Trading What I see !?

[napshnap]

Goat, keep in mind that some venues have slower video (ATR covered) than others and it can influence price action.

that's an interesting point, thanks

It's not like that I've made a big serious scientific research, no, it's mainly coming from my experience, for example, I find RUK covered jump racing way more volatile in a later stage than ATR covered one.
And there is a lot of talking (on bf forum) about how shitty ATR live-video is.

[goat68]

I have NO bots running live now, and don't intend to until I am more confident

First job is understanding how/why you misinterpreted the other backtests, then you can start to have confidence in them. It would be demoralising to make the same mistakes again.

I think I realise it doesn't take as much as I thought to "fit" even over 4months of data. For example if price >1.7 <3.7, a simple price range, although quite specific can easily fit a trigger to 4months I now believe.

[goat68]

I'm doing some logical inplay ideas around what I mentioned above, playing over a 1 month sample for analysis.
I've got one that maybe interesting, i'm going to play through a second larger sample.

[wearthefoxhat]

Thinking about it, inplay it's mostly random price jumps based on what's happening, so to find an "edge" you'd need some "extra" info that not everyone else has eg:
- GPS location and low bet latency
"fundamental" analysis pre-race which might give you an edge on how the race might run
I think trying to find something based "purely" on price action is near nigh impossible.
So I am going to try some "web scraping" maybe!

Something on those lines.

Pre-market sometimes over reacts anticipating what may happen during a race. Then any decision automated/semi automated should be looking to see what is actually happening. If different to what should be happening, ie: Change of tactics by trainer/jockey, bad luck at the start, then this will be a potential edge.

Also, there are pegs placed at certain points willing to be matched irrespective of how the race is panning out and can distort the IP flow.

So your research may be right but cannot account for a crazy order placed that might throw the figures out. Fortunately, these are few and far between.

I've also noticed an increase in IP activity over the last 12 months+

[arch4672]

Thinking about it, inplay it's mostly random price jumps based on what's happening, so to find an "edge" you'd need some "extra" info that not everyone else has eg:
- GPS location and low bet latency
- "fundamental" analysis pre-race which might give you an edge on how the race might run
I think trying to find something based "purely" on price action is near nigh impossible.
So I am going to try some "web scraping" maybe!

They're not random price movements and you don't need any extra info. It's not impossible to find something just based on price action.

[goat68]

Being testing trying Dallas's scalping the fav in first 25% of race: viewtopic.php?f=52&t=24368
but long term backtests show it quite -EV...
must admit I can't seem logically why it would be thought as profitable anyway?
The really -EV part of it is when the Back bets match but the 3tick green doesn't...
Why would a "price gap" be a desirable trigger?

[goat68]

These strategies usually need targeting at specific markets, which type of markets would it better apply to? this is inplay mayhem, what's going to be the driving factor?

[goat68]

Any profitable traders need your latest great idea backtesting? PM me the details and i'll backtest it for you?!

[goat68]

Hmmm, am I? "person of inferior emotional balance"
what does that even mean?

[Trader Pat]

Being testing trying Dallas's scalping the fav in first 25% of race: viewtopic.php?f=52&t=24368
but long term backtests show it quite -EV...
must admit I can't seem logically why it would be thought as profitable anyway?
The really -EV part of it is when the Back bets match but the 3tick green doesn't...
Why would a "price gap" be a desirable trigger?

If you back-tested all of the bots on the forum I'd be surprised if they weren't all -EV. But they're not supposed to be plug and play profit generators, they're only a guide to what's possible with the software and to give ideas on possible strategies.

Sorry to see your bots take a negative downturn but as I said early on if the majority of your bots P&L's look like a ski slope then there's something fundamentally wrong with your approach. Over the past few months I've had 7 new bots on the go, 5 of them are looking break even and not very interesting, 2 are looking like definite loss makers and only 1 looks worthy of exploring further. Having said all that I'll keep them all going for another few months to be sure and only then will I make a decision on them.

I've said it before but imo you're at a disadvantage if trying to go fully auto without any significant time manually in the market behind you. Its very hard to find any kind of edge but especially if relying mostly on back-testing.

Hope it turns around for you though. As I've said to you before I really admire your attitude and if nothing else this thread has helped others I'm sure of that.

[The Silk Run]

Your a GOOD Angel Pat. That's a very pleasant and inspiring response for all levels of ability, even me ...

[goat68]

Being testing trying Dallas's scalping the fav in first 25% of race: viewtopic.php?f=52&t=24368
but long term backtests show it quite -EV...
must admit I can't seem logically why it would be thought as profitable anyway?
The really -EV part of it is when the Back bets match but the 3tick green doesn't...
Why would a "price gap" be a desirable trigger?

If you back-tested all of the bots on the forum I'd be surprised if they weren't all -EV. But they're not supposed to be plug and play profit generators, they're only a guide to what's possible with the software and to give ideas on possible strategies.

Sorry to see your bots take a negative downturn but as I said early on if the majority of your bots P&L's look like a ski slope then there's something fundamentally wrong with your approach. Over the past few months I've had 7 new bots on the go, 5 of them are looking break even and not very interesting, 2 are looking like definite loss makers and only 1 looks worthy of exploring further. Having said all that I'll keep them all going for another few months to be sure and only then will I make a decision on them.

I've said it before but imo you're at a disadvantage if trying to go fully auto without any significant time manually in the market behind you. Its very hard to find any kind of edge but especially if relying mostly on back-testing.

Hope it turns around for you though. As I've said to you before I really admire your attitude and if nothing else this thread has helped others I'm sure of that.

Thanks for your very honest post, much appreciated.
Yes, i've come to realise ski-slopes are most likely "fitted" ! The thing i've most learnt from that, is how little it actually takes to "fit", it's surprising.
I also, agree on your view of trying to go auto with not much manual in the bag, I could maybe try trading some evening markets, but not sure i'll get many hours in doing that in reality.

[goat68]

I'm a bit stubborn when it comes to admitting defeat, but I suspect that point may come soon as reality of how hard this is sinks in....

[goat68]

I do feel as though inplay horses is like playing in a random very noise price market, which then makes you think how the hell can you make a profit from it...!
I don't think I am going to find anything by guesswork and random backtests!

[goat68]

I mean i'm trying all sorts of variations around inplay price gaps, but then it's just guessing, what edge is there with any variation on a gap trigger?