Trading What I see !?

[Kai]

How's you Kai? Recovered from celebrating yet?!

Qualifying for Qatar? I don't watch the national team anymore unless it's Euro/WC. I only watch Liverpool and AFC Richmond as of late

[Bubace]

This is mentally stressing me out, i don't want give up as ive put so much effort in, yet I probably should

Hey Goat

i don't post much on here, but i think you and i started our journeys around the same time, and we had sent a couple of pm trying to help each other.

Around November last year i had a moment of clarity after watching one of peters videos about just sticking to one thing. I had previously seen it but hadn't paid attention, so decided i was just going to back the favourite that was going to come in, that was it, nothing else.

so i spent many weeks just watching and recording markets where this happened, i started a spread sheet and added my thoughts and notes to each of the steamers and assigned the corresponding video to it, then when i had a decent amount of videos i went back to the start and reviewed them all to see if my opinion had changed

i then went and wrote a set of rules, like fav has to between x and y, book percentage has to be over x of first 3 horses, and only back when x and y happen.

and pretty much straight away my strike rate was decent, and then with more confidence i added in rules for second fav, and then 3rd fav, but also which i hadn't thought about it gave me a real understanding of when to dump the position to cut losses and when to stay in as it was just noise, and I've just being doing that everyday for a year now, i never ever lay, and i know my strategy doesn't throw up tons of opportunities every day, but there's enough and I'm consistently profitable, maybe in another year ill look at adding in another strategy

i guess what I'm trying to say is, find one thing that you want to do and stick to it, as you do seem to swap and change a lot, and that will never work, remember its money! its a serious business, its peoples livelihoods, you cant just expect to knock up a bot in 3 weeks and be taking money off people, that are to be honest taking it a lot more seriously than you

[goat68]

Thanks for the tips guys, think i'm having a "moment"...!
I'm going to try to stick to uk dogs and modelling, keep banging away at it... I've realized my fundamental mistake that James and Linus pointed out, I was theorising that BSP can be quite wrong sometimes and my model knew better! It's quite clear as the market forms the BSP is formed in the gap based on market opinion, and will generally be right, so over the medium/long term beating BSP is the aim.

[goat68]

Being reading and watching some videos on greyhound uk betting/trading, and there seems quite a bit of concern around it being "bent"/"cheating"... Insiders with internal knowledge putting the money on in the last 60seconds. Sort of ties in with what i've seen with previous form baring no resemblance sometimes to the prices...
Presumably one could spot/follow this behaviour/insider...?

[goat68]

There seems to be a view greyhounds is mostly bots v bots may the best bot win!

[goat68]

Betting's DOOMed ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLMyJ6HJkh0

[ShaunWhite]

Being reading and watching some videos on greyhound uk betting/trading, and there seems quite a bit of concern around it being "bent"/"cheating".

Dogs have always been bent. Owners/trainers certainly aren't paying their bills on the ten bob prize money.

If you want to know about dogs talk to Memphis.

[Kai]

Hey Goat

i don't post much on here, but i think you and i started our journeys around the same time, and we had sent a couple of pm trying to help each other.

Around November last year i had a moment of clarity after watching one of peters videos about just sticking to one thing. I had previously seen it but hadn't paid attention, so decided i was just going to back the favourite that was going to come in, that was it, nothing else.

so i spent many weeks just watching and recording markets where this happened, i started a spread sheet and added my thoughts and notes to each of the steamers and assigned the corresponding video to it, then when i had a decent amount of videos i went back to the start and reviewed them all to see if my opinion had changed

i then went and wrote a set of rules, like fav has to between x and y, book percentage has to be over x of first 3 horses, and only back when x and y happen.

and pretty much straight away my strike rate was decent, and then with more confidence i added in rules for second fav, and then 3rd fav, but also which i hadn't thought about it gave me a real understanding of when to dump the position to cut losses and when to stay in as it was just noise, and I've just being doing that everyday for a year now, i never ever lay, and i know my strategy doesn't throw up tons of opportunities every day, but there's enough and I'm consistently profitable, maybe in another year ill look at adding in another strategy

i guess what I'm trying to say is, find one thing that you want to do and stick to it, as you do seem to swap and change a lot, and that will never work, remember its money! its a serious business, its peoples livelihoods, you cant just expect to knock up a bot in 3 weeks and be taking money off people, that are to be honest taking it a lot more seriously than you

Well done Bubace, underrated comment

In other words, you've done the legwork and you deserve some of the reward for it. Something as simple as observing the market as a neutral can bring a fresh market perspective, compared to just endlessly viewing the market from the same narrow angle and being stuck managing the same positions over and over. Sometimes when stuck or looking for inspiration it might be better to just watch the market unfold from a neutral POV, it's easier to scan for opportunities and strategies without the burden and tunnelvision of managing bad positions. Surely it's better for the market to show you where the opportunities are and to give you hints and clues, than blindly taking other people's word for it.

Because let's face it, what people most often do is just cast a wide net of strategies and then just "hope" they catch something, but this approach is far too superficial. I really don't see how someone could crack the market efficiency like that, without actually looking deeper into it to see what makes the market tick, if you'll excuse the accidental pun.

[goat68]

Progressing my Greyhound model, one step at a time... testing forward using Paper trading.
Still negative, but less so!

[ShaunWhite]

Progressing my Greyhound model

Have you noticed how unusual dog markets have been recently? No idea what you're doing or if you've seen it but it might skew your results. A couple of metrics I use to check they're behaving normally are miles off incl...

Screenshot_31.jpg

[Realrocknrolla]

Progressing my Greyhound model

Have you noticed how unusual dog markets have been recently? No idea what you're doing or if you've seen it but it might skew your results. A couple of metrics I use to check they're behaving normally are miles off incl...
Screenshot_31.jpg

That’s mental.

[goat68]

Progressing my Greyhound model

Have you noticed how unusual dog markets have been recently? No idea what you're doing or if you've seen it but it might skew your results. A couple of metrics I use to check they're behaving normally are miles off incl...
Screenshot_31.jpg

Interesting!
So i've not got the mechanics to detect this, but i'm sort of not surprised slightly. From watching loads of races and reading up about how the sport is run, I can wonder a couple of things that may cause this. The bent/crooked aspect some people elude to, has someone(s) started doing something strange that's fooling the market...? Or alternatively, from what i've read track day Race Managers have the authority to "squeue" the races as a sort of "handicapping", eg.putting dogs in non-favoured traps, or mixing race selection to make things interesting, and probably other things I don't even know about.........! So has there been a concencus change in race manager policy the "market" doesn't know about?

[Realrocknrolla]

I know betfair have had problems this week with there form page. And I believe today is the 5th day.

The weather has also changed this week

[ShaunWhite]

Progressing my Greyhound model

Have you noticed how unusual dog markets have been recently?
Screenshot_31.jpg

So i've not got the mechanics to detect this,

It's a 2min job. Just assume you've had £1 on everything (improving the prices by the overround)

It's another finger in the wind esp when looking at straight betting to see if you've got something or if backing/laying blind would have made/lost anyway. Just lately anyone with a lay strategy is going to be thinking they're a genius. Not totally conclusive but adds to your confidence/doubt for almost no effort.

[goat68]

Have you noticed how unusual dog markets have been recently?
Screenshot_31.jpg

So i've not got the mechanics to detect this,

It's a 2min job. Just assume you've had £1 on everything (improving the prices by the overround)

It's another finger in the wind esp when looking at straight betting to see if you've got something or if backing/laying blind would have made/lost anyway. Just lately anyone with a lay strategy is going to be thinking they're a genius. Not totally conclusive but adds to your confidence/doubt for almost no effort.

thanks Shaun,

So I can just run an empty strategy that records BSP and winner, and track over time...
Then pretend £1 on each at BSP.

cheers