Trading What I see !?

[stueytrader]

I'm actually thinking the problem is "UK horses" markets are over rated, everyone wants to trade them... which makes them yes lots of volume, but lots of random/unpredictable trader crowds..

I have considered whether I am also overfocused on pre race horse markets too. But the problem is I haven't yet found comfort, enough, in any other sports markets for trading.

Football seems either stodgy (doesn't move) or insider (moves when you have no clue why). When I say insider it's likely stuff like team news I am getting later than the market knows (not fixed games).
Tennis I struggle to play it - don't know why, maybe miss the trading secrets or something, though I know the game fairly well away from trading it.
Similar to Tennis - snooker.

There are others of course, but many sports are very thin for trading as a further concern - so I keep ending up relying on horse markets mostly pre race. I still do ok, but I'd like to do better than ok, if there really was a sports market I could find to beat horses.

[goat68]

I'm actually thinking the problem is "UK horses" markets are over rated, everyone wants to trade them... which makes them yes lots of volume, but lots of random/unpredictable trader crowds..

I have considered whether I am also overfocused on pre race horse markets too. But the problem is I haven't yet found comfort, enough, in any other sports markets for trading.

Football seems either stodgy (doesn't move) or insider (moves when you have no clue why). When I say insider it's likely stuff like team news I am getting later than the market knows (not fixed games).
Tennis I struggle to play it - don't know why, maybe miss the trading secrets or something, though I know the game fairly well away from trading it.
Similar to Tennis - snooker.

There are others of course, but many sports are very thin for trading as a further concern - so I keep ending up relying on horse markets mostly pre race. I still do ok, but I'd like to do better than ok, if there really was a sports market I could find to beat horses.

You make good points there, and i've sort of come to a similar conclusion for myself.
I need to find the markets that suit my style of automated trading, and I am fairly sure UK horses is not it... dogs might be, backtests seem to be going a lot better, but variance is an issue for me. My "dogbot" I was running back in September started well, then had a large drawdown, which threw me out of it... however it was probably expected variance, maybe a slightly different variant or doing sub-"min bet size" staking would have been better.

[stueytrader]

I missed out mentioning Greyhounds, though probably should have included it.

I have dabbled, but I'm nearly totally a manual trader, and find with dogs my approaches can work well for a steady time before suddenly hitting some 'disaster' markets which wipe my profits.

That is probably down to my own approaches though, and you may find some automated approaches work better there for you, as you suggest.

[goat68]

So i've got a new "model" together for some value betting, first day live and good start:

Screenshot 2021-11-07 at 15.58.53.png

[goat68]

Oh and by the way, "zero" backtesting done on this strategy

[Realrocknrolla]

Nice to see. Keep us posted.

[Trader724]

Man, if you start to rejoice in the results of a day, it means that you are going backwards, not forwards.

[goat68]

Man, if you start to rejoice in the results of a day, it means that you are going backwards, not forwards.

I obviously realise it's the first day.... the post meant to highlight i've started a new strategy...

[goat68]

Screenshot 2021-11-08 at 21.33.14.png

[Realrocknrolla]

Screenshot 2021-11-08 at 21.33.14.png

[goat68]

Screenshot 2021-11-09 at 21.11.09.png

[goat68]

Screenshot 2021-11-10 at 21.31.57.png

Just loving this variance of value betting

[LinusP]

Are you beating BSP?

[goat68]

Are you beating BSP?

So, direct answer, don't know..

However, i've been thinking about this and have some uncertainty, here's why:
- So say there's been 10,000 selections in my betting period, so yes if I was to bet on BSP on ALL 10,000 selections i'd end up with "neutral" value, and end up breakeven ignoring comms.
- Let's take the opposite end of this analogy, if I was to only bet on 10 selections out of the available 10,000 over this period. Would I end up as "neutral value"?, very likely not.
- Now let's take my current strategy, which probably bets on say 10% of selections available at most, so how "neutral" are the BSP of those "selected" 10%? Somewhat neutral possibly, but also probably somewhat off. To approach the "neutrality" of the first example, we'd need 10x more selections.
- Given i'm probably betting on 250selections/week, to approach a 10,000 sample id need to assess a period of 10months. So assessing "am I beating BSP?" after just 4 days, I think would show not a lot...?
- There's also another thought i've had, What if my strategy selection (of 10% of selections), has a BSP bias (+ev or -ev)...don't know, but that maybe possible?

You can see i've been thinking about this... and obvious unsure!
Thoughts appreciated?

[LinusP]

I see what you are saying but beating BSP will tell you if you are on to something far quicker than your pnl.