Martingale Challenge

[Kai]

I think it's become clear now that this is a wind-up. He hasn't staked a penny.

Who knows Either that or I guess he lost 20k Turkish lira (around 1600 pounds).

But like Gaz pointed out, it's a good example of the Dunning-Kruger effect, which is something that can easily happen to all of us, no matter how smart or experienced we are in some fields, there will always be areas where we are incompetent idiots

"The Dunning-Kruger effect is a type of cognitive bias in which people believe that they are smarter and more capable than they really are. Essentially, low ability people do not possess the skills needed to recognize their own incompetence. The combination of poor self-awareness and low cognitive ability leads them to overestimate their own capabilities. The term lends a scientific name and explanation to a problem that many people immediately recognize—that fools are blind to their own foolishness."

[agog]

Good points Derek27 and Kai. I suppose I find it difficult to believe that anyone could risk real money on a system that has flopped so badly, in theory, only the day before but, as you say Kai, a fool is blind to his own foolishness....

[Derek27]

Good points Derek27 and Kai. I suppose I find it difficult to believe that anyone could risk real money on a system that has flopped so badly, in theory, only the day before but, as you say Kai, a fool is blind to his own foolishness....

I can relate to his thinking in a sense because I've sometimes been pissed out of my brains, yet determined to finish the piece of code I was writing when common sense would say I would save a lot of time if I left it till the next day.

He may have been thinking of the Rolls Royce he was going to buy as his second car, a luxury mansion and a life of leisure. To a dreamer like him, losing his dream would be to a realist like losing everything he really has and living on the streets - you can't believe it's happening.

Even people daft enough to use the Martingale have enough sense to start with £1 stakes on an even-money chance. But not him. Starting with £100 stakes is like starting off on a 6/7 losing run. Odds around 3.5 - 4.5 as well.

[Kai]

Even people daft enough to use the Martingale have enough sense to start with £1 stakes on an even-money chance. But not him. Starting with £100 stakes is like starting off on a 6/7 losing run. Odds around 3.5 - 4.5 as well.

At those prices especially, you're just asking to go on a bad run SOONER rather than later. It's a good point actually Derek, not only was this a terrible idea, the execution of it was somehow even worse!

And when you combine terrible ideas with terrible execution you should not be surprised at such an extreme outcome.

KAHIN'S MARTINGALE SYSTEM/ALGORITHM RESULTS

Day 1: £294 profit; Overall: £294 PROFIT

Day 2: £25,500 loss; Overall: £25,206 LOSS

Day 3/4: £20,400 loss; Overall: £45,606 LOSS

But what OP still remarkably fails to understand despite countless warnings is that he can't possibly prove us wrong, even if he gets every bet spot on. Why? Because math Unless he can change the basic laws of math and bend them to his will then it's nothing but a fool's errand. I'm terrible at math as well but I still knew that his chance of failure was 100%. Don't even try winning a war against math OP

Try to see the funny side of it instead Kahin, learn from your mistakes and move on, there's not a single person here that hasn't done something stupid at some point in their life.

[Derek27]

Reminds me of a betting book to help the shop punter where the theme was you are at war with the bookie and the bookie was referred to as the enemy. That sort of mindset tells you everything you need to know about the author and his knowledge of betting. It was probably full of "back 6/4 favs in races where the second fav is 4/1+, doubles, Yankees, etc".

[ODPaul82]

Reminds me of a betting book to help the shop punter where the theme was you are at war with the bookie and the bookie was referred to as the enemy. That sort of mindset tells you everything you need to know about the author and his knowledge of betting. It was probably full of "back 6/4 favs in races where the second fav is 4/1+, doubles, Yankees, etc".

I didn't know bodger had learnt to write

[tonyburn]

I'm translating
ı m not lazy
only ı m brave
1 person in this forum is not brave
life loves risk takers
do you understand derek27

I understand what you're saying but you're talking bollocks. You're not brave, you're stupid. You've just blown 20K and everybody on this forum told you it was stupid. If you took advice you would have still had that 20K.

Life doesn't favour risk-takers, it favours people with good judgement of whether a risk is worth taking, and that's something you don't have, as yesterday proves.

why are you so aggressive
look we have a proverb
oil gushes out of the ground

You like a proverb? "A fool and his money are soon parted" whaddya reckon to that one

[Derek27]

... learn from your mistakes and move on, there's not a single person here that hasn't done something stupid at some point in their life.

I'll put my hand up to that. When I was 13 I was planning on becoming rich when I'm older by using a combination of my then knowledge of horse racing and a Martingale staking plan. I even worked out an equation to calculate the stake to recover your losses plus intended profit taking into account the 10% betting tax of the time. The algebra involved pushed my maths to the limit, but I still lacked the understanding of the obvious.

[gazuty]

... learn from your mistakes and move on, there's not a single person here that hasn't done something stupid at some point in their life.

I'll put my hand up to that. When I was 13 I was planning on becoming rich when I'm older by using a combination of my then knowledge of horse racing and a Martingale staking plan. I even worked out an equation to calculate the stake to recover your losses plus intended profit taking into account the 10% betting tax of the time. The algebra involved pushed my maths to the limit, but I still lacked the understanding of the obvious.

+1

The martingale system occurs to almost every person independently at some stage in their journey (if they spend more than 30 seconds thinking about how to make money from gambling). Very often its stikes those who look at red/black on roullette (and its often combined with recency bias of watching 28 blacks/ reds in a row). Of course its not at the front of one's brain that 2^28 is a large number. In the pre-pandemic world you could visit casino's and watch martingale live - you see the poor sucker marking the red/blacks with a pencil on a hand held cardboard card handed out by the casino. It was super sad.

[decomez6]

... learn from your mistakes and move on, there's not a single person here that hasn't done something stupid at some point in their life.

I'll put my hand up to that. When I was 13 I was planning on becoming rich when I'm older by using a combination of my then knowledge of horse racing and a Martingale staking plan. I even worked out an equation to calculate the stake to recover your losses plus intended profit taking into account the 10% betting tax of the time. The algebra involved pushed my maths to the limit, but I still lacked the understanding of the obvious.

+1

The martingale system occurs to almost every person independently at some stage in their journey (if they spend more than 30 seconds thinking about how to make money from gambling). Very often its stikes those who look at red/black on roullette (and its often combined with recency bias of watching 28 blacks/ reds in a row). Of course its not at the front of one's brain that 2^28 is a large number. In the pre-pandemic world you could visit casino's and watch martingale live - you see the poor sucker marking the red/blacks with a pencil on a hand held cardboard card handed out by the casino. It was super sad.

used to play roulette at the aspers casino stratford westfield . once saw a 23 red in a row ..... 6 hits on the same dozen.(1st).
went ahead to cover all the blacks in the 2nd , 3rd dozen and the zero.
and guess what the zero played after two spins followed by 3 more reds !!!
those are 28 reds in total ! seperated by 0 on a game of 50/50.
martingale is like a precision tool ,to be used at the right moment when the maths is on your side,

i ve made many mistakes along the martingale route as well as learnt my lessons the hard way. its for big bankers with patience and no pressure to pay rent

where is kahin's maths guy ?

[Euler]

The most amazing thing I ever saw in a Casino was the same number come up five times in a row. They closed the table!

[decomez6]

The most amazing thing I ever saw in a Casino was the same number come up five times in a row. They closed the table!

devils game.PNG

666 66__?

[Kai]

I suppose I find it difficult to believe that anyone could risk real money on a system that has flopped so badly, in theory, only the day before but, as you say Kai, a fool is blind to his own foolishness....

Well, I guess the sad truth is that confidence often stems from ignorance, rather than knowledge. It's like someone once said, the confidence of ignorance will always overcome the indecision of knowledge. I suppose you only need to look at the state of the world right now to see whether this feels true or no

Obviously we all have the right to be stupid and do stupid things, but it DOESN'T mean we should abuse this privilege

[MobiusGrey]

...Obviously we all have the right to be stupid and do stupid things, but it DOESN'T mean we should abuse this privilege

"Stupid is as stupid does"

[Kuzikeri]

He won't listen to any of you
I think he's going to sell his car and build a martingale
Because he is Turkish
will fight
I understand the KAHİN
He's fighting himself