forgot to say, the tweaks i've done are from recent observation of losing bets, so not from backtest, so might not be all that bad...ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 5:53 pmIf it was OK for 6 months and ify for just 2 weeks I'd be very reluctant to try and force fit the 2 week sample into the 6 month sample. #1 would be to find out why the 2 weeks were different and hopefully end up with 2 variations for the 2 sets of conditions. Or #2 I'd leave what appears to be promising on a watching brief while I carried on work on another idea, then make a decision in a month or two.
It's always a good idea to have a number of things at various stages of development so you don't get rushed into making changes to your one thing.
Trading What I see !?
so you're right as ever Shaun, i've tweaked the tweak, based on what i've seen in the last 2weeks, but in the theme of the 6months. OMG: just reading that sounds like back fittingShaunWhite wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 5:53 pmIf it was OK for 6 months and ify for just 2 weeks I'd be very reluctant to try and force fit the 2 week sample into the 6 month sample. #1 would be to find out why the 2 weeks were different and hopefully end up with 2 variations for the 2 sets of conditions. Or #2 I'd leave what appears to be promising on a watching brief while I carried on work on another idea, then make a decision in a month or two.
It's always a good idea to have a number of things at various stages of development so you don't get rushed into making changes to your one thing.
imho you are overstaking and possibly affecting the market - the fact that you doubled stakes but not profits implies that the market doesn't want your money / price offer - or at least not all of it.
Are your losers fully/more matched but your winners only part matched ie are other people seeing value in the offers that you are losing on and ignoring the others ?
Since all your offer is not taken then that explains why the real world / backtest mirror each other - the backtest is including your bets - can you eliminate them to see if the backtest then works profitably again without you there.
Hope that makes sense at this time of night
PS are you / should you be using TakeSP - consider with and without - can make a big difference
Are your losers fully/more matched but your winners only part matched ie are other people seeing value in the offers that you are losing on and ignoring the others ?
Since all your offer is not taken then that explains why the real world / backtest mirror each other - the backtest is including your bets - can you eliminate them to see if the backtest then works profitably again without you there.
Hope that makes sense at this time of night
PS are you / should you be using TakeSP - consider with and without - can make a big difference
hi, appreciate your helpfoxwood wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:05 amimho you are overstaking and possibly affecting the market - the fact that you doubled stakes but not profits implies that the market doesn't want your money / price offer - or at least not all of it.
Are your losers fully/more matched but your winners only part matched ie are other people seeing value in the offers that you are losing on and ignoring the others ?
Since all your offer is not taken then that explains why the real world / backtest mirror each other - the backtest is including your bets - can you eliminate them to see if the backtest then works profitably again without you there.
Hope that makes sense at this time of night
PS are you / should you be using TakeSP - consider with and without - can make a big difference
i'm actually using just above min Betfair stakes
i'm staking £20 back+lay liability, and my average market win is £1.94, avg loss -£2.54
so for example, for a 5.0 priced dog, i'm staking £5, if I stake anything lower towards £10 liability when I get a few quid unmatched say only £8 liability, then I can't easily hedge.
I could do the place at 1000.0, change size and move BA jiggery pokery, but that can actually get a bit messy if you try coding it yourself.
Can 't say i've seen much matching difference
I am using TakeSP yes.
cheers
G
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10453
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Still don't see why you can't use £10 liability. If you stake £100 and get £1 matched its no different to staking £5 and getting £1 matched? Staking £20 won't give you more matches >=£10 than staking £10. You'll only get what you're given.goat68 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:31 ami'm actually using just above min Betfair stakes
i'm staking £20 back+lay liability, and my average market win is £1.94, avg loss -£2.54
so for example, for a 5.0 priced dog, i'm staking £5, if I stake anything lower towards £10 liability when I get a few quid unmatched say only £8 liability, then I can't easily hedge.
i'll run a backtest now using £10, see what it looks likeShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 3:09 pmStill don't see why you can't use £10 liability. If you stake £100 and get £1 matched its no different to staking £5 and getting £1 matched? Staking £20 won't give you more matches >=£10 than staking £10. You'll only get what you're given.goat68 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:31 ami'm actually using just above min Betfair stakes
i'm staking £20 back+lay liability, and my average market win is £1.94, avg loss -£2.54
so for example, for a 5.0 priced dog, i'm staking £5, if I stake anything lower towards £10 liability when I get a few quid unmatched say only £8 liability, then I can't easily hedge.
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10453
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
It's tricky to compare these lines with when they don't have date on the x axis. The upswings and downswings don't line up?
Btw do you sort them by other characteristics? Eg price, race grade, time of day, amount matched, signal strength etc?