Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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goat68
Posts: 2038
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

foxwood wrote:
Sat Dec 11, 2021 12:06 pm
goat68 wrote:
Fri Dec 10, 2021 4:00 pm
Did some tweaks to the bot execution last night, got a reasonable improvement, green and yellow, over blue and red.
bottom two are 1x stake, top double stakes:
Screenshot 2021-12-10 at 15.59.01.png
In my head, doubling your stake should double your PL but that's not what the graphs are showing.

What am I missing - presumably some sort of variable or loss recovery staking plan ?

If so, what happens with level staking ?
Doubling stake definitely doesn't double pnl, it's harder to get more matched
User avatar
goat68
Posts: 2038
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

foxwood wrote:
Sat Dec 11, 2021 12:06 pm
goat68 wrote:
Fri Dec 10, 2021 4:00 pm
Did some tweaks to the bot execution last night, got a reasonable improvement, green and yellow, over blue and red.
bottom two are 1x stake, top double stakes:
Screenshot 2021-12-10 at 15.59.01.png
In my head, doubling your stake should double your PL but that's not what the graphs are showing.

What am I missing - presumably some sort of variable or loss recovery staking plan ?

If so, what happens with level staking ?
If you think about it im trying to get money matched at a price for my opponents loss and my profit, so asking for double is greedy and harder...
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napshnap
Posts: 1228
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:21 am

...
Last edited by napshnap on Sat Dec 11, 2021 1:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Kai
Posts: 7078
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

napshnap wrote:
Sat Dec 11, 2021 1:40 pm
goat68 wrote:
Fri Dec 10, 2021 7:07 pm
...
So i'm going to grab a glass of port and watch a new episode of The Expanse!
Damn, I'm so angry about what they did to Alex!!!
Oi, no spoiler talk please. I only did the first season :|
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napshnap
Posts: 1228
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:21 am

Kai wrote:
Sat Dec 11, 2021 1:47 pm
napshnap wrote:
Sat Dec 11, 2021 1:40 pm
goat68 wrote:
Fri Dec 10, 2021 7:07 pm
...
So i'm going to grab a glass of port and watch a new episode of The Expanse!
Damn, I'm so angry about what they did to Alex!!!
Oi, no spoiler talk please. I only did the first season :|
I'm sorry, Kai. It's just... this "gender change" things are pissing me off, I know it's "a far future" but... You should make a spoiler about some serial that I'm planning to watch, like... "Better call Saul" last season.
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Kai
Posts: 7078
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

napshnap wrote:
Sat Dec 11, 2021 2:05 pm
Kai wrote:
Sat Dec 11, 2021 1:47 pm
napshnap wrote:
Sat Dec 11, 2021 1:40 pm

Damn, I'm so angry about what they did to Alex!!!
Oi, no spoiler talk please. I only did the first season :|
I'm sorry, Kai. It's just... this "gender change" things are pissing me off, I know it's "a far future" but...
Image
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goat68
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Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

Just checked up on how the greyhound bot is doing, and a nasty loss -£22 on Swindon 11:58, and i've learned something about dogs from that. If a dog is removed, then any bets prior to the removal are Voided on ALL dogs. My strategy thought the Lay bet was still matched, placed the Back bet hedge which lost, but Lay bet had been Voided!
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 10455
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

goat68 wrote:
Mon Dec 13, 2021 12:32 pm
My strategy thought the Lay bet was still matched, placed the Back bet hedge which lost, but Lay bet had been Voided!
They probably voided after you placed your back bet rather than you needing to make sure you're doing a position check before placing it. If it was a late withdrawal there wouldn't have been time to reform the market, and following a withdrawal obviously all bets need to be voided not just those on the withdrawn dog. Not quite the same on horses because they can use a Rule 4 deduction in that situation.

Fortunately issues like this aren't a big deal long-term, some day's you're up, some you're down. And it's only a -£22 if you're still using your PnL as a measure of performance, a straight sp bet like the one you had should show up as a scratch on the numbers that actually matter.
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goat68
Posts: 2038
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

"Progress doesn't feel like progress when you first start trading. That's why so many people quit before they truly understand what their true objective is when trading."

this is so true, feeling beaten down at the moment, greyhound bot strategy that looks good on backtest starting off with -£50 after 10days, but I know that is within the realm of expected, so all is good :|
foxwood
Posts: 431
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:54 pm

goat68 wrote:
Sat Dec 11, 2021 12:18 pm
Doubling stake definitely doesn't double pnl, it's harder to get more matched
Didn't realize you were live - thought this was more backtesting - must have missed a chapter ;)

As Shaun said, swings and roundabouts with withdrawals on dogs - could have been a winner instead.
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Realrocknrolla
Posts: 1910
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm

goat68 wrote:
Tue Dec 14, 2021 9:51 am
"Progress doesn't feel like progress when you first start trading. That's why so many people quit before they truly understand what their true objective is when trading."

this is so true, feeling beaten down at the moment, greyhound bot strategy that looks good on backtest starting off with -£50 after 10days, but I know that is within the realm of expected, so all is good :|
You’re not losing…

You are gaining experience.
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goat68
Posts: 2038
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

foxwood wrote:
Tue Dec 14, 2021 9:54 am
goat68 wrote:
Sat Dec 11, 2021 12:18 pm
Doubling stake definitely doesn't double pnl, it's harder to get more matched
Didn't realize you were live - thought this was more backtesting - must have missed a chapter ;)

As Shaun said, swings and roundabouts with withdrawals on dogs - could have been a winner instead.
oh yeah I know, if it had won i'd be £60 up !
Anyway, i've patched that issue in the strategy now, so something learned at a cheap cost of £22! An example of something that only shows when live.
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goat68
Posts: 2038
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

foxwood wrote:
Tue Dec 14, 2021 9:54 am
goat68 wrote:
Sat Dec 11, 2021 12:18 pm
Doubling stake definitely doesn't double pnl, it's harder to get more matched
Didn't realize you were live - thought this was more backtesting - must have missed a chapter ;)
keep up :D
I've got paper and live in parallel
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goat68
Posts: 2038
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

My wonderful new GH strategy now -£100 over last 2 weeks, i'm not going to look at that negatively though, it's just a drawdown, admittedly larger and longer than any in the 6month backtest (max -£75, longest 7days)
foxwood
Posts: 431
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:54 pm

goat68 wrote:
Thu Dec 16, 2021 4:44 pm
My wonderful new GH strategy now -£100 over last 2 weeks, i'm not going to look at that negatively though, it's just a drawdown, admittedly larger and longer than any in the 6month backtest (max -£75, longest 7days)
So, if you add the last 2 weeks data to your backtest and run it again what does it say "should" have happened in the last 2 weeks ? Does your backtest match the real world - and what does the "paper" version say should happen ?
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