Back to Lay pre off bot query

[Jimbo95]

Hi all,
I am currently running a back to lay bot on the favourite pre off however finding that 60% of races I am making a slight loss as lay price is settling slightly higher than back price. Parameters set are below:-

Sort order of favouritism time -5.10 to -5.00 before race, select number one in order
Back bet time -4.59 to 4.50 before race, trigger once wait 5 secs before rearming
Offset with greening and trailing stop
Offset 3 ticks
Stop trigger 6 ticks place at 10 ticks
Fill or kill at 120 secs

Any advice appreciated. Thanks.

[jimibt]

Hi all,
I am currently running a back to lay bot on the favourite pre off however finding that 60% of races I am making a slight loss as lay price is settling slightly higher than back price. Parameters set are below:-

Sort order of favouritism time -5.10 to -5.00 before race, select number one in order
Back bet time -4.59 to 4.50 before race, trigger once wait 5 secs before rearming
Offset with greening and trailing stop
Offset 3 ticks
Stop trigger 6 ticks place at 10 ticks
Fill or kill at 120 secs

Any advice appreciated. Thanks.

hi jimbo - altho the logic all seems sound, there are many reasons why a simple approach with such static parameters might not work.

Possible things to think about:

1. Are you targetting the same setup each time (race type, clear favourite, field size, race class etc)
2. The actual bias of the favourite may not be shortening in odds at the time that you place your bets
3. Something on course may occur at any time that sends the odds flying out (crisp packet in the wind spooking the horse etc)
4. Intel regards another runner may affect the market at any time in the final 5 mins

The above is not an exhaustive list but hopefully demonstrates that the dynamics of a single event has many variables around it that need to be factored in constantly.

If it's any solace, I've been doing this for 6-7 years now and my pre-race automations are nothing to write home about. I have come up with some pretty convoluted rules sets to factor in all sorts of data interactions and at best still approximate at 50%. One other thing to think about (which has been more succesful for me), is to look at increasing/decreasing your exposure as the odds favour your selection choice. This more than anything has led to me on occassion finding a good balance between scratch and profit.

good luck

[Jimbo95]

thanks you have made a few useful points there that I will give some thought to thanks again