Now I sound really stupid, so even an 18yr old can do this, hmmmRealrocknrolla wrote: ↑Sat Oct 30, 2021 4:52 pmFootball is easy. Even my son makes £500 a month on football! He’s 18
Trading What I see !?
but maybe you're right, ditch this horse crap... and give football a go. It's a whole different ball game!Realrocknrolla wrote: ↑Sat Oct 30, 2021 4:52 pmChange your sport? Football maybe!
Football is easy. Even my son makes £500 a month on football! He’s 18
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Realrocknrolla
- Posts: 1910
- Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm
Sounds like your overthinking everythinggoat68 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 30, 2021 4:56 pmNow I sound really stupid, so even an 18yr old can do this, hmmmRealrocknrolla wrote: ↑Sat Oct 30, 2021 4:52 pmFootball is easy. Even my son makes £500 a month on football! He’s 18
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Realrocknrolla
- Posts: 1910
- Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm
goat68 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 30, 2021 4:57 pmbut maybe you're right, ditch this horse crap... and give football a go. It's a whole different ball game!Realrocknrolla wrote: ↑Sat Oct 30, 2021 4:52 pmChange your sport? Football maybe!
Football is easy. Even my son makes £500 a month on football! He’s 18
To demonstrate how obscure i've gone, currently backtesting:
- Match a competitive race type based on runner prices
- Previous race finish 1min ago
- For runners whose total matched volume <10% of the market, find the runner whose "relative volume"(matched x price) is increased the most in the last minute, and Back it
- Hedge selection at post time.
- Match a competitive race type based on runner prices
- Previous race finish 1min ago
- For runners whose total matched volume <10% of the market, find the runner whose "relative volume"(matched x price) is increased the most in the last minute, and Back it
- Hedge selection at post time.
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The Silk Run
- Posts: 983
- Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:53 am
How about Greyhounds G, have you done any work on this genre. I have a number of winning stratergies if your interested. Of course, a donation will be required ...goat68 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 30, 2021 4:51 pmDone them all!
I have played with uk dogs, but not a huge amount, I have 5months of data as well, so yes maybe test dogs again...good idea.The Silk Run wrote: ↑Sat Oct 30, 2021 7:15 pmHow about Greyhounds G, have you done any work on this genre. I have a number of winning stratergies if your interested. Of course, a donation will be required ...
Very kind of you, but I'd rather not "cheat" myself is the way i look at it. thanks.
Dogs is interesting as you have a fixed 5/6 runners, and the outcome can be quite random, all it takes is a dog nudge into the first corner and the fav is out of it.....! That's obviously random, so no edge... Finding the "edge" is the tricky part....
Here's a backtest snippet that shows the frustration:
Week 1 Back : 36.25
Week 1 Lay : -35.83
Week 1 TOTAL : 0.42 for 130 bets
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Week 2 Back : 52.73
Week 2 Lay : -57.73
Week 2 TOTAL : -5.00 for 224 bets
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Week 3 Back : -120.00
Week 3 Lay : 119.12
Week 3 TOTAL : -0.88 for 176 bets
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Week 4 Back : 42.52
Week 4 Lay : -46.66
Week 4 TOTAL : -4.14 for 142 bets
Here you can see the Back & Lay bets for the "trade", you see how Week3 turns on its head compared to weeks 1/2/4, ie 1/2/4 the back side had value, but week 3 totally changed things with Back side hugely -EV...
Week 1 Back : 36.25
Week 1 Lay : -35.83
Week 1 TOTAL : 0.42 for 130 bets
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Week 2 Back : 52.73
Week 2 Lay : -57.73
Week 2 TOTAL : -5.00 for 224 bets
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Week 3 Back : -120.00
Week 3 Lay : 119.12
Week 3 TOTAL : -0.88 for 176 bets
-------------------------
Week 4 Back : 42.52
Week 4 Lay : -46.66
Week 4 TOTAL : -4.14 for 142 bets
Here you can see the Back & Lay bets for the "trade", you see how Week3 turns on its head compared to weeks 1/2/4, ie 1/2/4 the back side had value, but week 3 totally changed things with Back side hugely -EV...
Greyhounds have so little to go on as well, the volume is low, market formation is literally over about 2mins, so I would hazard a guess "fundamental analysis" is required for profitability?The Silk Run wrote: ↑Sat Oct 30, 2021 7:15 pmHow about Greyhounds G, have you done any work on this genre. I have a number of winning stratergies if your interested. Of course, a donation will be required ...
I'm actually thinking the problem is "UK horses" markets are over rated, everyone wants to trade them... which makes them yes lots of volume, but lots of random/unpredictable trader crowds..
(I know i'm going on and on.... I miss not being in an office where I can actually talk to people, although maybe they don't
)
(I know i'm going on and on.... I miss not being in an office where I can actually talk to people, although maybe they don't
)6Gb of UK greyhound stream data uploaded to my backtest VM, here we go... new "dog bot" i've created in the last hour... and it's off to a flying start:
Week 1 Back : 46.89
Week 1 Lay : 59.05
Week 1 TOTAL : 105.94 for 108 bets
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Week 2 Back : 23.76
Week 2 Lay : 144.54
Week 2 TOTAL : 168.30 for 141 bets
My test framework i've written enables me to monitor a backtest progression as it goes... which is useful for cross-sample analysis, and dynamically filter the results, to see what might be better...
Week 1 Back : 46.89
Week 1 Lay : 59.05
Week 1 TOTAL : 105.94 for 108 bets
-------------------------
Week 2 Back : 23.76
Week 2 Lay : 144.54
Week 2 TOTAL : 168.30 for 141 bets
My test framework i've written enables me to monitor a backtest progression as it goes... which is useful for cross-sample analysis, and dynamically filter the results, to see what might be better...