Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

I see what you are saying but beating BSP will tell you if you are on to something far quicker than your pnl.

Thanks

Also interesting thread here, also re your comment on BSP? viewtopic.php?p=193016#p193016

[goat68]

I see what you are saying but beating BSP will tell you if you are on to something far quicker than your pnl.

My concern would however be my last point on my selection "bias", which I could measure over a significant period by measuring the BSP value of my selections, however I might as well just use my pnl over that period...

[LinusP]

I see what you are saying but beating BSP will tell you if you are on to something far quicker than your pnl.

My concern would however be my last point on my selection "bias", which I could measure over a significant period by measuring the BSP value of my selections, however I might as well just use my pnl over that period...

My point still stands, beating BSP is what you are trying to do so analyse that, the profit is a by-product.

[goat68]

I see what you are saying but beating BSP will tell you if you are on to something far quicker than your pnl.

My concern would however be my last point on my selection "bias", which I could measure over a significant period by measuring the BSP value of my selections, however I might as well just use my pnl over that period...

My point still stands, beating BSP is what you are trying to do so analyse that, the profit is a by-product.

So... just run a calculation and i'm not beating BSP as it were:
Betting Profit: +£42
Trading Profit if hedged at BSP: -£91

Hmmmm, but only 4days, so perhaps it's just an anomoly!

[goat68]

I see what you are saying but beating BSP will tell you if you are on to something far quicker than your pnl.

My concern would however be my last point on my selection "bias", which I could measure over a significant period by measuring the BSP value of my selections, however I might as well just use my pnl over that period...

My point still stands, beating BSP is what you are trying to do so analyse that, the profit is a by-product.

I'm still thinking there's something here though, as I don't think dog BSPs are necessarily accurate, maybe as a "whole" yes, but not necessarily a "sub-set"

[Realrocknrolla]

My concern would however be my last point on my selection "bias", which I could measure over a significant period by measuring the BSP value of my selections, however I might as well just use my pnl over that period...

My point still stands, beating BSP is what you are trying to do so analyse that, the profit is a by-product.

I'm still thinking there's something here though, as I don't think dog BSPs are necessarily accurate, maybe as a "whole" yes, but not necessarily a "sub-set"

You can create your own odds based on certain criteria to determine if you have value. That will come with practice.

My bookmaker friend used to do the stand at Poole dogs before it closed. He would spend hours before the meeting watching re run races and going over the cards etc. It becomes 2nd nature.

He did show me once but long ago.

I was always amazed how the bookies that write the prices down on the cards were always the same prices on the track.

Keep up the grind got.

[goat68]

You can create your own odds based on certain criteria to determine if you have value. That will come with practice.

So this is what i am trying, and am quite happy with the model at the moment, it just doesn't beat BSP at the moment as LinusP puts it...

[Realrocknrolla]

My concern would however be my last point on my selection "bias", which I could measure over a significant period by measuring the BSP value of my selections, however I might as well just use my pnl over that period...

My point still stands, beating BSP is what you are trying to do so analyse that, the profit is a by-product.

I'm still thinking there's something here though, as I don't think dog BSPs are necessarily accurate, maybe as a "whole" yes, but not necessarily a "sub-set"

You can create your own odds based on certain criteria to determine if you have value. That will come with practice.

My bookmaker friend used to do the stand at Poole dogs before it closed. He would spend hours before the meeting watching re run races and going over the cards etc. It becomes 2nd nature.

He did show me once but long ago.

I was always amazed how the bookies that write the prices down on the cards were always the same prices on the track.

Keep up the grind goat !

[Realrocknrolla]

You can create your own odds based on certain criteria to determine if you have value. That will come with practice.

So this is what i am trying, and am quite happy with the model at the moment, it just doesn't beat BSP at the moment as LinusP puts it...

If your happy then you can only improve.

[goat68]

Only -£11 today, I'll take that for a down day!

[goat68]

argh crap!

Screenshot 2021-11-13 at 20.40.53.png

[goat68]

How does anyone do this successfully I don't know...

Maybe just a poor week, will let it run....

[goat68]

A mere -£55 down so far today...
It seems previous dog form and speed is no indication of future value....
I was so sure i was picking value, but net losers seem to be getting the better of me, lay dogs i think are significant value and they go on to win....!

They say you need to find something others dont have, i think there's some secret information on some of these dogs, you look at previous form and current price and think that's far too short lay it...then it wins.....

[jamesg46]

How does anyone do this successfully I don't know...

Maybe just a poor week, will let it run....

What are you doing when you’re not beating BSP? Are you letting the bet run?.

[goat68]

How does anyone do this successfully I don't know...

Maybe just a poor week, will let it run....

What are you doing when you’re not beating BSP? Are you letting the bet run?.

My theory is for the selections i am betting on, bsp is wrong, ie has value