Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

So i've had a new greyhound model strategy running on "paper" the last 2 days, just checked it:
Current "trading" performance with hedge just before off time:
Week 1 Back : 110.61
Week 1 Lay : -105.78
Week 1 TOTAL : 4.83 for 563 bets

Here's "betting" performance if I filter out the hedge, would be nice if that continued
Week 1 Back : 214.91
Week 1 Lay : 92.66
Week 1 TOTAL : 307.57 for 337 bets

[Realrocknrolla]

So i've had a new greyhound model strategy running on "paper" the last 2 days, just checked it:
Current "trading" performance with hedge just before off time:
Week 1 Back : 110.61
Week 1 Lay : -105.78
Week 1 TOTAL : 4.83 for 563 bets

Here's "betting" performance if I filter out the hedge, would be nice if that continued
Week 1 Back : 214.91
Week 1 Lay : 92.66
Week 1 TOTAL : 307.57 for 337 bets

No brainer!

[goat68]

So i've had a new greyhound model strategy running on "paper" the last 2 days, just checked it:
Current "trading" performance with hedge just before off time:
Week 1 Back : 110.61
Week 1 Lay : -105.78
Week 1 TOTAL : 4.83 for 563 bets

Here's "betting" performance if I filter out the hedge, would be nice if that continued
Week 1 Back : 214.91
Week 1 Lay : 92.66
Week 1 TOTAL : 307.57 for 337 bets

No brainer!

Cross everything and jump you mean!

[goat68]

Well that was short lived!
Hedged trade:
Week 1 Back : 323.57
Week 1 Lay : -322.15
Week 1 TOTAL : 1.42 for 780 bets

Betting:
Week 1 Back : 215.72
Week 1 Lay : -119.30
Week 1 TOTAL : 96.42 for 470 bets

[arch4672]

Progressing my Greyhound model

Have you noticed how unusual dog markets have been recently? No idea what you're doing or if you've seen it but it might skew your results. A couple of metrics I use to check they're behaving normally are miles off incl...
Screenshot_31.jpg

If you don't mind sharing, what other metrics do you look at?

[goat68]

But it's ok, I can simple filter the past, looks much better then:
Trading, Back's only, for odds over 6.4:
Week 1 Back : 118.09
Week 1 Lay : -61.60
Week 1 TOTAL : 56.49 for 270 bets

[goat68]

Over 6.4, because over 6.0 is awful!
Week 1 Back : 92.12
Week 1 Lay : -134.24
Week 1 TOTAL : -42.12 for 298 bets

[goat68]

So: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZEiNaXVWSw
that doesn't quite mean remove trades between odds 6.0->6.4 does it?
(I realise that!)
So I need to ask myself what fundamental thing isn't working that I can remove

[goat68]

Another picture from my world:
PROFIT BANDS: range : PnL : num_bets
Profit 3.10-3.20 : -6.67 : 3
Profit 3.30-3.40 : 0.11 : 2
Profit 3.40-3.50 : 6.10 : 1
Profit 3.50-3.60 : 7.64 : 1
Profit 3.60-3.70 : -39.55 : 9
Profit 3.70-3.80 : -7.76 : 4
Profit 3.90-4.00 : 17.68 : 6
Profit 4.00-4.10 : 33.40 : 3
Profit 4.10-4.20 : -3.08 : 1
Profit 4.20-4.30 : -6.39 : 4
Profit 4.30-4.40 : 4.78 : 6
Profit 4.40-4.50 : 28.10 : 7
Profit 4.50-4.60 : -5.28 : 1
Profit 4.60-4.70 : -3.98 : 3
Profit 4.70-4.80 : 20.55 : 7
Profit 4.80-4.90 : -3.56 : 6
Profit 4.90-5.00 : 4.69 : 3
Profit 5.00-5.10 : -1.37 : 5
Profit 5.10-5.20 : 0.00 : 2
Profit 5.20-5.30 : -16.36 : 3
Profit 5.30-5.40 : -23.10 : 6
Profit 5.40-5.50 : -26.84 : 6
Profit 5.50-5.60 : 7.18 : 10
Profit 5.70-5.80 : -25.85 : 5
Profit 5.80-5.90 : 13.63 : 1
Profit 5.90-6.00 : 2.04 : 10
Profit 6.00-6.10 : 26.40 : 4
Profit 6.20-6.30 : -77.86 : 16
Profit 6.40-6.50 : 56.79 : 9
Profit 6.60-6.70 : 7.65 : 11
Profit 6.80-6.90 : 2.82 : 9
Profit 7.00-7.10 : 5.13 : 7
Profit 7.20-7.30 : -0.82 : 9
Profit 7.40-7.50 : 12.51 : 6
Profit 7.60-7.70 : -2.57 : 5
Profit 7.80-7.90 : 19.90 : 13
Profit 8.00-8.10 : -2.71 : 3
Profit 8.20-8.30 : 5.22 : 7
Profit 8.40-8.50 : 17.53 : 4
Profit 8.60-8.70 : -18.68 : 6
Profit 8.80-8.90 : -2.72 : 4
Profit 9.00-9.10 : 0.71 : 2
Profit 9.20-9.30 : 6.79 : 4
Profit 9.40-9.50 : -2.27 : 1
Profit 9.60-9.70 : -5.30 : 7
Profit 9.80-9.90 : 22.26 : 3
Profit 10.00-10.10 : 9.96 : 2
Profit 10.50-10.60 : -25.58 : 12
Profit 11.00-11.10 : -50.66 : 8
Profit 11.50-11.60 : 2.31 : 8
Profit 12.00-12.10 : -23.68 : 13
Profit 12.50-12.60 : -0.04 : 10
Profit 13.00-13.10 : 20.67 : 14
Profit 13.50-13.60 : 7.90 : 4
Profit 14.00-14.10 : 1.16 : 6
Profit 14.50-14.60 : 16.56 : 9
Profit 15.00-15.10 : -0.75 : 9
Profit 15.50-15.60 : -2.53 : 6
Profit 16.00-16.10 : 2.03 : 3
Profit 16.50-16.60 : -7.88 : 5
Profit 17.00-17.10 : 2.47 : 3
Profit 17.50-17.60 : 13.20 : 4
Profit 18.00-18.10 : -16.62 : 5
Profit 19.00-19.10 : -0.39 : 2
Profit 19.50-19.60 : -1.09 : 1
Profit 20.00-20.10 : 1.19 : 1
Profit 21.00-21.10 : 11.16 : 10
Profit 22.00-22.10 : -0.10 : 1
Profit 23.00-23.10 : -0.31 : 1
Profit 25.00-25.10 : 2.90 : 2
Profit 26.00-26.10 : -3.16 : 5
Profit 28.00-28.10 : -2.18 : 2
Profit 29.00-29.10 : 1.03 : 4
Profit 32.00-32.10 : 2.93 : 4
Profit 34.00-34.10 : -0.54 : 1

[Realrocknrolla]

Be careful of data mining.

[arch4672]

So: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZEiNaXVWSw
that doesn't quite mean remove trades between odds 6.0->6.4 does it?
(I realise that!)
So I need to ask myself what fundamental thing isn't working that I can remove

Do you actually think you've got enough data to make any conclusions? Maybe come back to it in a few months?

[goat68]

So: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZEiNaXVWSw
that doesn't quite mean remove trades between odds 6.0->6.4 does it?
(I realise that!)
So I need to ask myself what fundamental thing isn't working that I can remove

Do you actually think you've got enough data to make any conclusions? Maybe come back to it in a few months?

You've just pre-empted my next post !

[goat68]

Be careful of data mining.

yeah, I know, was sort of making a point!

[goat68]

In reality, as arch.. said, lets see where this goes...
I can't judge my model or how i'm using it at the moment

[goat68]

just reset strategy, going to run it in parallel with the same strategy but hedging at "roughly" BSP instead of just before off time, so:
paper_strat1: trading, hedging at -10seconds
paper_strat2: trading, hedging at "roughly" BSP
When I say roughly, that's because I don't exactly know what BSP will be hence stake size to hedge is a rough guess...