeed, the Racing Post conducted a study a while back showing that laying at 1.01 over a particular period would have produced a 50% profit.
)but then the more people doing it and the more diffiduclt it is to get to the front of that huge queue of cash waiting down at 1.01 and you start only getting matched once the jockeys are having a shower and the result is done and dusted. So you start moving uo the ladder, 1.02, 1.03 etc hoping for the holy grail figure, all the time your losses get bigger as the lay price gets bigger until eventually you give it up as a bad job. Others do the same and the money around 1.01 gets smaller, thus giving you a chance in a few months time to sneak back in and start laying those shorties again, then others start having the same idea....Just my tuppence worth...!
Hi Talkbet
You might find this thread interesting: http://betangel.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... it=yoshiii
Jeff
You might find this thread interesting: http://betangel.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... it=yoshiii
Jeff
Talkbet wrote:I had an app (bot) a few years ago that layed various markets/sports @ 1.01 and for some sports it was very profitable (Basketball, NFL, baseba
ll), others it wasn't, horse racing being one of them.
First of all thanks for all the replies folks.
The problem i would have is deciding how much higher to back at?
with a low budget i would be laying favs or second favs at highest.
Sound's a better system for the long run.JollyGreen wrote: If you reversed your thought process and look to lay a horse before the off I think you may see better results. I would ignore the sprints of 5/6f on the flat and look at >8f. Over the jumps it will work on almost any race.
The problem i would have is deciding how much higher to back at?
with a low budget i would be laying favs or second favs at highest.