Today's Greyhounds

[smitdog]

Hello Napshnap , Really appreciate your help and thanks so much - i will have a study of the link you provided ..
In regards to the excel grid you posted with formulas etc i must admit i not quite there yet but trying hard so a couple of questions please ?
Fx Odds function - I couldn't find that in my office 365 excel ?
And i guess is there is there a spreadsheet freely available so i can click into and try and work how the formulas are constructed to convert to a final price . Also i understand and respect if it's your own IP .

Once again i really do apprecaite your time and help ..

[napshnap]

Hello Napshnap , Really appreciate your help and thanks so much - i will have a study of the link you provided ..
In regards to the excel grid you posted with formulas etc i must admit i not quite there yet but trying hard so a couple of questions please ?
Fx Odds function - I couldn't find that in my office 365 excel ?
And i guess is there is there a spreadsheet freely available so i can click into and try and work how the formulas are constructed to convert to a final price . Also i understand and respect if it's your own IP .

Once again i really do apprecaite your time and help ..

Here's link to excel file https://www.filemail.com/d/klauhunoxnhuefx

In "Horses" tab change this delimiter , (comma) to your correct format delimiter . (dot).
Let me know if there will be any other format problems.

"Fx Odds function - I couldn't find that in my office 365 excel ? "

I dont get it, what "Fx Odds", do you mean final one to the right?

Ok, let's stop flooding, pm me if really necessary.

[smitdog]

Hello Napshnap , Brillant and thanks so much for your time and help on this and that template will help me greatly ..
Also Fx Odds (insert function in excel) i found - so all ok i just didnt look hard enough ..
Time to study now.

Once again thanks so much for your help on this ..

[napshnap]

Hello Napshnap , Brillant and thanks so much for your time and help on this and that template will help me greatly ..
Also Fx Odds (insert function in excel) i found - so all ok i just didnt look hard enough ..
Time to study now.

Once again thanks so much for your help on this ..

Dont thank me, it's just my naughty lazy brain trying to avoid boring bot programing stuff at any means, now go and destroy those markets!

[wearthefoxhat]

Just trying out something with Poissin Distribution with Greyhounds.


Poisson2.png


Formulae.png


The outcome is that each greyhound gets a combination of probabilities and where their best chance of finishing in the race. That's all fine, but with greyhounds a comparison should be made of comparing the likelihood percentage of finishing in 1st or last, and an odds range to 100% created to find value for a lay or back selection.


Here's a working example of the odds output compared to the result.


example.png


In general, greyhounds can be an unreliable betting medium. In the example T6 is a clear value back bet and should be favourite. It was @7/4 and lost. However, looking at this race and others I've tested, the value is in the Laying of those that are predicted at double odds and end up favourite or second favourite at the off. In the example, that would be T4 @ 3/1, probably around 5.0 on the exchange.

In some races both 1st & 2nd Favourites have predicted double odds and both should be layed.

Have been focussing on races where there's a nap/nb bet in the press and try to see if these overbet ones can be layed if they are double odds in the calculation.

Favourites have predicted double odds ? WHat do you mean double odds ?
You mean if PD shows you 10% of chances of winning while the exchange 20% ?
What is "cumulative" in excell ?

Here's a YT video that explains "cumulative" better than me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zA7fp2s ... &index=140


Double odds = Double digit odds. So if PD converts to 10.00 odds and the selection is 1st or 2nd favourite @ <10.00 then = value lay. (Average lay odds are around 4.50)

Results so far today; +9.61

19.Aug21.png

[wearthefoxhat]

This race worked out very well today.

T4 was the favourite. T6 was the second favourite. (both layed)

T3 Won at 7/2 and was predicted to be the 2.55Fav.

Harlow10.46.png

[ilovepizza82]

Mr.Fox, Do you take into acount last 5 "number of events" (races) or more when calculating PD ?

[sniffer66]

This race worked out very well today.

T4 was the favourite. T6 was the second favourite. (both layed)

T3 Won at 7/2 and was predicted to be the 2.55Fav.


Harlow10.46.png

Even better when I got on T3 at 6.0

Capture.JPG

[MemphisFlash]

good day on the horses so far,

Capture.JPG

[wearthefoxhat]

This race worked out very well today.

T4 was the favourite. T6 was the second favourite. (both layed)

T3 Won at 7/2 and was predicted to be the 2.55Fav.


Harlow10.46.png

Even better when I got on T3 at 6.0

Capture.JPG

Nice

[wearthefoxhat]

This race worked out very well today.

T4 was the favourite. T6 was the second favourite. (both layed)

T3 Won at 7/2 and was predicted to be the 2.55Fav.


Harlow10.46.png

Even better when I got on T3 at 6.0

Capture.JPG

Nice

This one was again the 1st/2nd Fav's Layed. Although T6 was nowhere on that one.

KInsley 11.36.png

So far 13/13...

20Aug21.png

[wearthefoxhat]

Mr.Fox, Do you take into acount last 5 "number of events" (races) or more when calculating PD ?

Yep last 5.

Finishing Position - Lengths won/lost - Grade - Age - Sex

[ilovepizza82]

Thanks Mr. Fox !
How do you compare betfair odds with your pd in excell ?
Bet angel ? How to do that ?

[wearthefoxhat]

Thanks Mr. Fox !
How do you compare betfair odds with your pd in excell ?
Bet angel ? How to do that ?

I input the selections into the software once PD has been converted into odds (in green).

All double digit odds get nominated, set time to trigger before the off and odds range to lay (maria lay staking) and let the market decide on what will be the 1st/2nd favourite. If the nominated ones (double digits) match the betfair market 1st/2nd fav before the off, and within the MSL odds range, = Lay.

I also set volume matched to a minimum of £8k.

[MemphisFlash]

Gotta Love the harness reacing

Capture.JPG