True odds calculation

[goat68]

When you dig a bit deeper in the Hong Kong betting syndicates, most of them never 'beat' the book as it was pool betting. So there wasn't a counterparty as such.

But most of the money they made was by betting close to breakeven and getting a rebate. So nearly all the yield they got was through the rebate, not calculating then placing value bets and being better than average.

When you are getting a 5% rebate, you it makes it so much easier to beat the market!!! If I could get back £50 for every £1k staked I'd be buying football clubs left right and centre!

thanks Peter, I didn't realise this, I just did some googling and it's interesting there's only a few places that mention Billy made most of his money from his good rebates, same also for Zeljko Ranogajec.
I guess the only clever bit was realising this, and being able to gather the necessary "volume" for the betting pools to give him those generous discounts. Like you say Peter, he found an "Opportunity" !
but he's no where near as clever as I originally thought he was!

[goat68]

As the hysterical methods above elude to, finding a complicated model is not going to make you rich, one thing i'm learning is it is how you use it. That word "Opportunity" rears its head again, I realised my greyhound odds model wasn't going to make me money as a straight out value finder, as over the long run the market is more accurate. It did however hopefully help me find an "Opportunity", but keep tuned to "Trading What I see!" and i'll let you know in 3months time if it in fact was one...
(not that i'm trying to get the page count up on my thread, I have Today's Football in sight!! )

[Euler]

thanks Peter, I didn't realise this, I just did some googling and it's interesting there's only a few places that mention Billy made most of his money from his good rebates, same also for Zeljko Ranogajec.

Yes, they all did the same thing.

I always think these sorts of things are interesting. If there is one thing I've learnt about the markets and the way people think is that people like to reach an outcome then build and construct a narrative around it. Facts get lost along the way. Detaching yourself to an objective viewpoint is hard work, but much more enlightening.

[azfyazfy]

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[goat68]

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So that article : https://researchbank.swinburne.edu.au/f ... rsion).pdf
is talking about different methods of converting what "Bookmakers calculate as the true odds based on their data/info/modelling", to what Bookmakers then offer to punters with an overround. Similarly, this can be applied in reverse to go the other way...

So not sure what you're asking, are you a Bookmaker, wanting to offer your own odds? and thus working out the best way of overrounding?

[goat68]

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as the article states: " This was successfully used when supplying real time odds to a leading bookmarker"

[azfyazfy]

I really need the power method formula in Excel sheet.
Please help

[arch4672]

There isn't a formula to go from bookies odds to the 'true' odds with the power method. You have to use an iterative method to find the value of the power.

I know there are python libraries that can do it. I don't know if you can do it in Excel, maybe it's possible with the solver.

[goat68]

There isn't a formula to go from bookies odds to the 'true' odds with the power method. You have to use an iterative method to find the value of the power.

I know there are python libraries that can do it. I don't know if you can do it in Excel, maybe it's possible with the solver.

Don't you have to make an assumption here that a given Bookie is using the power method? or is that well known?

[arch4672]

No idea, but that wasn't the question.

[goat68]

I really need the power method formula in Excel sheet.
Please help

I'm not an Excel wiz, but in Python it wouldn't be too hard to do an iterative solver of (1/x^k) of the Bookie prices solving for best fit "k" where sum of Bookie True odds == 1.0.

[goat68]

No idea, but that wasn't the question.

true, I guess I was inferring that!

[arch4672]

Exactly, that's all it is.

[azfyazfy]

I successfully made the additive method in Excel but I am not understanding power method calculation

[Derek27]

Are you trying to calculate the true chances based on the bookies odds?