Trading What I see !?

[Euler]

I struggle mentally with repeated "failure", I do enjoy the automated scripting, there must be something that works! The Betfair chief engineer stated 75% of their volume is "bots" in a recent video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tyhx3FNCogA), which means the majority of that 75% must lose! It's interesting how profitability is a fight to take money off each other, doesn't sound healthy in reality! Why can't the whole world just adopt the "Star Trek" no-money model?!

In 2003 Betfair quoted that 75% of money was driven by traders. But there was no API back then. But the last set of data I collected indicated a similar number now for API turnover. Indicating that API users, bots and trading tools account for 75% of the market. They were by far more profitable that other methods.

[Kai]

In 2003 Betfair quoted that 75% of money was driven by traders.

Even in the past 5 years I've observed a visible drop-off in liquidity, despite similar volume numbers overall.

There are too many market makers and not enough market takers. And yet it feels like the volatility keeps getting bigger.

Must have been a dream to trade 10 or 15 years ago, I imagine newcomers needing more time nowadays due to markets getting more competitive, even though there's a bit more information on offer.

[Euler]

Since the Paddy Power 'merger,' there seems to have been an effort to push mug punters to higher-margin products. So I think that's what you have seen in terms of a drop off in underlying liquidity.

[LeTiss]

The merger with PP was a truly catastrophic moment for the exchange.

They don't sit side by side in harmony, they are competing for the same mug punters

[goat68]

Since the Paddy Power 'merger,' there seems to have been an effort to push mug punters to higher-margin products. So I think that's what you have seen in terms of a drop off in underlying liquidity.

So less "mugs", means the traders left are competing more against themselves, and hence the smarter and more experienced traders win!

[ShaunWhite]

The merger with PP was a truly catastrophic moment for the exchange.

You might be right but the other exchanges have shown how hard it is to run a niche business without a billion dollar partner to share the overheads. Without the merger perhaps there might not even be a Betfair and they'd certainly have struggled to get licences in other territories without having any clout.

[ShaunWhite]

Since the Paddy Power 'merger,' there seems to have been an effort to push mug punters to higher-margin products. So I think that's what you have seen in terms of a drop off in underlying liquidity.

So less "mugs", means the traders left are competing more against themselves, and hence the smarter and more experienced traders win!

The best float to the top and dominate whatever business they get involved in. This wouldn't be easier with more uninformed money, it would just mean the best make even more.

Tbh if the exchange was vast it would be even harder because it would attract more capable people who aren't so interested in the current slim pickings.

[Euler]

I don't classify most people on here as Mugs though. The mugs are the people who are traditional punters who just want some easy money. Perhaps punters seeking value, arbers, bookies hedging etc. Most traders compete for that money in effect.

But that's also driven by all the 'Professional' traders out there trying to get people to buy their stuff and that creates an additional pool of liquidity in the market. This sort of applies to a lot of Betfair trading tools as well. Most Betfair trading software is quite simple and targetted at people who want a fast buck. The sort of customers that don't create any service requirements and who don't want the hassle of investing their time to getting up to the next level.

Just imagine a triangle with a wide base, narrowing to a point. The further up the triangle, the more people you probably take money from indirectly. It doesn't take much to get off the bottom.

[LeTiss]

I quite often get involved in the 'acca' on the soccer specials page.

This is an area where I think the Exchange could have challenged the Sportsbooks.....where punters have the option of asking for a price on certain multiples and see who wants to lay it and what price they'll offer.

This is where bookies clean up, especially on football markets.....traditional punters like to have trebles or 5folds etc.

[PDC]

This sort of applies to Betfair trading tools as well. Most Betfair trading software is quite simple and targetted at people who want a fast buck. The sort of customers that don't create any service requirements and who don't want the hassle of investing their time to getting up to the next level.

I don't feel that is a fair comment.

[Realrocknrolla]

I quite often get involved in the 'acca' on the soccer specials page.

This is an area where I think the Exchange could have challenged the Sportsbooks.....where punters have the option of asking for a price on certain multiples and see who wants to lay it and what price they'll offer.

This is where bookies clean up, especially on football markets.....traditional punters like to have trebles or 5folds etc.

I love an acca!

It is what Saturdays are about.

Soccer AM

Soccer Saturday

Drinking a shot of Jäger every time Kammi says “Unbelievable Jeff”

[ShaunWhite]

I love an acca!

It is what Saturdays are about.

Soccer AM

Soccer Saturday

Drinking a shot of Jäger every time Kammi says “Unbelievable Jeff”

yep it's not always about being in serious work mode. We have a £1 CS Lucky15 each on Saturdays for a bit of fun and the slim chance of having £150k to blow. And you've got to have a couple of quid for a go at the Friday Euro £100m+ even if it's a cat in hell's chance. I'll have those because value is irrelevant at 10,000+ because the prize isn't just the cash it's what you'd do with it.

[Realrocknrolla]

I love an acca!

It is what Saturdays are about.

Soccer AM

Soccer Saturday

Drinking a shot of Jäger every time Kammi says “Unbelievable Jeff”

yep it's not always about being in serious work mode. We have a £1 CS Lucky15 each on Saturdays for a bit of fun and the slim chance of having £150k to blow. And you've got to have a couple of quid for a go at the Friday Euro £100m+ even if it's a cat in hell's chance. I'll have those because value is irrelevant at 10,000+ because the prize isn't just the cash it's what you'd do with it.

Haha Shaun I spend £150m every Friday when I tell myself I am winning this week!

First stop would be a trip to the local Sunseeker office!

[Trader Pat]

A couple of months back I won 5k on the Euromillions, don't know if you have it in the UK but here in Ireland they have an Ireland only raffle included on the ticket.

When I scanned the ticket with my phone it just said I had won big!! Before I checked the numbers to see how much I'd won I sat there for a few minutes daydreaming... maybe I'd won the jackpot!

When I realised I won 'only' 5k I was dissappointed! Question is if you guys had scanned the ticket and seen the image below would you have had the same response as me or am I just a greedy bastard?!

And to make it even 'worse' out of the 10 winning raffle numbers one of them was worth €1m so I had a 1/10 chance of winning a million!

[Realrocknrolla]

A couple of months back I won 5k on the Euromillions, don't know if you have it in the UK but here in Ireland they have an Ireland only raffle included on the ticket.

When I scanned the ticket with my phone it just said I had won big!! Before I checked the numbers to see how much I'd won I sat there for a few minutes daydreaming... maybe I'd won the jackpot!

When I realised I won 'only' 5k I was dissappointed! Question is if you guys had scanned the ticket and seen the image below would you have had the same response as me or am I just a greedy bastard?!

And to make it even 'worse' out of the 10 winning raffle numbers one of them was worth €1m so I had a 1/10 chance of winning a million!

Brilliant… funny you should mention it. As similar happened to be around 8 years ago.

Was checking my tickets round a pals house. And i only had 5 numbers. At the time, I thought Id won big. To the point of running upstairs to the wife on the loo. Kicking the door open saying. “We won the lottery”

The jackpot number was in the line below and i won £1700.

We still laugh to this day about me kicking the loo door open!