Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

This is what my model priced up:
Savana Morning = 5.47
Holycross Red = 5.28
Joe The Ghost = 3.85
Charlie Emtrynie = 7.69
Drovers Ash = 16.77
Days Later = 5.58

[birchy]

Wow, those unmatched bets are way off what's available, so no surprise they're not getting matched. Presumably you're leaving the bets up until the off rather than cancelling and reassessing?

Have you tried analysing your actual P&L vs "what-if" the same bets were matched at BSP?

[goat68]

So my model prices for 3 & 4 were half of what BSP thought !

[goat68]

Ive switched off the Laying for the bot, should reduce the variance a bit

[goat68]

I guess im just trying what most people do, my model maybe unique, but the idea not...

There's definitely a fine balance with trading/betting as to time and effort invested, and potential returns, the liklihood is you lose, so the investment is purely for fun of doing it....
As such im just going to let the dog back only value model bot run for a while, it's quite fun watching it's results!!

[goat68]

Im tippy toeing towards the realisation im not going to make any money at this...
So as they say,When the Fun stops, stop!

[arch4672]

I guess im just trying what most people do, my model maybe unique, but the idea not...

There's definitely a fine balance with trading/betting as to time and effort invested, and potential returns, the liklihood is you lose, so the investment is purely for fun of doing it....
As such im just going to let the dog back only value model bot run for a while, it's quite fun watching it's results!!

You're using Flumine right? Why not run it in paper trade mode? Unless you also enjoy losing money...

[goat68]

I guess im just trying what most people do, my model maybe unique, but the idea not...

There's definitely a fine balance with trading/betting as to time and effort invested, and potential returns, the liklihood is you lose, so the investment is purely for fun of doing it....
As such im just going to let the dog back only value model bot run for a while, it's quite fun watching it's results!!

You're using Flumine right? Why not run it in paper trade mode? Unless you also enjoy losing money...

Now that's a great idea, thanks
Nice one

[goat68]

Strategy re-enabled with paper_trade=True

[goat68]

Been doing some reading on greyhounds trading/betting and it's as expected far more complex than coming up with a model...
Youre right James, the market prices in the form, pace etc..so having a simple model on that will probably just bet when the model has it wrong, ie . you'll lose money.....

I think my plan has lost its way again....

[goat68]

I think these markets today are far too complex for newcomers to get on board, only those who have invested many years have a chance.....

[Realrocknrolla]

I think these markets today are far too complex for newcomers to get on board, only those who have invested many years have a chance.....

Not true.

I only came back to sports trading just over a year ago. Albeit I failed on my first attempt. I then went away and learnt as much as I could with financial trading. I took what I learnt and came back. Now on my 2nd attempt I am loving it as sport is my passion.

My biggest lessons were emotions definitely and then probably after that was FOMO.

Keep grinding goat.

[jamesg46]

Been doing some reading on greyhounds trading/betting and it's as expected far more complex than coming up with a model...
Youre right James, the market prices in the form, pace etc..so having a simple model on that will probably just bet when the model has it wrong, ie . you'll lose money.....

I think my plan has lost its way again....

The market will price form etc in but there is still value in a book that is 110 to 115% - my point is, your model could be useful in finding a selection that has potential value but if you’re betting on it when the book has shrunk to 101% then you’ve let that value pass you by.

You may only get small stakes on but with 1000s of them per week there is plenty to go at & like I said you’ll know by post if you’ve likely picked up value because if you’re in a positive position then you took value, if negative then you didn’t - we can assume that is correct because the market or BSP over time is efficient.

You’re basically running your model and trying to find value in the place where you’re least likely to find it - that’s not to say that sometimes it isn’t there but even if you did pick some up when the market gets it wrong the margin on it over the long term would probably be tiny.

[Tetras]

I think these markets today are far too complex for newcomers to get on board, only those who have invested many years have a chance.....

I know it's been said before in this thread, but it doesn't help when you keep changing ... whatever want to call it, disciplines, strategies, etc. From my perspective, the first step is to select the 'thing' that suits you, the second is to build the experience to know how/when to apply it. I'm open minded about having a model, but if it's ever going to work, it will need time and attention, there are so many variables. The selection process on your own model could be enough of a variable alone (in being overall profit/loss), or maybe your model is better at low odds than high odds.

Betting is a different animal to trading and while there are similarities, there's still a lot to learn. There's a reason there's a lot of betting activity in the market at certain times (like just after it rains) and in certain markets, for example.

I've spent over a year getting better (e.g. knowing which markets to use it, avoiding the big loss scenarios) at only one tiny way to trade pre-off, while amusing myself in-play. It took many months to be consistently profitable with it, even though it is incredibly simple.

[goat68]

Been doing some reading on greyhounds trading/betting and it's as expected far more complex than coming up with a model...
Youre right James, the market prices in the form, pace etc..so having a simple model on that will probably just bet when the model has it wrong, ie . you'll lose money.....

I think my plan has lost its way again....

The market will price form etc in but there is still value in a book that is 110 to 115% - my point is, your model could be useful in finding a selection that has potential value but if you’re betting on it when the book has shrunk to 101% then you’ve let that value pass you by.

You may only get small stakes on but with 1000s of them per week there is plenty to go at & like I said you’ll know by post if you’ve likely picked up value because if you’re in a positive position then you took value, if negative then you didn’t - we can assume that is correct because the market or BSP over time is efficient.

You’re basically running your model and trying to find value in the place where you’re least likely to find it - that’s not to say that sometimes it isn’t there but even if you did pick some up when the market gets it wrong the margin on it over the long term would probably be tiny.

thanks so get your point on BSP.
I've just been watching some races having examined previous form, and it's as if the market knows something not in the previous race history, as you say the market is surprisingly accurate! I was looking at one thinking why has the market priced it at 2.5, the other dog is equally good priced at 5, so my model would have taken a value bet on 5, the 2.5 dog romps home with a 10 length margin! (the market was right!)

I can't see how you can accurately create a price model given the apparent unknowns. I could take my model and half the time have the wrong price, think it's value... and make a loss consistently...