Trading What I see !?

[armadillo]

I've been trying to trade horses recently and more often than not, I put a ton on and it goes the opposite way. Surely it should be 50/50, sometimes in my favour, sometimes not. It's making me wonder, is there one person who has all the money on both sides of every horse and basically controls what price is available? They're seeing me put a biggish bet down at one side so they push the price in another direction, forcing me to lay at a loss for myself and a gain for them?

Imagine if on a horse market, there's only two people. You and another person who's trying to trade but really just taking a punt and hoping it goes the right way. You could fill the market with backs and lays and make it look like lots of liquidity but really you're just waiting for a bet to come in and then e.g. if they back 2.52, you then just remake the market so only 3.14 is available to lay. That person, trying to cut their loss takes the price. Is something like that happening?

[goat68]

I've been trying to trade horses recently and more often than not, I put a ton on and it goes the opposite way. Surely it should be 50/50, sometimes in my favour, sometimes not. It's making me wonder, is there one person who has all the money on both sides of every horse and basically controls what price is available? They're seeing me put a biggish bet down at one side so they push the price in another direction, forcing me to lay at a loss for myself and a gain for them?

Imagine if on a horse market, there's only two people. You and another person who's trying to trade but really just taking a punt and hoping it goes the right way. You could fill the market with backs and lays and make it look like lots of liquidity but really you're just waiting for a bet to come in and then e.g. if they back 2.52, you then just remake the market so only 3.14 is available to lay. That person, trying to cut their loss takes the price. Is something like that happening?

That other "person" maybe just a punter, who's put £100 on at 2.52, he doesn't Lay/Hedge, horse wins, he walks away with £152 profit, happy days
Depends on how you're wanting to trade, trying watching Peter's latest video on Determining Ladder price movements, maybe what you're trying to do: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvO0nMOa_cE

[armadillo]

That other "person" maybe just a punter, who's put £100 on at 2.52, he doesn't Lay/Hedge, horse wins, he walks away with £152 profit, happy days
Depends on how you're wanting to trade, trying watching Peter's latest video on Determining Ladder price movements, maybe what you're trying to do: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvO0nMOa_cE

I wonder how many people are really punters though. Of all the gambling advertising I see on TV, never seen Betfair Exchange and even Betfair is pushing those people towards the Sportsbook. I bet most of the money is from traders trying their various strategies against each other.

[decomez6]

Imagine if on a horse market, there's only two people. You and another person who's trying to trade but really just taking a punt and hoping it goes the right way. You could fill the market with backs and lays and make it look like lots of liquidity but really you're just waiting for a bet to come in

How much does it take to manipulate the market ?
10,100,1000,10000,100000…………
Is there a difference between practice mode and live mode ?
Does your in put have an effect on the overall price ?
.I think you can minimise your losses by asking for prices rather than taking available ones. This way you start from a favourable position while influencing the price by skewing the balance in your favour.
If done perfectly, you can actually offset your bet and be the market maker !
I magine you doing business with yourself and making money in the process
Is it manipulation?

Check out this thread ,

https://forum.betangel.com/viewtopic.p ... &t=12119

[CallumPerry]

I'm excited to see an update GOAT. Routing for you! And really hoping you have a green September

[goat68]

I'm excited to see an update GOAT. Routing for you! And really hoping you have a green September

it's coming...

[goat68]

So SUCCESS a profitable month, despite "HorseBot's" efforts to scupper it, "DogBot" has been awesome:

Screenshot 2021-08-31 at 22.18.13.png

I am a bit disappointed with HorseBot though, but that's something i'm working on for September..

[goat68]

So thank you everyone that's given me guidance, i'm definitely going in the right direction.
Although having a profitable month is fantastic, albeit what most of you guys make in an afternoon!, the following progress is actually far more important:
- My understanding of ""value"" is good, and central to my strategies. I understand the issue of blatant "hedging" at t=x.
- I have developed my own "System", managing data, backtesting, forward testing, analysing, understanding, and visualizing strategies, even a spot of "pandas" LR
- Evaluating strategy backtest performance, based on "why" things might work or not... and not just fitting

[goat68]

August 2021:
544 bets
+£138 profit
That's about 25p per bet!

[rik]

just 554 bets in a month???

[goat68]

just 554 bets in a month???

Yep, although dog bot only started half way through, so it only did 3weeks

[Anbell]

Good start. How is the PoT?

[ShaunWhite]

Good start. How is the PoT?

PoT? Too basic for goaty. Now he's nailed backtesting and forward testing he really should be letting us know his PPMCC.

I was wondering about what's behind that bare number too, so I know how many trombones to book for the big parade. Could be anything from 1 to 76.

[decomez6]

So SUCCESS a profitable month, despite "HorseBot's" efforts to scupper it, "DogBot" has been awesome:

success is success! a good source of inspiration for all of us
dogs , horses , spiders , goats.....is all success.

- a good thing about the dogs - No temptation to go in-play

[goat68]

Good start. How is the PoT?

What's PoT?
PPMCC ?
Lost on me!