Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

As you can see by my trend, it's just guesswork and testing....
ie.why isn't this profitable? maybe just adding WoM might make it!

[goat68]

Just looking at Peter's recent dobbing videos and just look at the number of people requesting Peter do a selection process video, every man, woman and dog..!!

[Tetras]

I'm fairly sure i'm just missing the "secret sauce" on "value any time", mainly because I can't really see why it would work.
Imagine "offering" bets say 2-3 ticks out then cancelling them if unmatched after 5 seconds, on every runner, and repeat... Why would that work? so price gets taken say on one selection, but that's only because price has slipped 3ticks on another...why would it suddenly be "value" ?

From my perspective that's exactly the kind of thinking you need to be profitable, that is the secret sauce, to always ask "why do I have any advantage here?" and if you can't answer the question, it's not a winner. Your job as a trader is to find any/all scenarios that you can answer that question.

[goat68]

I'm fairly sure i'm just missing the "secret sauce" on "value any time", mainly because I can't really see why it would work.
Imagine "offering" bets say 2-3 ticks out then cancelling them if unmatched after 5 seconds, on every runner, and repeat... Why would that work? so price gets taken say on one selection, but that's only because price has slipped 3ticks on another...why would it suddenly be "value" ?

From my perspective that's exactly the kind of thinking you need to be profitable, that is the secret sauce, to always ask "why do I have any advantage here?" and if you can't answer the question, it's not a winner. Your job as a trader is to find any/all scenarios that you can answer that question.

Exactly, hence why I moved onto other ideas...

[goat68]

I'm fairly sure i'm just missing the "secret sauce" on "value any time", mainly because I can't really see why it would work.
Imagine "offering" bets say 2-3 ticks out then cancelling them if unmatched after 5 seconds, on every runner, and repeat... Why would that work? so price gets taken say on one selection, but that's only because price has slipped 3ticks on another...why would it suddenly be "value" ?

From my perspective that's exactly the kind of thinking you need to be profitable, that is the secret sauce, to always ask "why do I have any advantage here?" and if you can't answer the question, it's not a winner. Your job as a trader is to find any/all scenarios that you can answer that question.

Although maybe im just not clever enough to know it !

[goat68]

You see "valueanytime", doesn't make a lot of sense to me, but what does is value at certain times. For example, value signals are probably more consistent about 1minute or so aftef the previous race has finished, ie,volume and wom driven by people with large opinions entering market.. that makes sense.

[Tetras]

I'm fairly sure i'm just missing the "secret sauce" on "value any time", mainly because I can't really see why it would work.
Imagine "offering" bets say 2-3 ticks out then cancelling them if unmatched after 5 seconds, on every runner, and repeat... Why would that work? so price gets taken say on one selection, but that's only because price has slipped 3ticks on another...why would it suddenly be "value" ?

From my perspective that's exactly the kind of thinking you need to be profitable, that is the secret sauce, to always ask "why do I have any advantage here?" and if you can't answer the question, it's not a winner. Your job as a trader is to find any/all scenarios that you can answer that question.

Exactly, hence why I moved onto other ideas...

If you can expand on the things that do work and the things that don't, that will give you more ideas and my impression of what Shaun said is that you've got a wealth of data and experience already and when you start again, you've got to go back to square one and figure out all the variables all over again. For example: I don't really do any BTL or LTB apart from a few sneaky ones, because I know nearly nothing about it. It's not just exploring a new idea, it's like the trader equivalent of a rocket scientist deciding over night they'll be a vet.

[goat68]

From my perspective that's exactly the kind of thinking you need to be profitable, that is the secret sauce, to always ask "why do I have any advantage here?" and if you can't answer the question, it's not a winner. Your job as a trader is to find any/all scenarios that you can answer that question.

Exactly, hence why I moved onto other ideas...

If you can expand on the things that do work and the things that don't, that will give you more ideas and my impression of what Shaun said is that you've got a wealth of data and experience already and when you start again, you've got to go back to square one and figure out all the variables all over again. For example: I don't really do any BTL or LTB apart from a few sneaky ones, because I know nearly nothing about it. It's not just exploring a new idea, it's like the trader equivalent of a rocket scientist deciding over night they'll be a vet.

Yeah, sort of realized that, it's like taking a break really, but whether i go back to being a rocket scientist im not sure, as i cant see through the black hole at the moment......!

[Tetras]

You see "valueanytime", doesn't make a lot of sense to me, but what does is value at certain times. For example, value signals are probably more consistent about 1minute or so aftef the previous race has finished, ie,volume and wom driven by people with large opinions entering market.. that makes sense.

It does yes, but it depends how you trade. For example: if your 'thing' is to make money in markets that haven't established themselves yet (like... Irish), then you adjust how you trade to cope with the uncertainty. So... 1-tick scalping 5 minutes out is probably going to empty your account On other hand, there's also a huge opportunity, because if you have some way of either (or all three): knowing where the money will land, minimising exposure to losses, ensuring profits outweigh the losses, then poorly formed markets can be a great money spinner.

The perspective of automation I assume is a little different, because you're looking for a high level of consistency (in signals, in value) that can be automated.

That's why I don't do BTL/LTB, because I don't know the parameters for any of those things, so I can't guarantee I will be getting any value from my selections.

[wearthefoxhat]

You see "valueanytime", doesn't make a lot of sense to me, but what does is value at certain times. For example, value signals are probably more consistent about 1minute or so aftef the previous race has finished, ie,volume and wom driven by people with large opinions entering market.. that makes sense.

Do you think there's a "value-perfect" set up that gets you into/out of a trade if the Volume/WOM/Liquidity all align?
(My answer is yes&no. The use of a scratch trade or small loss should be used when the value-perfect set up disappears)

What is your own perception of value?
(My answer is depends. My estimation of what I believe to be value may be different to yours and the attributes you employ)

Are other traders/bettors better as forming an opinon of where the value is?
(My answer is Yes&No. By specialising in a market yes, in all markets no.

Just one observation in your post. If you wait for people/a person with large opinions to enter a market, it maybe too late. They in effect control where the market goes and your going along for the ride. You need to anticipate where the large opinons will enter and get ahead of them.

[Euler]

My recommendation to most people is not to get too complicated. All I'm ever doing is trying to get two or more orders matched at different prices. Essentially that's all I'm doing.

I looks for edges in that though, strategy, tactics, execution etc.

We are just exiting the flat season and seeing lots of new horse horses over the jumps. So a selection process is required. Unraced maidens versus competitive well establish handicaps are chalk and cheese from a trading perspective.

Trying to fit a strategy that works on both things at opposite ends of the scale, is almost impossible.

[waywyrd]

Hi Goat68,

I've no idea what other members think of this course, but if you want to go back to the real basics of pre-race trading, this may or may not help.

https://www.bfscalper.com/

Waywyrd.

[Trader Pat]

Hi Goat68,

I've no idea what other members think of this course, but if you want to go back to the real basics of pre-race trading, this may or may not help.

https://www.bfscalper.com/

Waywyrd.

I wouldn't advise anyone to pay £90 (or 60, 50, 40, 30, 20 or even a tenner) to 'learn' how to trade from some no name (literally no name to say who is behind the course) website. The voice on the video sounds vaguely familiar though. There used to be a guy doing the rounds when I started trading and he was selling DVD's of him trading live over the course of a couple of months for £400 or £500.

For the record I've yet to see any paid courses or ebooks that come close to what's available for free on the Bet Angel YouTube channel.

[Emmson]

Hi Goat68,

I've no idea what other members think of this course, but if you want to go back to the real basics of pre-race trading, this may or may not help.

https://www.bfscalper.com/

Waywyrd.

I wouldn't advise anyone to pay £90 (or 60, 50, 40, 30, 20 or even a tenner) to 'learn' how to trade from some no name (literally no name to say who is behind the course) website. The voice on the video sounds vaguely familiar though. There used to be a guy doing the rounds when I started trading and he was selling DVD's of him trading live over the course of a couple of months for £400 or £500.

For the record I've yet to see any paid courses or ebooks that come close to what's available for free on the Bet Angel YouTube channel.

The best advice anywhere by a huge factor imo is actually on this site if you're prepared to look for it.

[Realrocknrolla]

Hi Goat68,

I've no idea what other members think of this course, but if you want to go back to the real basics of pre-race trading, this may or may not help.

https://www.bfscalper.com/

Waywyrd.

I wouldn't advise anyone to pay £90 (or 60, 50, 40, 30, 20 or even a tenner) to 'learn' how to trade from some no name (literally no name to say who is behind the course) website. The voice on the video sounds vaguely familiar though. There used to be a guy doing the rounds when I started trading and he was selling DVD's of him trading live over the course of a couple of months for £400 or £500.

For the record I've yet to see any paid courses or ebooks that come close to what's available for free on the Bet Angel YouTube channel.

https://www.office-serv.co.uk/virtual-packages

Virtual Office address.