Favourites

[Iron]

Is it just my imagination, or has a higher proportion of favourites been winning in the past 2-3 months than used to be the case?

Jeff

[rubysglory]

Hi Jeff. Can't answer your question directly as generally I green / red out at 1 minute B4 the off.I then move onto the next race. I have however been keeping some stats on price movements on the favourite B4 the off. Over a sample of approx 800 races thus far, the favourite at the 5 minute warning call was shorter in price at the 1 minute warning 49% of the time. Over the longer term we could perhaps round this up to 50%. Although I perhaps should not be surprised, longterm market efficiency still amazes me.

rg

[PeterLe]

...so maybe if you only ever scalped the favorite in a downward direction 5 mins before the off (in conjunction with other market data), you should be able to create an edge perhaps??..(1% is plenty!!)

[rubysglory]

...so maybe if you only ever scalped the favorite in a downward direction 5 mins before the off (in conjunction with other market data), you should be able to create an edge perhaps??..(1% is plenty!!)

Ummm! Same thoughts here Peter. Have not yet run the data to work out + / - ticks, but got me thinking all the same.

rg

[gutuami]

Acording to bf date I'd say that's only your imagination

[Iron]

Thanks guys

Gutuami - Curiously, if you'd have backed all the selections in your spreadsheet, you'd have made a 2.59% loss, but if you'd have laid them all you'd have made a 1.93% loss.

Jeff

Acording to bf date I'd say that's only your imagination

[gutuami]

I did not make any calculation on these favorites. Because of bf commission you loose with this type of strategy.