Who are the losers?

[Steev]

For certain people to be making money they must be an equal amount of money being lost. What types of user do you think are losing the most money? Do you think most Betfair users are your average Joe punter who's just interested in having a flutter or are the successful traders making most of their money from the unsuccessful traders?

[Euler]

If you look at the matched bet volume on exchanges you would have to point the finger at the former. But some of the biggest and lowest risk winners are in fact very shrewd punters who are exploiting non stats based inefficiencies. I think they suck more out of the system than traders who provide a lot of liquidity for a tiny cut of the over all % lost.

[Yantraman]

by "non stats based inefficiencies" do you mean punters creating exaggerated moves in the market in anticipation of what might happen (such as you see in - play)?

This is interesting to me as I have been spending a lot of time recording exaggerated moves in the markets (in-play)

[JollyGreen]

I would imagine he means punters who are able to get a price larger to back or lower to lay as a result of a knee jerk market trend.

[Yantraman]

I see - but punters who price up their own markets and know where real value lies are using stats in the first place, surely?

[Euler]

'Information' in its many different forms, was what I was referring to.

[SpikeyBob]

I would also add that although this is really talking about successful vs unsuccessful traders/gamblers. Even the successful ones don't win on every market entered.

Peter may make money on a market that another trader wins and vice versa. On an average day I personally probably lose on 25%+ horse markets. Even the pro's don't win every market.

Also with something like football, you have several markets whereby you can hedge your trades, so you may win £100 on the Correct Score Market, but lose £50 on the U2.5 market for example. You are still up £50 (minus commission).

So we all lose, it's just a case of winning more than you lose at the end of the day.

[rubysglory]

it's just a case of winning more than you lose at the end of the day.

Well said Spikey. " every body wins - just some lose more than others." This is one of two important lessons that a bookmaker friend of mine taught me many years ago. Lesson two was "knowing what can win is not important, it's knowing what can't."

rg

[JollyGreen]

It's very true that you cannot win every market. Just look at the thread I posted about Market Muppets. I was winning big style on that market and Peter openly admitted he got his arse whipped. I doubt very much it was me holding the whip but it does show that in a small sample size i.e. this forum, two friends who trade full time can have the opposite result on the same market.

I also know that in another market where I got my arse well and truly whipped, Peter had a great result.

As SpikeyBob correctly stated it is how much you win at the end of the session.

[gutuami]

if you are a gambler you're buying a result, if you are a trader you're buying a move. From that aspect there are no losers as both know from the start that it's more or less a risky game and this type of market does not have a refund policy.

[Euler]

this type of market does not have a refund policy.

Love that quote!

Going back to the original 'losers' debate. Some people are on the exchange simply because they want a better price so, yes, they lose a little to the person on the other side but they gain from the better pricing. It doesn't have to always been seen as a lose / win scenario.