BSP Chart Analysis

[firlandsfarm]

Hi all, I'm posting this here because I'm not putting this forward as a serious theory, but comments would be welcomed.

I was idly playing with some data that included a Favourites BSP graph when I thought I would look at it as a Financial Chart (let me point out I am not a financial chartist ... I just draw lines to fit what I seem to see! ). Could it really be that chartist theory can be applied to BSP?

Does the success or otherwise of previous favourites have a (maybe subconscious) effect on the price (popularity) of future favourites. Does 'the crowd' like/dislike favourites because of how successful they have seen them to be and influence the prices until they have become so influenced that they move into the realms of 'value'.

Could it be that Betfair review the BSP formula over time, the changes in trends are quite significant.

The graph is the return (no commission) on backing all favourites for 1 point since 01/01/2016 to date, GB and Ireland. all race types, all everything ... no filters.

Favourites.png

[Euler]

From a psychological perspective, I picked up on something similar quite a few years ago. The market seems to like or dislike favourites in a cycle. One of the problems you have is differing race types and seasonality also play a role.

So extracting the signal from the noise is important.

[firlandsfarm]

From a psychological perspective, I picked up on something similar quite a few years ago. The market seems to like or dislike favourites in a cycle. One of the problems you have is differing race types and seasonality also play a role.

So extracting the signal from the noise is important.

I agree, that was just an unintended first draft and interested me sufficiently to post it and see what comments it might elicit. The problem I give myself when splitting it down with various filters (race type, handicap?, runners, class etc.etc.) is the more you divide the smaller each sample and that increases my doubt!